Sunday, June 18, 2006

Is Microsoft At A Turning Point?

There is nary a company that elicits such emotional responses as Microsoft. Most people either love or hate the company and its products. With the introduction of PCs and handhelds into the mainsteam consumer space everyone fancies themselves a technologist from Wall Street to hedge fund managers to the every day consumer. But most really understand very little as it pertains to technology or Microsoft.

Something extremely significant happened a few days ago. After years of plodding along as a brute rather than an innovator under the leadership of Gates and Ballmer, a new face emerged. The face of Ray Ozzie. Amongst all software eggheads, Ray is somewhat of a god. He has transformed himself, the companies he has worked for, the technology industry and business with his products many times with his laser like vision for creative change. Ray may be the most impactful figure in software on earth today. And before joining Darth Vader at Microsoft, he had fought the good fight successfully time and again causing Microsoft fits.

But now, Ray is responsible for the technology roadmap of one of the most powerful companies on earth inheriting the mantle from the evil doer himself, Bill Gates. You see, technologists have understood since the beginning, Bill was a master marketeer but not a technical genius. What does it possibly mean to have a creative genius at the helm of the world's richest company?

I have no doubt Ray's entrance into Microsoft was with a promise this day would come. Ray's latest company was acquired by Microsoft a few years ago. And it was a marriage made in heaven with smiles all the way around. But why would Ray join what he has shunned his whole career? Ray has never been a big bureaucracy boy and when IBM acquired his greatest invention of the time, Lotus Notes, Ray couldn't be bought along with the software. Frankly, that is one reason why IBM has screwed up Lotus notes and never been ahead of the curve with their software architecture. So, why'd he stay with Microsoft? For this day which was undoubtedly promised to him. Hey, would you turn down the chance to be the chief software architect for, arguably, the most powerful IT company on earth?

Now, there has been little press with this announcement. There was quite a bit of fanfare that Gates was giving up the role of Chief Software Architect but that was more along the lines of what will Microsoft do without him? And if Ballmer is shown the door or another new junior face emerges in a role to be groomed to replace Ballmer, Microsoft is going to be back in the game big time. You see, we are likely on the verge of great change as it pertains to the internet. The experience today is extremely crude. It is where corporate IT was thirty years ago as far as maturity. So, who has the resources and breadth of capabilities to be a(the) leader in transforming the internet into a rich content experience? Microsoft.

Most people think of Microsoft as a desktop operating system or spreadsheet company. Well they are. But Microsoft has so much intellectual capital that is available via products and services that it boggles the mind. There are literally over a thousand products from security to wireless to server software to gaming to systems management to education to server middleware to server database software to applications to productivity tools to operating systems to consulting services to web tools to application development to paid search to portals to digital rights management to handhelds to entertainment and on and on and on. They are far from "tied" to the desktop although it is a cash cow of enormous proportions. To the contrary, Microsoft is also the global leader in server licenses. Guess what is behind all of those web pages? Servers. Just an example of many fallacies about Microsoft.

So, to now have a genius and visionary like Ray Ozzie setting Microsoft's software strategy is a day many companies will fear. Will Microsoft become the visionary and innovator in the new growth areas on the net and within software? I don't know but the world just got alot more interesting.

Microsoft suffers from big company disease. They have become like IBM, GM or Ford. Companies which start out being quick, nimble and creative turn into slow moving monoliths which use their weight and influence to drive their business rather than what made them successful. Every once in a while a leader comes around which can unlock the talent contained within a company as rich as Microsoft and make the elephant dance at break neck speed. In today's global business, the undisputed leader with this talent is Carlos Ghosn at Nissan and now Nissan and Renault. Ray Ozzie does not have the skills necessary to be that person at Microsoft on the business side but he does on the innovation and product side. Will his persona and creative leadership unlock the juices at Microsoft's labs? So, the key question in my mind is if Ozzie's leadership of the geek squad is going to be married with just as dynamic a face on the business side. If so, beware of the sleeping giant.
posted by TimingLogic at 6:02 PM