Is This As Good As It Gets?
If this is the start of a new bull market, I'd say the investment pickings are mighty slim. Fifty of the largest stocks likely comprising more than 25% of the capitalization of all US stocks that are driving the Nasdaq, the S&P and the Dow?
Now, I'm too lazy to validate what I said but take it in context. The numbers don't need to be accurate, the generalization does. I don't know what the market cap of the top 50 or so megacaps is but I would guess it to be an average of $100 billion in market cap. That would make their cumulative weighting around $5 trillion. Now, I'm guessing the thousands and thousands of shares listed on the three American exchanges plus the pink sheets probably have a capitalization of less than $15 trillion including those megacaps. So, if money is flowing into the top fifty companies and most everything else is not confirming, how do we define that has a start of a sustainable new trend? I'll tell you how. It's called new math. Or for those who never took math, it's called witchcraft and ouija boards.
Below is the advance-decline line for the Nasdaq over an approximately three year period. We are seeing less participation with each successive rally in stocks over this time line. ie, Down is bad, up is good. And how again is this bullish? Oh, I forgot. The advance-decline line doesn't matter anymore. That's right. Enjoy your new bull market and be sure to double down because you are surely holding a winning hand. And, what have I said repeatedly? It's all about risk management. Are the odds in your favor?
@Closing in on the longest run this cycle without a 1% intraday correction on the S&P. Each other time followed by a significant selloff.
@Weak buying pressure this move
@Homebuilders not confirming the gibberish of a soft landing
@Mortgage derivatives market pointing to a hard landing
@Weaker and weaker advancing issues
@Most cyclical earnings in half a century. ie, They could implode if we get a slowdown.
@Inverted yield curve
@Still hawkish Fed
@Tightening money supply
@12 of 14 times the Fed raised rates 3x or more ended in recession
@Negative cycle for capex
@Negative real wage growth
@Underemployment
@Small caps and Transports at bubble levels
@As many as one in three jobs created post 2000 in the real estate, retail or mortgage business. ie, Buy the home, finance the home, furnish the home.
I could type forever but you get the gist. Risk management.
Now, I'm too lazy to validate what I said but take it in context. The numbers don't need to be accurate, the generalization does. I don't know what the market cap of the top 50 or so megacaps is but I would guess it to be an average of $100 billion in market cap. That would make their cumulative weighting around $5 trillion. Now, I'm guessing the thousands and thousands of shares listed on the three American exchanges plus the pink sheets probably have a capitalization of less than $15 trillion including those megacaps. So, if money is flowing into the top fifty companies and most everything else is not confirming, how do we define that has a start of a sustainable new trend? I'll tell you how. It's called new math. Or for those who never took math, it's called witchcraft and ouija boards.
Below is the advance-decline line for the Nasdaq over an approximately three year period. We are seeing less participation with each successive rally in stocks over this time line. ie, Down is bad, up is good. And how again is this bullish? Oh, I forgot. The advance-decline line doesn't matter anymore. That's right. Enjoy your new bull market and be sure to double down because you are surely holding a winning hand. And, what have I said repeatedly? It's all about risk management. Are the odds in your favor?
@Closing in on the longest run this cycle without a 1% intraday correction on the S&P. Each other time followed by a significant selloff.
@Weak buying pressure this move
@Homebuilders not confirming the gibberish of a soft landing
@Mortgage derivatives market pointing to a hard landing
@Weaker and weaker advancing issues
@Most cyclical earnings in half a century. ie, They could implode if we get a slowdown.
@Inverted yield curve
@Still hawkish Fed
@Tightening money supply
@12 of 14 times the Fed raised rates 3x or more ended in recession
@Negative cycle for capex
@Negative real wage growth
@Underemployment
@Small caps and Transports at bubble levels
@As many as one in three jobs created post 2000 in the real estate, retail or mortgage business. ie, Buy the home, finance the home, furnish the home.
I could type forever but you get the gist. Risk management.
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