Friday, October 24, 2014

Reality Starts To Reveal Itself: Amazon Craters On Massive Loss

"The Company believes it will incur substantial losses for the foreseeable future... the rate at which such losses will be incurred will increase significantly."

Not to say I told you so, but I told you so.  Amazon’s impending doom has graced this blog many times including detailed remarks about its curious business model.  If you want to actually call it that.  It’s business model is clearly unsustainable at best and a Ponzi Scheme at worst.   Additionally, when Amazon was actually profitable, it was discounting earnings of 1,500 years.  Or, if discounted in arrears, back to the age of Elmer Fuddstone and saber-toothed bunny rabbits.   Since it has been reporting large losses, it isn’t discounting anything.  It’s business model is arguably broken and always has been.  It’s also arguable that the company isn’t worth more than its receivables, inventory, its distribution system and a few other tangible assets.  By the way, I wouldn’t bet their vaunted distribution system is worth much of anything.  We have a massive bubble in the square footage of distribution facilities in this nation.  Pretty soon the rising value of a Big Mac will cross the falling value of these facilities.  Maybe if Amazon fails, the homeless whom they employ for nonliving wages can turn the facilities into condos with rent-seeking financing from private equity.  Then the homeless can become slum lords like Goldman Sachs and the Blackstone Group.  Well, and of course, Amazon.

I am dubious Amazon will survive the next ten years.  Hey, Amazon’s business is a great deal for consumers.  (Not so much for citizens or democracy.)  No taxes in many states, free shipping with a minimum purchase and you get to buy products that Amazon will sell you at a loss.  But, they make it up in volume.   What isn’t there to love?  Anytime someone wants to give me something for nothing, I would be more than happy to accept it.   Isn’t that now the American way since moochers and parasites run our nation?   Why actually toil at making anything if all you need to do is fire up the Federal Reserve’s printer?  I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.

This is a company that is intrinsically worth almost nothing.  Yet just recently it traded for $400 a share and a staggering market capitalization greater than most nations’ GDP.  Just before the Fed turned on the spigot in 2008 it was trading at less than $30.   Last night and this morning Amazon stock fell by nearly as much as it was worth just a few years ago.   It’s still trading near $300 even though it has been and still is bleeding massive red ink.  At least when it was at $30 a share it was making a small profit.   Interestingly,  today a CNBC toadie wrote that everyone is wrong about Amazon and what a great buy it is.   Of course, with the rationalization that profit isn’t Amazon’s focus.  Umm, let’s see.  How many 5 cent cups of coffee can you buy without profit?  That would be zero.   This is part of the new age Wall Street crowd of Ivy League-educated MBAs (MBA are also a bubble as noted on here over the years) that eschew reality and instead embraces ignorance and rationalizations that are so typical of systemic incompetence.  Hierarchical.  Institutionalized.  Self-granted, class-based incompetence.  

The stock market reflects absolutely no reality other than it is a manifestation of the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen.  Fair value for the Dow could be as low as 1000 if this Humpty Dumpty completely unwinds.   Wall Street has simply been riding a wave of useless money for decades.  It is institutionalized, clueless and wildly incompetent.  

A

Chart of Amazon.  What exactly changed from 2006 when it was making money, the economy had an illusory view of strength and Amazon stock was under $30.  Today, the company is and has been bleeding red ink and the value of the company was $400 not too long ago.  The difference is the wall of useless dirty money driving financially-traded assets.  That’s it.    If I use Amazon’s stock price as a mechanism of the value of money, the value of the U.S. dollar dropped by more than 95% between 2006 and early 2014.  

It’s good to be the king.  Not much longer though.  Karma is a bitch.

posted by TimingLogic at 11:50 AM links to this post

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Are IBM And The IT Industry Headed For Disaster?

Let me first take a few paragraphs to comment about the markets in general.  One of the long-time themes on here is that we would eventually see Wall Street trade counterparties out of financial markets and market “professionals” will be left batting massively overvalued shares back and forth.  There is little to no liquidity in financial markets and that dynamic has been building since 2008.   No one knows how much true manipulation is going on because no one has an overall view of markets.  But a substantial amount of market liquidity is predatory and meant to steal money from counterparties.  This is driven by algorithmic trading and serves absolutely no purpose other than stealing.   The last week has been a derivatives (leverage) driven rally by market professionals or whatever invisible hands that lie behind all financial markets today.  Some indices may yet make new highs but in many instances open interest in financial futures markets has imploded or is imploding.  I talked about that very fact in the gold market some time ago.  That open interest in gold derivatives collapsed by 90% in its selloff.  I have seen statistics that I cannot corroborate that in many regards we have never seen such thin liquidity in some markets.   That means if you breathe on a stock, in many instances it is going to spike higher or collapse.  

This is one hell of a dangerous market that is only levitated through massive fraud and corruption around the world.   Just like in the underlying economy, state-created monopoly in financial markets has driven out price discovery, counterparties and competition.   This dynamic has been building for many decades and is now reaching its finality.  Benjamin Graham, the greatest investor of all time, essentially threw up his hands more than forty years ago in stating that he could no longer find any value in stocks.  ie Price discovery has been ablated for forty years or thereabouts.   This is so mind boggling that I doubt there is anyone who is reading this who will even consider this to be true.   Because if one considers this to be true, then what comes next is beyond comprehension and causes a reaction of pure fear for those who are institutionalized to this system.   So, instead people will simply continue to deny truth.   That is, until it forces them to face reality.    With massive valuation expansion, financial engineering (fraud) and an endless wall of renter-capitalist dirty money over the past forty years, if Graham were alive today, I can say with near complete certainly there isn’t a single stock he would remotely consider owning.   I say this to make a point.  Who the hell is going to be the counterparty in markets that are more expensive, more distorted and more manipulated than at any time in history?  Ever.  Much more so than 1929.   Most often by magnitudes.  Certainly not most Americans.  They don’t have a pot to piss in.   I’ll tell you who is holding the bag.  Wall Street dunces, central bank dunces, political dunces, mutual fund dunces, public pension dunces, renter capitalist dunces and all of the other dunces who benefit from this mess.  That is, the members of the plutocracy that created this Humpty Dumpty through decades of self-interested “laws” and rules they passed to enrich themselves at the expense of humanity.   We have a small group of dunces holding most massively bubblicious financially-traded assets.  Perceptions are that they are rich on paper.  But the paper is based on four decades of worthless monetary emission that isn’t backed by any type of wealth creation.   Now they have no one to dump any of this toxic trash onto so they are going to have to ride this pig to zero or thereabouts.   I have written on here many times over the years that central banks will never be able to stop printing money without economic reform.  That economic policy for the last forty years has destroyed wealth creation and thus the only way to perpetuate this illusion is endless, useless monetary emission in the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen.  That policy will ultimately fail.  The only question is when.   Now onto the post.

A little over three years ago I wrote a detailed post that IBM was putting in a major top, and maybe its last top.  Forever.  The company’s stock has not moved since.   That is, until its just-reported earnings and the stock has now experienced a mini crash.   The company has reported shrinking revenues for the last three years as well.  In that post I wrote a detailed review of their major lines of business and how they had come to rely on unsustainable business models, rent extraction schemes foisted upon clients and too-big-to-fail clients, specifically in the finance industry.  The finance industry, which is nothing more than a rent-extracting Ponzi Scheme itself, has come to dominate IT spending to create these schemes.  And, just as finance creates no wealth, but rather loots society to maintain its usurious existence, IT too employs similar rent extraction to then loot the finance industry. 

This really has nothing to do specifically with IBM, but as noted at that time, is representative of the entire industry, which is living on borrowed time.  The IT industry is one of the most bloated, mismanaged, unproductive, financially-engineered industries.    And the business models in this industry are clearly unsustainable; a topic of discussion on here many times is how few corporations today actually have a sustainable business model and, thus, we could possibly see large corporations fall like dominos.  To top it off, IBM’s intrinsic value, as just one example, is nearly 4x what the average stock was valued at in 1929 before markets fell 90%.  IBM is the second most expensive company in the Dow behind Boeing, which itself is an astronomical bubble.  Boeing’s bubble is not only in its business but in its stock.   For what it’s worth another IT bellwether, SAP just missed earnings as well.  

As I wrote back before the 2008 collapse, my downside target for IBM’s stock is in the mid-20’s.   It remains the mid-20’s which would be a 90% drop from their all-time highs made over the past few years.  That is, if the company even survives the next decade.  If our monetary and financial system fail, the IT industry will fail.  At least as we know it.  The assets and technology may be reorganized or redeployed but there is no way these companies can weather a systemic monetary or financial system storm without bankruptcy or worse.   (Central banks truly are in a fight for their lives and a fight for the future of capitalism’s central planning.  They will certainly fail as all central planners eventually do.)

Looking at the chart of IBM, from a technical standpoint, there isn’t even any price support until $130.  The chart pattern is the exact same fractal pattern exhibited by U.S. stocks from 1932 till today.  That is, a rapid spring higher, a period of middle section malaise - a chart pattern that George Lindsay made famous - and a final rapid rise into a blow off top.   Some may wish to take a view of these three segments as Kondratiev’s spring, summer and fall of capitalism.   If so, all that is left is the now unfolding economic winter or possibly the demise of capitalism. 

IBM could see shares fall precipitously in coming months until they find some support at $130. 

IBM

posted by TimingLogic at 9:59 AM links to this post

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Hospitium And America’s Robber Barons Who Are Now Worth $2.3 Trillion

It really doesn’t matter who, what, where, why, this system is finished.  One of the most intriguing forms of propaganda I see today from those who have stolen everything is that you can’t make society wealthy by taking from those who have achieved individual wealth.  Hahaha.  That’s a f*cking joke.  It certainly is true that in a just and honest society that taking from those who have worked and toiled to invent, create and produce and giving to those who are lazy, entitled, privileged and, in general, parasites and manipulators, is not the way to create wealth for everyone.  But, in actuality, most of the people who have achieved substantial wealth today have stolen it from those who don’t.  It is the successful who are often lazy, entitled, privileged parasites.  The methods of this theft are endless.  Whether that is the surplus value of one’s labor and intellectual capital stolen by capitalists or the massive money-to-make-money dynamic of rent extraction of renter capitalism or the fraud and corruption of rigging just about every aspect of society so those who have stolen everything are guaranteed to keep it.   As I have noted before on here, it doesn’t matter where or when in history, when we see this level of theft that results in concentration of wealth, a redistribution is going to happen.  That could be through the failure of money, the failure of property rights, the failure of state power or any other number of methods.  

The signs of an unprecedented peak level of excess of the useless amusers who sit atop of the world are everywhere.   Whether that is the regular pronouncement of a new multi-million dollar car, or condos in London, New York or the French Riviera going for over one hundred million dollars or art selling for astronomical dollar amounts or Facebook CEO, and owner of the massively bubblicious stock of his company,paying $114 million to buy up a large tract of land in Hawaii, the signs of garish and obscene peak excess are everywhere.  All while the world experiences unprecedented global suffering.  

I would bet my life, literally, that we will live to see the day when this type of property ownership and obscene concentration of wealth are overturned.   Whether that is through dynamics similar to the Reign of Terror associated with the French Revolution or the failure of money or property rights or an outright bust similar to 1929, it’s coming.  A redistribution of what has literally been stolen from humanity and hoarded by a small number of people will happen.  And we will live to watch it happen.  And what a glorious day it will be.  Because   anyone who can justify this level of self-centeredness, in the face of so much suffering, truly is Godless and lacking in any connection to their humanity.   

When I first penned this post, the following day Russell Brand posed the question fo whether it is  your fault you’re poor.  This is a must watch video.   Brand is truly one of the most observant and insightful people in the world today.  He intuitively understands what the disconnected ego of pathology doesn’t.   He understands the profundity of this moment while those who have stolen everything are busy amusing themselves to death.  It literally makes me sick to my stomach when watching Stuart Varney and Bill O’Reilly spout such f*cking hatred and deceitful, arrogant lies about poverty.   I guess this is what they call compassionate conservatism.  The ego literally knows no bounds to its lecherous evil.  I think it’s telling that Russell’s video has a 99% approval rating.   That is, welfare and other demeaning state programs are used to keep the jack boot of violence on humanity for the benefit of state actors who then steal with impunity from the human family.    Russell speaks from experience being on welfare.  Guess what?  I do too.  And no one in my family wanted to be poor, was lacking in a desire to have a better life or any motivation to work for it.  In fact, I suspect my family did more productive work that benefited society than Varney or O’Reilly ever did.  More lies this system perpetuates to rationalize its endless God forsaken evil.  Let’s see Stuart and Bill come into my family’s experiences and watch their pablum puke work magic in their rise to arrogance and hatred.

As it pertains to the title of this post, I have noted with numerous dynamics such as this that these numbers truly aren’t real.   This “wealth” we see just isn’t real.  It is really a function of a dying monetary phenomena.  The most staggering example if this I have cited is that the Dow Transports over the last 80 years.  For the first 40 it rose 1x then in the next forty years culminating in today it rose more than 64x.   It’s simply a monetary phenomena that is temporarily granting an illusion of prosperity.  How it plays itself out to the ultimate end game becomes somewhat speculative.  But we know certain dynamics of a control system are likely to pass as it becomes unstable.   Regardless, the fact that a handful of people have more wealth than the vast majority of Americans or people in the world is not a sign of prosperity but rather a sign of how broken the monetary, economic and political system are.  Over 50% of Americans rely on some form of government assistance while we have people who could never possibly use a small fraction of that which they have stolen.  And, mind you, when we are talking numbers this ridiculous, it is nothing more than a wealth-shifting scheme enforced through state violence.  No single person is capable of generating this type of wealth.   

On that note, how much money do you think a single person is capable of making in a market-based or community-based economy comprised solely of individuals?  No corporations used to exploit the masses and loot their intellectual and physical labor.  No state protection rackets and privileges and class by rigging rules.  A million bucks?  That would be $4,000 a day.  I’m not aware of anyone who can make that much money off of other individuals through direct trade.   That would mean you would have to offer ten people something you personally made or personally were able to offer them of value from your own intellectual capacity that would amount to $400 for 10 individuals or, more likely, $40 for 100 individuals, every single work day for a year.  It’s more likely that the most you may be able to make would be one twentieth that amount or less.   But you would still be reliant on society to provide the roads, bridges, electricity and other basic necessities of life.  So, taking your share of paying for that out of your earnings, in today’s dollars, how much could one person make by selling something from their own two hands or their own mind to another person? 

Let’s make sure we measure this accurately.   Doctors, as just one example, can’t factor in medication, sutures, testing equipment or anything else that is made by another person or people.  And they cannot include office help or nurses in the assistance of making money.  Nor can they use the internet to sell  services because that too is managed or created by someone else.  My point is that I want to measure what do you offer personally that affords you to make outlandish amounts of money when the economic system is truly democratic.   For many people, the answer would be I offer nothing because we have lost touch with craft, skilled-trades, making our own food, producing that which we need, etc.  Now we focus on skills that serve no purpose other than to benefit corporations and the class that uses them to exploit the rest of us.  I’m not advocating a return to a world where everything is made by hand.  I’m simply pointing out how this type of supposed wealth disparity we see today is really not achievable without the force of the state that allows a small number of people to exploit all of humanity through class and privilege.

I don’t know why I have never seen this written anywhere but I have talked about the game of Monopoly on here over the years.  And that it was created during the Great Depression.  This was a time when it was thought that unbridled corporate power created the Great Depression dynamics.  Which, by the way, is accurate with some nuances behind it.  Debt, schmet.  Debt is a symptom and so is this monetary system.  The real issue of one of class and power that controls money and debt as noted in my recent post on Ireland. 

Anyway, who hasn’t played Monopoly?  I suspect most people reading this have.  In the game all of society starts out with an equal footing.  Or, the same amount of money as a baseline with no property or asset ownership.  As the game is played, winners and losers are invariably created.  The winners become even more wealthy as they extract endless rent and fees while the losers become even poorer.  Until, at some point, one person owns everything and everyone else is subjugated to that person’s rent-extracting assets and property until they literally go broke.  It’s essentially a rent-seeking theft scheme.   The winner to Monopoly isn’t the most altruistic or the smartest.  The winner is whoever has access to capital to continue to expand their empire and some flavor of dumb luck.   In other words, the first to buy assets and properties is the winner.  In the game, that access to capital is funny money used to buy railroads, rental properties, etc.  Or, things made by other people.  In real life, the medium is credit.  Because if you have credit, you don’t need two nickels to rub together.  This is important to note because this is how a system of class and state violence continues to keep their boot on the face of minorities, the poor, the working class, women, the dwindling middle class, etc.   And who gets credit?  Those who most effectively produce a profit for the benefit of the holder of credit.  That is, the bank and the investor class of predators.  Those who are willing to destroy productive work and sell off assets like Gordon Gecko or private equity or ruthless and predatory corporations.  It really doesn’t matter.  It’s simply who, under any type of circumstances, be they brutal and inhumane or not, can produce the greatest rent-extraction scheme.  After this example, which really is representative of corporate capitalism’s systemic corruption, do you have a greater appreciation why I incessantly babble on here about public capital and public banking?  

The game of monopoly is played in every city, every state, every country, every industry, etc.  So, winners develop, through selection by privilege by granting them special access to credit, until there are only two or three large corporations serving the vast majority of society in every single industry.  Or, a small number of people who control all of the wealth in a particular community.  Ditto with two or three large nations serving the vast majority of the global economy.   And on, and on, and on.  You could consider this as a fractal that repeats itself on all time scales, in all markets, and all scale.   We see it locally.  We see it nationally.  We see it internationally.  We see it segmented by industry.  And on and on and on.   Are these economic winners the smartest people?  Have you ever been beaten at Monopoly by a ten year old kid?  Need I say more?  But once you become part of the club of privilege, afforded by the almighty god of service to money and profit over humanity, this socioeconomic system elects you to other corporate boards, to community functions, to political institutions, etc.  And you then have even greater power to project your values of evil, greed and corruption onto everyone else and all of humanity.   The fish rots from the head first.

I have met my fair share of “ten year old” Monopoly players making some really big bucks in corporate America.  Most aren’t all that.   A small number may have invented one thing or may be very capable as measured by some forms of standardized testing.  (Most of those forms of testing are bullshit.  How did Albert Einstein or Nikolai Tesla score on standardized tests?  Or, how does compassion, mercy and kindness score on a standardized reasoning test?)   Most winners are simply bureaucrats who learned to play the game.  That included kissing ass long enough to become part of the club.   Especially since entrepreneurship in this nation is essentially dead and has been for decades.  Especially in the capital-creating industries.  In the process of becoming part of the club, most sell their soul to money, greed, power, exploitation, victimization, predation, etc.   And, this is really the reason why this system will fail.  Because it is Godless and void of any humanity.

Freedom needs to be redefined in socioeconomic constructs.  Freedom doesn’t mean you are free to exploit humanity to appease your own inner demons.  Dare I say nary a single person on this list of richest people is emotionally-free in any aspect of their existence.  Which, frankly, is the only type of freedom that truly matters.   I can say that without equivocation because if you are truly emotionally-free, demagogy doesn’t appeal to you.  Consumerism doesn’t appeal to you.  Outsourcing your power to corporate hierarchy, politicians or the state doesn’t appeal to you.  Making obscene amounts of money you could never spend beyond some degree of self-appreciated austerity doesn’t appeal to you.   Building empires to your own vanity doesn’t appeal to you.  And seeing others suffer while you are living large doesn’t appeal to you.  Freedom doesn’t mean you are able to take as much as you want while others have literally nothing for any number of reasons.   Most of which are beyond their control.  And, thus, must serve you as their master.  True freedom, emotional freedom, recognizes the worthiness of all life.  And, therefore, seeks to see all life prosper.  Even if I have to share.  Or, maybe I should say, especially when I want to share – which is an innate human value. 

Sharing was the divine right of hospitium or hospitality that has been part of so many cultures for time immemorial.  That is, until the state arrived on the scene.   The divine right of hospitality conferred that you were required to share everything you owned with strangers in need.  That included offering them shelter, clothing and food.   I wonder how many on this richest list would open their homes to those without shelter and provide for the welfare of anyone and everyone in need?  And continue to open their homes and wallets until every stranger was fed and clothed?

That is the true parable (or who knows, possible a true story) of the demise of Sodom and Gomorrah as is known by true historical intellectuals as opposed to the contrived stories of hatred perpetuated by religions demagogues and fanatics.  These corrupted, greed and money-driven, selfish societies broke the divine rights granted to strangers and to their fellow man.   They failed the divine right of hospitality.  And, because this was a divine right granted to all, these societies were destroyed by the Divine.   Whether this is a parable or reality, doesn’t really matter.  It is a proven data point of karmic outcomes to socioeconomic conditions and human behavior - evil, wickedness, greed, gluttony, vanity and ultimately wrath - that foretells of coming collapse or worse of a world that has lost its humanity and its connection to the universe.

Ezekiel 16:49-50, “This was the guilt of your sister Sodom: she and her daughters had pride, excess of food, and prosperous ease, but did not aid the poor and needy.”

America’s richest 400 worth $2.3 trillion.  Which is essentially an update to the last pronouncement that the 85 richest people on earth are worth more than half of the entire world’s population

State liberalism is dead.

posted by TimingLogic at 12:56 PM links to this post

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Netflix Falls $120 After Hours

Ignorance drives all of our mainstream reality anymore.  Truly.  (If you think the world is going to claw its way out of this without suffering the  consequences, you are smoking something stronger than crack because the entire world is run by credentialed, yet incompetent  idiots.)  We live in a dumbed-down world of complete lunacy.  Netflix is trading at almost one thousand times free cash flow.  A valuation of such insanity that I literally cannot even wrap my head around it.  Earlier today some well-known economics reporter at a well-respected financial news web site (ahem) owned by Dow Jones remarked that Netflix was headed to $600 from its current massive bubble valuation of $450.  In after-hours trading Netflix stock is down $120 per share.    This is the level of credentialed economic reporting that dominates all of mainstream reality.   In fact, it dominates all aspects of all of our reality. 

Going back to my posts on competence versus credentials, there is almost no competence left in this world in positions of power.    We truly are the bumbling, massively incompetent, centrally-planned Soviet Union.  The only competent assertion one can make regarding finance is that we are in the largest financial bubble the world has ever seen.  And it has been building for the better half of half a century and it has created a mass delusion that ensnares all who succeed in perpetuating it.  And the valuation of financial assets reflect no type of reality.  Period. 

We live in a world that is unprecedented in its credentials.   Bureaucrats who create and perpetuate our delusional reality love credentials.  They often graduate from private, elite high schools, attend Ivy League colleges, have certifications of all manner and are completely incompetent.   Then they lather, rinse and repeat for their kids.  And they force this level of credential on society.  That dumbed-down delusion is why we are guaranteed to see this system fail spectacularly.  It is a system of “educated”, planned ignorance.  It only succeeds by suppressing competence and its associated truth.

posted by TimingLogic at 5:09 PM links to this post

What Hath October Wrought: Empire State Manufacturing Index Collapses 80% In One Month

Work week, prices paid and new order components imploded as well, thus possibly exposing new crises in the global capitalist production system’s massive slack. 

On that note, front month futures contracts for copper are down big today.  And, the longer term chart of copper shows it may be close to an outright collapse. 

Title link here.

posted by TimingLogic at 12:45 PM links to this post

Beppe Grillo Calls For Italy’s Exit From The Anti-Democratic, Tyrannical European Economic Slavery System

European stock markets are bleeding red today.  Italy and Greece are leading the way to the downside with large declines that could be characterized as mini crashes.  Europe as it has been architected by state predators and corporate capitalists is finished as noted on here many times since starting this blog.  The people of Europe will retake their sovereignty and determinism from state predators.  

The world continues to rip apart globalization and the massively corrupt trading and trade settlement systems put in place by state actors to exploit, loot, pillage and prey upon humanity.  People are retaking their own power back from the state and its predatory, class-based moochers and parasites including politicians, corporations and banks.  State liberalism, stealing more and more individual power and granting it to state moochers and parasites and those it grants special privilege, is finished. 

Title link here.

posted by TimingLogic at 10:45 AM links to this post

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

The Peak Oil Myth: Are The Middle East Oil Fiefdoms Starting Their Economic Collapse?

Middle East stock markets experience mini crash.  Much more downside, a complete implosion, to likely come in coming months and years.  The Middle East is a shithole of corruption, economic tyranny and feudalism that subjugates mass populations to titled predators.  I wrote these bubbles would collapsing leading into the 2008 crash and they did.  That was just the beginning. 

Privately, Saudis are okay with $80 to $90 a barrel oil for a year or two.  How about $10 oil?

Saudis avoid 1980s mistake in supply glut.  Yeah, right.  OPEC is the poster child for an incompetent, crony oligarchy.   The Saudi royal thugs are sitting on a ticking time bomb.  They and others in the region have outsourced their monetary policy to the Federal Reserve by pegging their currencies to the dollar.   Their resultant economic bubbles are massive and ripe for collapse.

One of the themes written of on here over and over in the last nine years is that peak oil is a myth.   There is no reliable evidence this is the peak in oil reserves or production or more broadly a peak in the availability of carbon-based energy.  In fact, there is no evidence we will ever see a peak in carbon-based energy.   Why is it that one may consider this to be a moment of peak oil?  Because someone told you.  And that someone, generally financial interests, have many conflicts of interest.   People simply accept it because they accept others having authority over their own emotional freedom.    And these exploiters, users and takers use that authority to manipulate, terrorize, deceive and exploit humanity.   That’s what the state and its manifestations of authority eventually always do.  

Some of the largest oil fields in history have been discovered since the prattling of peak oil.  That includes the very recent discovery in the Russian Artic region discovered by Exxon Mobil that may be the size of the Gulf of Mexico.   Humanity has discovered more new oil than all that was hypothesized to exist when Hubbert came up with his theory.  In fact, without going back and looking, I recall that we have many times more oil than Hubbert ever considered.  Now, that doesn’t mean we will not reach peak oil some day.  Or that the theory is completely invalid.  The theory essentially is based on the waning production curve of existing oil fields.  But, those oil fields are shallow fields.   While the mainstream mocks the possibility of abiotic oil, the process has actually been recreated under deep earth conditions in the lab.  So, while the world laughs at such a possibility, again through their perceptions of intellectual superiority, we may yet find out that deep oil comes from other sustainable earth processes rather than organic matter.  This certainly has been proven with another carbon-based energy, abiotic methane, throughout the solar system.  That includes being proven here on earth.

But, when the entire world believes something about the external or physical world, and it has simply been postulated as a theory rather than ever being proven, it is likely to be a social movement.  Social movements are contrivances as we are now finding out about human-caused global warming.  Never in the history of humanity has the social mob provided the answers to science and human fate.  That isn’t going to start today.   It is more likely, as noted on here in past posts, that we will not leave the carbon age because we have tapped the world of all of its carbon resources.  We didn’t leave the stone age because we ran out of stones.  

The United States has more than one thousand years of carbon-based energy reserves.  Now, mining and extracting those reserves may be dirty and environmentally-damaging but that’s a separate issue.  And, if one actually appreciates how much overproduction and overconsumption there is in this world, a world created by a corporate capitalist virus, and how much wasted energy there is by corporate capitalism and the state, one appreciates that sustainable energy consumption could easily fall by half or more if this system completely unwinds.   In fact, it could fall by far more than that.  Less than 15% of all corporate activity in this nation actually produces any wealth.  If we would rid ourselves of useless activities of corporate capitalism that serve no benefit other than pilfering and exploitation by class and hierarchy, or if this is the end cycle of corporate capitalism, we could have energy reserves lasting thousands of years and sustainable energy demand that is a small fraction of that which exists today.  Add in the massive reduction of energy demand created by the end of globalization, and this is certainly coming, and the extended, massively energy-inefficient corporate supply chains that globalization creates, another source of a massive carbon energy glut appears.   All talked about on here over the years.

If all of this slack is removed from the global economic system, and what we use is what we actually need rather than what the system demands, the future of energy consumption is going to change radically.   Regardless, none of this takes into account any new technologies or discoveries that will happen in the next one hundred or one thousand years.  Including esoteric topics like cold fusion or a resurgence of new electrical energy research into much of what has been forgotten or pushed aside in the last 80-odd years. 

The system as it is constructed pushes back on new technology, new innovations and solutions that are for the betterment of humanity.  The energy excesses and waste are incredible.  And the lack of monetization of new forms of energy production are endlessly stifled.   That includes a distributed grid serving local communities.   A distributed grid would allow local communities to embrace technologies unique to their ecosystem and uniqueness of local natural resources.  

One of the obvious reasons perpetuated for the myth of peak oil a cover-up for the massive corruption, fraud and manipulation of the energy markets by Wall Street,  financial firms around the world and  states including Russia, Saudi Arabia, etc.    The deregulation of energy has led to a massive, exponential financial involvement in  energy markets unlike anything the world has ever seen.   The price of energy is manipulated today using the exact same fraudulent tactics that Enron used under Clinton.  Something I have written on here ad nauseam.   State regulators, energy producers and distributors all actually believed that California, as an example, was experiencing energy shortages.  In actuality this was all an illusion managed through perceptual manipulation that Enron controlled with the help of Wall Street and lax (compliant)government oversight.  Oh, and don’t kid yourself when liberals blame Bush for Enron.   Bush was a horrible president but it was Clinton who deregulated energy markets.   And it was Clinton-Gore that created Enron.   I have discussed in detail how energy has been manipulated in past posts.   There is absolutely no doubt of this truth regardless of whatever “investigations” Congress or regulators have undertaken that have come up empty.  They have come up empty because the fox is guarding the henhouse.    

We have a larger glut of oil today than when it was $10 a barrel back in 1998.  One day this illusory bubble of energy manipulation will pop.   The future void of this manipulation will impact energy producers, consumers, distributors and the energy markets themselves.   The reverberations will be felt globally.   It is one of the outcomes I have noted over the years will likely create the collapse dynamics of feudal Arabian oil fiefdoms in the Middle East.   The bribery of populations with dirty petroleum money has created tyrannical welfare states throughout the Middle East that subjugates humanity to feudal oil empires.  The collapse of the price of oil will only hasten the collapse of caliphate-controlled and mass subjugated populations of peoples in the Middle East.

If Middle Eastern stock markets are responding so negatively today, what can we expect if oil prices collapse?   As noted on here many times, oil could easily retest the 1998 lows of about $10 a barrel. 

posted by TimingLogic at 11:40 AM links to this post

Monday, October 13, 2014

Friday’s Crash In Semiconductors

Let me add an addendum to the last post with the chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index below.  This index was routed on Friday and has now experienced a mini crash.   We have also seen this dynamic repeatedly in individual stocks over the last four years.  Stocks crash and then are reflated almost immediately.   I’m not convinced there is enough liquidity to drive bouncing of indices up and down with such wild swings but it has happened repeatedly in individual stocks.  

I have never, ever seen anything like this.   And I am a market historian.  So, I have data and charts for the last one hundred years.  And some even older than that.  Amazon, Apple, Tesla, some biotechs and others crash and then within days of a bottom start another meteoric rise, often to new heights.   Below is an example of what I am talking about.  In Tesla’s chart you see three clear crashes that are very rapid.  Yet, you see rapid recoveries to new highs in the first two crashes.  The only way this is possible is through massive amounts of useless money in the system coupled with market manipulation.   As I wrote many years ago, this form of momentum trading is reminiscent of the wildly corrupt and fraudulent stock pools pre-1929.  But while stock pools are technically illegal today, a similar dynamic through which stocks are inflated for massive profit can be recreated without technically breaking the laws. 

Interestingly, I’m not an Elliott Wave kinda guy but I clearly see 5 distinct waves on the Tesla chart as I have annotated with the blue lines.  While the 5th wave has not been invalidated yet, when it is invalidated in coming months or after one more push to new highs, whichever develops first, I suspect we will soon thereafter start to see the demise of Tesla as a company.  As noted on here in past posts, I’m not convinced Tesla is a sustainable business and there is ample reason to believe the company is not long for this world.   Tesla has benefited from special treatment and special privilege in the world of cronyism that is so pervasive today.  But selling luxury electric cars to the generally ignorant who have created this economic and financial mess isn’t a winning long-term proposition.  Remember, a long-time thesis on here is that oil is headed substantially lower and could retest the 1998 lows of about $10 a barrel.   Who exactly is going to be buying if this outcome develops?  That is, except for the U.S.S. Economy that may find some need for Teslas as boat anchors. 

tsla

The amount of speculative excess, and useless money to drive it, that exists in financial markets is astounding and truly without historical parallel.    

soxx

Chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

Individual components to the SOX index were down as much as 15% last Friday.  It was a total rout equal to some of the very worst days in stock market history.  But, it was concentrated in semiconductors.  Leading up to the 2008 collapse, I penned a post about the impending doom associated with the strong rise in semiconductors and the foolishness of Jim Cramer who was pumping them out of pure ignorance.  Those same dynamics were at play in the rapid rise of semiconductors over the last year.  Semiconductor fundamentals, book to bill ratios and overall demand remains weak and spotty.  There are certainly exceptions in small niches but as I have noted ad nauseam over the years, I hate technology stocks.  I have discussed the many reasons for this.  But the primary reason as written many times before the 2008 crash is that the United States is and has been in the greatest capital investment depression in its history.  Capital investment is possibly the greatest indicator to future economic wealth and activity there is.  Making iPhones and Xbox gaming consoles will not sustain future wealth creation and economic development.   Nor will the massive capital spending on military weapons.  That is, unless the U.S. economic plan is to use those weapons to plunder the world economically as it has for the last half century.

What happened in semiconductors last Friday is something I have noted many times.  We could easily wake up one day and see the Dow down thousands of points at the open.  Seeing markets operate at the level I am involved in gives one a great appreciation of how dangerous financial markets really are.  And, have been since the crash of 2008.    

Humpty Dumpty, or the global economy, has been and remains in shambles.  There is no recovery.  There will be no recovery.  This system is now in a permanently failed state.  All we are witnessing is the status quo spending untold amounts of the people’s money, the manipulation of the people’s government and the manipulation of the people’s reality in a failed attempt to save itself. 

posted by TimingLogic at 1:08 PM links to this post

Wednesday, October 08, 2014

Financial Market Update

I have really gotten away from a lot of financial market analysis this year.   I have written so many financial posts, where we are in the financial cycle and anticipated outcomes that I have decided to focus on more core drivers that are fundamental to this socioeconomic system of corporate and class-based control.

I will state that what I believe are my most interesting financial posts are yet to come.  Many of these are esoteric and complex topics I don’t want to get into here.   As noted many times, the 2008 crisis would ultimately expose a global volatility that involves all corners of the globe in an economic crisis.   Something just a handful of years ago would have had me laughed out of any discussion from either bull or bear.  Everyone believed the U.S. was headed for the scrap heap and the world would continue on without a hiccup.  Eight years ago I wrote that the entire world would literally shutter and shake when this cycle ends.  People are now getting a glimpse of how powerful this cycle truly is.  Additionally, the U.S. empire is awesome and well more powerful than any analysis I have yet seen.   Well more powerful.  As noted on here in past posts, the U.S. is responsible for at least  $50 trillion in annual trade.   The real number is probably substantially higher.  Nibblings of trade settlement excluding the dollar around the fringe by China, Russia and others are just that.  Nibblings.   They are important, and I wrote that we would likely have a trade settlement crisis this cycle, and that nations would likely move towards direct trade settlement, both well before anyone else I am aware of, but I am dubious that these nibblings will be the cause.  You will appreciate the scope and scale of empire at some future point in my writings.  And when you realize how large empire truly is, you will appreciate what lengths it will go to in order to keep it.  The United States is in a state of permanent war with the world.  That war is social, economic and military.  And it is fought on countless fronts through corporate and political forces. 

For today, I want to focus on some generally-available data rather than anything proprietary.  I have shut down my proprietary trading system with the passing of the late Scorpio (November) 2013 turn date.   I don’t know if my shutdown is forever but for now it is.  Those who think they can be “cute” and beat this system are deluding themselves and don’t have an appreciation for what is actually happening nor how quickly future events will metastasize.   The last time I made a similar statement was back within a few percentage points of the all-time highs of major U.S. banks.  I wrote that I had moved all of my money and family’s money out of Wall Street banks.  This system is so wildly corrupt and the bubble so large that I suspect I will never again own another financially-traded asset.  That is, if I even have any money of value to do so.   That statement is likely to manifest itself in one of two ways.  One, the system may collapse completely and money and institutions of capitalism like the stock market and bond market will simply disappear or, two, this system will be replaced with something where the concept of an investor class or financial speculating for personal gain simply disappears.   From my work, the risks post November (Scorpio) of 2013 are unprecedented and beyond words in scope and scale.   And going into dreaded October with this market sliding, added to this month’s blood moon, could be very dangerous in the short term.  Can Wall Street bounce the market upwards again in this month?

October, an often cyclically-unpleasant month for financial markets,  is filled with war, economic sanctions, a rapidly imploding Europe, a Russian ruble hitting all-time lows, a China now in the midst of dealing with the biggest capital bubble in history, a dollar rising with strength not seen since the 2008 collapse, multiple large viral and bacterial events and the overarching fold of the largest financial bubble in the history of the world.  A financial bubble that is now showing the early signs of liquidity shocks.  In addition as I type this, we are now putting a major cycle bottom in an important astrological volatility index that may play a major role in human behavior.   

As noted many times over the last few years, the November 2013 turn date was the official kickoff in the coming battle between good and evil.   (2013, 2016 and 2022 have been and remain three (two) future dates of concern on here.) I anticipate that global chaos will continue to intensify in waves through 2022, the last of the three important dates discussed on here over the years.  (2022 is also the date by which I have noted American empire may disappear.  If that happens, the entire world economic system will be in complete chaos.)

I’m not stating we are witnessing the ultimate top in financial assets at this moment.   But it appears we are in the process of making a top.   The last time I made that statement was fourth quarter of 2012.   At that time I wrote that we could see one final and possibly spectacular push higher.  But if I am honest, I certainly gave that just about zero chance of happening.  But, it did happen.  In retrospect, the fourth quarter of 2012 was a top.  Just not a top in markets.  It was the top in global growth that has been ratcheting down ever since.  

The size of the rally in financially-traded assets since 2012 is a barometer for the record amount of “useless” money in the global economy.   And, of course, the useless capital-consuming, wealth-robbing, wealth-transferring jobs it creates.   In one of his more profoundly ignorant moments, Greenspan would call this a savings glut, as he did many moons ago.  What it really is is a record amount of useless money created by criminal and useless financial activity in the global financial system.    Just one example of this is the $20 trillion of useless money over the past decade and a half used for mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. alone.  A dynamic that served no purpose to a functioning economy, to democracy or to human development.   War, the national security state, the militarization of our society, the over production of weapons and on and on probably added another $15 trillion in the U.S. alone.   Every nation has its own story to tell in the creation of a massive wall of useless money that now flows around the world like a virus inflating and deflating financial assets courtesy of corporations, politicians and the investor class.   ie, Courtesy of pathology. 

Financial assets could meander around for months or even the next year.  Or we could continue higher.   But I wouldn’t bet my life on much positive news for this system post November of 2013.   Liquidity is certainly becoming a premium as a rapidly rising dollar and a rapidly declining ruble alerts us.  As chaos around the world continues to pick up, the ability of the status quo to control anything, let alone everything, will become even more impossible.  

Picking tops is a very esoteric art.  I don’t have any of my algorithms or data to analyze the level of detail of what I am used to so I can’t do the type of analysis I am used to.  Shorter term, I am certainly concerned.  The market is deteriorating broadly and rapidly into October.   This year specifically looks like October might provide an astrological “bottom” in what will be rising chaos on earth.

I have talked often about the massive valuations of the Russell 2000, which is discounting nearly one hundred years of earnings.  This has never happened in such a broad index.  Ever.  Not even close.  No one in mainstream finance, economics or media will ever talk of this fact for fear of spooking markets and seeing a panic flight out of risk assets.   A panic from risk would leave Wall Street holding the bag with the latest monstrosity of their creation.   A few weeks ago the Russell 2000 saw the 50 day moving average cross the 200 day moving average.  The highlights on CNBC were that this is a “death cross”.  Well, I don’t know about that but it does point to declining momentum and possibly declining liquidity.     At the same time 10 equity market indices in Europe have also experienced the same slowdown.   The German, French, Italian, British, Spanish and five other European exchanges have all seen their major indices experience 50-200 crosses.  Europe is deep in crisis and the slowdown in Germany obliterates their last hope of growth.  And, it also means that the viability of the euro currency is again going to come front and center without some type of new bailout for Europe’s aristocracy by the ECB.  Contrary to popular opinion with many, European culture is the “Ebola” virus that infects the U.S. and not vice versa.  The Quakers did not flee Europe to come to the shithole of class, corporate power, aristocracy and state power that now infects the U.S.  They fled Europe for those very reasons.  That virus now infects the United States in spades.

Remember that money is fungible.  That means the S&P 500 bubble, the art bubble, the housing bubble, the high-end real estate bubble, the farmland bubble, the private equity bubble, the investor class bubble, the concentration of wealth bubble, the money bubble, the university bubble, the entertainment-leisure-sports bubble, the financialized economy bubble, the MBA bubble, the China bubble, the emerging markets bubble, the commodities bubble, the money-in-politics bubble, the lawyer bubble, the lobbyist bubble, the mainstream media bubble, the social media bubble, the advertising bubble, the Apple bubble, the high-yield debt bubble, the consumerism bubble, the gold bubble, the military-industrial complex bubble, the investment advisor bubble, the hedge fund bubble, the corporate power bubble, the M&A bubble, the Washington power bubble, the American empire bubble, the industrial food bubble, the debt bubble and every other bubble created through Wall Street and Washington violence, (and that have all been talked of on here ad nauseam) are all comparatively equal in scope and scale.   They are proportionately as large as the poverty bubbles you see in the U.S.   We know this because money is fungible.   That means just because you don’t see the scope and scale of these bubbles as measured by mainstream in-the-bubble metrics doesn’t mean they aren’t comparable.   And, you may not see these bubbles because in some way you are the bubble.  But I’ll share some detailed analysis in the future that will reveal the S&P 500 and many of these other markets are just as big of a bubble as the Russell 2000.   In other words, hundred year bubbles.  Which, by the way, shouldn’t surprise anyone because the Federal Reserve, the enabler of the criminalized aristocratic society, corporate capitalism and the state, is one hundred years old.

In writing that last paragraph I am reminded of a quote from a favorite movie, Gladiator.  “We shall go to Rome together and have bloody adventures. And the great whore will suckle us until we are fat and happy and can suckle no more.”  The aforementioned bubbles were created by the state for the benefit state actors.  And they were created by suckling on the great whore of empire.  Just like the Roman Empire.

The first chart I want to share is the dollar against the Chilean peso.  Chile is the world’s largest producer of copper as noted on here in past posts.  This graphic is confirming what has been written of quite a few times in the last year.  That is, the world’s demand for copper is, and will likely continue to be, under great pressure.  Copper is a bellwether to both industrial and consumer-based economic activity.   But, it is more importantly a bellwether for capitalism.

DollarPeso

The next graphic is the dollar against the Russian ruble.  Economic sanctions are biting the ruble hard.  And, that means the Russian economy is probably in much worse shape than anyone outside of Russia can imagine.  Remember, the last time we saw any type of sanctions, it was some years ago against Iran.  While those sanctions were more severe, these sanctions are both in euros, pounds and dollars which comprise almost the entirety of global trade.   Iran saw its currency fall by about 70% as I recall from memory.  A similar situation in Russia could and would create unintended consequences both inside and outside of Russia.  Iran weathered its sanctions.  There was no end-of-the-world for Iran.  Russia may as well.  But, it could experience massive monetary dislocations and even see Putin sacked as a result.   Russia’s state actors may have viewed what happened in Iran as a barometer of its own fate.  ie, That it could weather the storm.  We shall see.

DollarRuble

The last two charts are a three and one year look at the Value Line Index.  This index has been around for a long time but is not typically part of the mainstream lexicon.  It is a broad, equally-weighted index of nearly two thousand stocks.  This is very unique because indices are generally weighted.   So, the VLI gives us a view as to what is happening across a multitude of stocks without having to delve into detailed analysis of market data.   We see that this index captured a mass move into equities in 2013.  This is obviously from many sources including trillions in corporate share buybacks, sovereign wealth funds, free money from the Federal Reserve, greater margin debt, buying by central banks around the world, Wall Street, repatriation of hot money into dollars from the rest of the world and on and on.  But we see that liquidity has been evaporating essentially since Scorpio or November of 2013.  Coincidence?  We shall find out soon enough.  But the index is and has been lagging weighted indices like the Dow and S&P 500.   So, we have had an indication for some time that overall weakness in financial assets was coming.  Below, the chart of VLI price is a measure of the Value Line Index divided by the S&P 500 in black.  We see that the weakening of the VLI comparative to the S&P has portended overall market weakness for the past three years.   In prior decades this weakness may not imply anything.  But, in today’s world of algorithmic trading, it means a lot.  Because baskets of stocks are bought by computers rather than any type of individual analysis and selection of particular equities.  I suspect this is a very good measure of how market liquidity is now literally collapsing as the VLI/SP500 relative strength is hitting new cycle lows.   I don’t see any recovery in liquidity as possible now that all of this useless, hot money is fully invested.   That is, unless central bankers and politicians can dream up another new scheme to flood the world with even more useless money.

If you want a simple barometer to watch for market liquidity, the relative strength of the Value Line Index comparative to the S&P 500 is as good as any.

ValueLine

A closer look at more recent action by the VLI.  Lower high and lower low in this most recent rally and decline.  Not a good sign.

image

Markets move in waves and cycles.  So, eventually the dollar may weaken as trades become crowded.  Or not.  We just don’t know.  We haven’t seen anything like this environment in history.  Where there is so much useless money around the world seeking paper returns in lieu of actual investment and production.   But one thing is quite certain.  We are going to see a lot of money vanquished.  All of this useless central-bank-created money is headed to money heaven at some point.  And that’s bad news for all of the bubbles it has created.  Because that means the supply of money that has created all of these bubbles will no longer exist.  Isn’t that all the inflation and deflation of a bubble really is?   A mismatch of supply and demand?  

My long-time downside target remains 200-450 on the S&P 500.  That is, if the stock market and capitalism even survive.  The longer this cycle goes, the greater the chances that the outcome will be well-more horrific than imagined.  Because the greater the violence the state is creating through its unintended consequences of the status quo trying to sustain itself.

posted by TimingLogic at 2:27 PM links to this post

Thursday, October 02, 2014

Biology’s “Hopeful Monsters”, The Son Of Man And The Ebola Outbreak (And Other Pathogens)

Now that Ebola is in the U.S., I just wanted to make a few comments tying together some prior posts.   For newer readers, the overarching theme on this blog over the last nine years is that we are in the midst of a cycle of volatility.   As part of that I have discussed many anticipated outcomes and possibilities as it pertains to this cycle.  Many are socioeconomic but they also include the potential for natural volatility and even the potential for a major outbreak of some type of human  pathogen.   All of these have taken root since my initial writings.  Especially in the last few years.  Fukushima and other events were also exposures of that dynamic coming to pass.   At the time I characterized Fukushima as more as a failure of an institution of the ego or a system of control exposed by nature’s volatility.  Let’s hope we don’t see that type of event metastasize or happen on a larger scale.  But, that certainly is a possibility.  We can expect more volatility with the potential collapse of economies, money, governments, corporations, globalization and other institutions of the ego.  And, as noted in numerous past posts, those events may be pushed along or created by nature’s volatility including pathogens. 

There are multiple examples that are and have been developing in the world including Chikungunya, Ebola, swine flu, bird flu and, more recently a rapidly spreading mysterious enterovirus EV-D69 illness in children within the U.S..  The last illness has been called unprecedented in the number of children requiring intensive care.  To date, all of these outbreaks have been contained.  Pathogens seldom change their method of transmission but this is also not a normal cycle either.  We could see a bird flu or whatnot develop a new method of transmission and take an enormous toll.   There really is no defense modern science could ever employ to stop an easily transmitted pathogen.   Mind you, I also consider the rapid rise of Roundup resistant weeds and the rapidly waning ability of antibiotics to be part of the same dynamic that is now reaching critical mass. 

Years ago I put up numerous posts on gamma ray radiation and the mutation of life associated with volatility.  As we understand it, energy is required to mutate life.   That energy is the divine life force that science has never been able to recreate or  understand on even a primitive level.  Life and events just don’t happen randomly.   And the only energy we really understand that has the ability to cause wholesale cellular mutation is gamma ray radiation, the most powerful energy source known to man.  We shouldn’t be surprised by any of this as science has clearly discovered that our planet is getting bombarded by the largest-ever-measured doses of gamma ray radiation in the past handful of years.  By the way, just as in the Dark Ages, when the Black Death hit, this happened during a time when solar activity was collapsing as it has been since 2008.   As I wrote would likely happen before it actually did happen.  A weakened heliosphere or protective sheath provided by the sun results in a weakened earth’s magnetosphere or protective sheath of life on earth.  And the weakening of both exposes the earth to massive doses of gamma ray radiation, much of which comes from deep within the universe.  Or, if you will possibly consider that the universe is a manifestation of the mind, deep within the mind.  

Interestingly, as noted on here some years ago, NASA had announced that earth was being bombarded by unprecedented levels of gamma rays of unknown origin in the Orion constellation.  In ancient Egyptian mysticism, the Orion constellation was where the dead’s souls ascended for eternity.  Additionally, ancient Biblical passages that refer to the Son of Man are probably in reference to the constellation Orion.  Astrology is substantially weaved throughout the Bible and one must appreciate much of this to divine possible meaning.  Jesus of Nazareth was a spiritual mystic and his understanding of astrology and the constellation of Orion as the Son of Man certainly would have been known at that time.  Even thought that knowledge has been lost now that man has a new form of knowledge it now relies exclusively upon.  That is, it’s own arrogance.   Some people have more recently theorized that the constellation Orion represents the soul of Jesus of Nazareth and, thus, the eternal energy of the human mind.   So, what exactly is the return of the Son of Man we read about in ancient passages?   Is it mumbo jumbo?  Are we experiencing that today with the bombarding of earth by energy from the constellation Orion?  And what effect is that energy having upon life here on earth as well as the human psyche?  Coincidence?  Of no meaning whatsoever?  Random?  Possibly more?

Something else I would like to note is that the Black Death occurred during the very dynamics that we see unfolding today with a collapsing sun.  And, as noted in a prior post, there are now new theories that may tie the Black Death to Ebola.  I certainly have no qualified position on this.  But then neither do most scientists.  They simply regurgitate what they are told.  We do know that Bubonic Plague still exists today and kills thousands of people every year.   But astrology too foretold of the Black Death and, as a result, people at the time thought it was a karmic wrath for their evil ways.  Now, I’m simply making a statement.  I don’t have any answers nor do I have any beliefs on this topic.  But, frankly, what exactly have we learned in the last 800 years that would invalidate that possibility?   Look, there is a karmic balance between good and evil in the universe.  And, the universe has repeatedly shown it will use whatever means at its disposal to restore that balance.  Whatever the means.  That includes wholesale death and destruction of man’s institutions of the ego.   And the violent use of man himself to accomplish this destruction.  Which, by the way, has always been for the betterment of man, all life and the restoration of balance.  Don’t kid yourself into beliefs that science has all of the answers.  Untainted science is a beautiful manifestation of our mind but it has never provided any of the profound answers.  Science deals with how and not why.   Do you know what electricity is?  Something that is so simple and pervasive that it impacts nearly all life on this planet?  If you think you know, you are kidding yourself.  If you think science knows, you are also kidding yourself.  As an electrical engineer I can tell you that science has absolutely no idea what electricity is.   Although we certainly know how to harness some manifestations of it.  And we do that very, very well.   Science doesn’t prove anything.  It only disproves.

I find it interesting that today too, it was astrology that was much of the basis for my analysis as to where we have come in recent years and its similarity to past cycles of volatility.   Is this moment created by us for us?  Because of our prior choices in life?  Is our fate in our own hands?  With the overthrow of evil, will balance be restored and the world return to some semblance of normalcy?  And with it, will these natural disasters, pathogen outbreaks and the like return to lurking in the shadows of our unconscious mind?  Or, are these natural events such as Ebola, the collapse of institutions of the ego, and vanquishing evil necessary to our own evolution?  And, because we created this moment, that we must now experience it for our cumulative consciousness to evolve?  Or is all of this simply random?  And any ability anyone had to predict esoteric factors simply dumb luck?

I would like to envelop all of this in an overarching statement.  As noted in the past, there is some evidence that viruses, bacteria and other simple life forms,and possibly even pathogens, are the basis for much of evolution.  That they form some basis for evolution.  Or, possibly the basis for evolution.  This is well appreciated as about ten percent of our genome was inserted there by viruses.  Science is rapidly discovering on all fronts that we are more bacteria and virus than we are human.  Or, maybe I should say that our physical being is a porridge of basic building blocks and that our being is really a very complex ecosystem that relies on so many factors beyond our perceptions of reality that it is stunningly amazing and beautiful beyond our comprehension.  And, as such, a harmonious balance must be achieved to maintain some degree of stasis in the human ecosystem and the ecosystems beyond our perceptions of self.  The brain affects bacteria, and viruses affect our body and who knows how deep the interdependencies go.  Really some manifestation of the Butterfly Effect of all life being completely connected in magical and mysterious ways institutionalized knowledge simply cannot capture and appreciate.   I suspect we are on the verge of obliterating much of institutionalized medical and food science as these discoveries take place.  Maybe in the future we will use these massive hospital edifices as tortured memorials to our past institutionalized ignorance.     

Continuing with the last paragraph, there is ample evidence that life may not “evolve” over millions of years as institutionalized science believes.  But, that evolution is a violent and comparatively rapid process driven by external energy and-or factors we simply don’t even acknowledge because we cannot capture them let alone understand them.   Biologist Richard Goldschmidt theorized more than half a century ago that macromutations developed very rapidly within as little as a single generation, and create a well-adapted “hopeful beast”.   While his work was discounted by institutionalized science, indeed, there are many examples of this very process being captured by modern science.  One must also consider that not only does this ability define new species but may also define the expansion of human consciousness, or consciousness of all life and possibly human evolution itself.   And, if so, then this  moment, one that I have characterized as the most profound in thousands of years, could be one of those moments of consciousness’s evolution.   I am certainly amazed by the level of awakening I see in people everywhere.  It is incredibly profound and extends well beyond an awakening to evil, hierarchy, control and violence.  It includes a massive awakening to their own internal guidance system and their own divinity.   Bad news for man’s institutions of the ego and the state.  Good news for humanity and all life.

So, why has the sun weakened to such a low level and allowed these possible dynamics to come to pass?  Certainly solar system barycenter dynamics (astrology/astronomy) play some role in solar cycles.  But, this cycle is different.  Is solar activity collapsing because of you?  That you drive the sun and not vice versa.  And that you, or the cumulative mind, has selected this moment in time to marshal the forces of the universe to save all life from the great evil that now consumes every aspect of life on this planet?  That the cries of suffering from all connected life are now in the midst of recreating our own reality to usher in the coming Age of Aquarius?  And with it, the necessary collapse of hierarchy, class, power and the state that defeat our natural inner state of being?  And why now?  Because it is written in the stars….  or, it is written into the place where the universe resides.  That is, the eternal energy of the mind.

Of course, the ego’s fear-driven need for control and certainty  mocks any such possibilities.  Instead, it continues to exalt man’s miniscule perceptions of knowledge of himself and the universe as it’s own religion that comforts its fear-based perceptions of reality.   And, as such, the ego worships the state, hierarchy and class as a manifestation of that knowledge that is then sprinkled down upon the masses by all-knowing state actors.   If one thing is certain, the ego is wildly arrogant in its own ignorance.  And if we are mindful, we see that inside of ourselves each and every day.  And we certainly see that in the wildly arrogant ignorance of control-driven institutions of state pathology. 

Anyone who tells you they have it all figured out is lying to you.  More importantly, their ego is lying to themselves.  And they are doing so out of the ego’s fear-driven intent of control that subverts the universe’s desire for discovery and truth.

posted by TimingLogic at 2:09 PM links to this post

Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Camille Paglia–Liberalism Lacks A Profound Sense Of Evil

This isn’t the title of the article but Camille makes this very statement in the article.  And I think this statement is much more profoundly accurate than the watering down necessary for public consumption.   Her article is very similar in spirit to a post I put up some time ago on the topic of evil. 

If evil was still called out as evil, the world would be a much different place.  But, there is a “sect” within the liberal community in particular that rejects evil.  This is substantially  driven by belief systems that life is random, life is meaningless,  life has no purpose and thus there is no greater power and meaning to our existence.   So, for state liberals the state becomes that greater power through which life is impacted for humanity.  In other words, this is a belief system that fundamentally believes people should outsource their internal guidance system and their own divinity to the state and state actors who benevolently act on their behalf.   This is part of the Godlessness we are experiencing today.

Belief systems get in the way of our ability to experience truth.  These belief systems have made it hard for many people to actually see evil.   Instead, evil is simply that Johnny had a bad childhood.   Well, that is mythical nonsense with no basis in proven science that doesn’t accurately account for the evil we are witnessing today.  As I have noted on here many times, Natan Sharansky, Soviet dissident noted, "In dictatorships you need courage to fight evil; in the free world you need courage to see evil." .   Outsourcing one’s internal guidance system is an act of fear driven by the disconnected ego.   And it is the basis for much of state liberalism.  It is also fundamentally behind much of the evil in this world.  And, as a result, the refusal to actually see evil within these flawed belief systems.  This is behind the rampant anti-Semitism we see in the world, the constant blaming of Israel as the oppressor of Arabs in Gaza who, by the way, elect terrorists, rapists, murderers the sort as their leaders.  And rely on the fanaticization and funding by the 500 million caliphate controlled Muslims in the Middle East.   Well, and the west’s liberal sympathy their propagandized  manipulation of   events they portray.   The Palestinian situation really must be framed as 500 million fanatic, caliphate-controlled Muslims who hold a million Arabs in diaspora exile in Gaza in order to to lob constant attacks against 5 million Jews.  All with one intent.  To murder all Jews.   Just like Hitler.  It should be no surprise that liberals supported Hitler as well.  Certainly I’m not stating they  supported the Nazi state’s murder of millions of people, but by then their support for granting greater and greater state power at the expense of their own internal guidance system, it was too late.   The monster they had created had grown uncontrollable.  Just like we see around the world today.

This inability to see evil also is responsible for the subjugation of mass amounts of humanity to state power that is now standing with their jack boot on the neck of humanity on every continent.  That includes the wholesale state violence against working class people on every continent.  Paglia notes other examples of lunacy in her most recent penning.  It’s everywhere.  And as I have noted on here in the past, it is going to collapse.

Title link here

posted by TimingLogic at 3:45 PM links to this post

Monday, September 29, 2014

European Central Bank Terrorists Threatened To Bankrupt Ireland

The shithole that is the ECB, the EU and all of the unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats who have literally stolen any semblance of democracy from Europeans is simply not sustainable.

Title link here.

posted by TimingLogic at 9:11 PM links to this post

“The Momentum Of The U.S. Dollar Advance Is Unprecedented”

A long-time thesis on here is the U.S. dollar is putting in a major bottom.  I have written time and again that people who kept screaming the dollar was going to collapse had no idea what they were talking about.   Just another outcome of a propagandized world that rejects science and the truth. 

It’s really no different than Leobardo DiCaprio, who himself cannot even spell science, producing anti-science documentaries on human-caused global warming.  Well, it’s time to stick a fork in that pig too.   I certainly appreciate that humanity is poisoning itself and the planet but that’s a separate issue global warmists seem to confuse with actual climate or, maybe more likely, wish use to manipulate and place fear within the public to terrorize humanity with their false meme.  And I certainly appreciate that the U.S. is a shithole of rotten corruption.  But whoever said that had anything to do with the direction of the dollar?    What nation on earth isn’t a rotten shithole of corruption?  What next?  Are we going to hear the U.S. is manipulating the dollar higher and that is the reason dollar bears are wrong?  That seems to be the common defense for being wrong.  ie, Our world is being manipulated so it isn’t my analysis of any particular situation that is wrong.  It’s everyone and everything else that is wrong.   If that is the case, one should have known that and thus known the dollar wasn’t going to zero.  And if that is the case, then one never would have actually said the dollar was going to collapse.   When do the circular rationalizations create a vortex of useless claims and counterclaims?

Nah.  More likely that dollar bears just had no idea what they were talking about.  Just like most everything else that flows from the mouth like vomit from prognosticators, pundits, experts and other self-appointed genius.  I guess we are learning across all aspects of our existence what I have intuitively understood my whole life.   There is almost no authenticity in this system.  Most claimed “experts” have no f*cking idea what they are talking about most of the time because their bloviating bullshit is almost always driven by self-interest and projecting my own personal success rather than actually providing an honest, helping hand to their fellow man.  They wish us to believe they understand what they are talking about because in some way they are going to profit from it.  So, none of us should ever listen to them.  And that means you should really start listening to yourself.   Of course, that is exactly what is going on.  That’s a good thing. 

Title link here.

posted by TimingLogic at 4:43 PM links to this post

Hong Kong’s Massive Protests Against Communist China

There are many people in this world who are busy defending their current or next oppressor.   Whether that is conservatives defending corporate power over democracy or liberals defending China and Russia as poor, exploited victims of American empire.  The acceptance of false prophets and golden calves are everywhere. (No that is not an end-times religious statement.  Just a fact of those who are always seeking some external guidance system or savior over their own higher power.)  I know the world has gone mad when people like Oliver Stone produce these  ex post facto documentaries of the Soviet Union as a benevolent giant that American power mischaracterized for its own self-interest.  I certainly have noted on here long before Stone’s lunacy that the Cold War could very well have been created by the US for benefits of extending class-based and political power.  And there is ample out-of-the-mainstream data that supports this perspective.  But anyone who refuses to acknowledge the evil disease that is state-forced communism is creating a delusion in their own mind that simply doesn’t reflect reality. 

When I first started writing about the coming collapse of China, including its own coming civil unrest, it was in the midst of what was characterized as the greatest economic miracle in history.  It was anything but.  And we will witness that very fact soon enough.  But it certainly was an awesome spectacle that exposed many silver linings in a world of unprecedented evil.   Over the last few days massive crowds have turned out in Hong Kong to reject the Chinese communist’s control over their sovereignty.  China, like the US, can never go back.  Their system of rule is finished.  Once China granted its people a taste of something other than communism, rations, the Borg controlling all aspects of their lives, etc, they started placing the nails in the coffin of communism and its massive centralized bureaucracy.   The only way they will ever be able to put the genie back in the bottle is through state violence.  As I noted long ago, war is coming to China.  It’s simply a matter of whether that war will be an internal one or an external one.  Will it be a war of will or will there be blood?   An internal war will be driven by the people and an effort to throw off the evils of communism.  An external war will be driven by the propagandized guise of a foreign enemy as the source of the Chinese people’s coming crises. 

It looks like the first salvo is the former.  Just like is happening all around the world.  A new Age of Enlightenment.   But let’s not forget that the communist party has more members than there are people in Britain.  And, those people enrich themselves solely through the perpetuation of state violence.   The communists are still in control and perpetuating their own brand of violence as recent headlines below tell us.

China plans nuclear subs near US coast

China hacks US companies

China and Russia close military technology gap

posted by TimingLogic at 9:09 AM links to this post

Friday, September 26, 2014

ProPublica Exposé: The Federal Reserve’s Crooked Omerta Culture Of Silence

This exposé by ProPublica is right on time.  By coincidence, the day after I penned the last article on Omerta culture, this exposé shows up.   You really have to appreciate an ability to read between the lines and understand how bureaucracy works when reading this to appreciate how profound this piece of journalism is.   With 46 hours of taped exchanges, we may actually find out much more in future releases. 

I was just talking to someone two days ago about business with a quasi-government institution.  In that regards it is like the Federal Reserve.  He remarked that his team of consultants was told to “slow down” because they were making this institution’s employees look bad.   One of the first things I ever wrote on here was that bureaucracy first exists to perpetuate itself.  Not to serve any purpose to society.  Government will never close any existing bureaucracies regardless of whether they serve any purpose.  They may combine them into other bureaucracies but that simply creates larger monoliths of incompetence and ultimately corruption.    Interestingly, we see that today with Homeland Security now moving to focus on climate change.  WTF?  What can these moochers and parasites get their claws into next? 

This article by ProPublica is a treatise for countless posts placed on here.   It highlights Federal Reserve Omerta culture, the incompetence of hierarchy, the incompetence of large, institutionalized bureaucracy, the crooked protection racket that exists for state actors, the endless cover-up of crooked behavior and on and on.   There is little doubt to anyone who opens their eyes that regardless of what crooked laws protect it, that the Federal Reserve exists only to protect the Wall Street cartel, a criminal bureaucracy itself.   The Federal Reserve is an undemocratic, unelected, unaccountable, nontransparent group of incompetent thugs who protect a ruling class of incompetent thugs in this nation.  It’s no different than a Soviet Union bureaucracy.  

Why does society need regulators to oversee criminal institutions and organizations?  We need a public banking system that could be overseen by watchdog groups free of charge.  Or, by community citizens who could rotate on the board of directors of a local public bank just like citizens do today for jury duty.  With the board of directors constantly rotating with everyone in the community, there is simply no way for systemic corruption to develop.    We don’t need big, bloated government agencies and incompetent regulators if we have public capital instead of private, class-based, rent-seeking capital that society has to constantly protect itself from.  And we don’t need unions to organize against ourselves to protect us from Godless corporate elements.  Corporate capitalism is a criminal enterprise by design and so is private banking.  They are both creations of European monarchies meant to enrich those of title and class.  They are the Godless antithesis of Enlightenment Principles.   While history has been rewritten by the status quo, and we are fed a big pile of propaganda bullshit about how corporate capitalism is akin to democracy, the reality is corporate capitalism and private banking are the very reasons we fought the Revolutionary War.

This is a good place to insert a reminder that I have written of many times over the last nine years.  That is, I am on record as stating the American people will take down the Federal Reserve and Wall Street this cycle.  Forever.  Neither serve any benefit to democracy, human expression or liberty.  To the contrary, they work diligently to destroy both.    We need a system of public capital whose primary intent is human development.  All humans.  Crime in this nation would collapse with a change in our socioeconomic system from one of control to one of empowerment and truth.

More of that hope and change you can believe in.

Final note.  If you want to listen to a podcast discussing the contents of the entirety of these taped discussions, This American Life has a podcast doing so.  They also have the original confidential internal report the Fed concealed from the public on its incompetence and corruption.

posted by TimingLogic at 11:07 AM links to this post