Friday, January 12, 2007

A 500 Miles Per Gallon Automobile Here Today?

GM has been stealing the thunder from all of their competitors recently. Auto & Truck of the year, announcement of the first plug-in hybrid anticipated to get 70 miles per gallon, the Cadillac CTS expected to win the most important new car introduction at the North American Auto Show and an electromotive auto concept. As an aside, we are going to talk about turnaround stories later this year.

I would encourage you to watch this 18 minute video with Bob Lutz, the vice chairman and head of product development at GM. The Volt is not a hybrid. This is electromotive technology pioneered by GM's electromotive unit decades ago and is the basis for modern railroad locomotion. In other words, it's source of power to the wheels is always electricity. This is proven technology. Actually, somewhat ancient by technology standards although I'm sure the control system technology is quite current. A brilliant friend of mine who is an engineer for NASA told me that electromotive locomotion is a perfect fit for diesel technology given the high efficiency ratings achieved at constant speed. Hence, the diesel electromotive technology driving the rail system. I suspect this is similar technology to the 330 mile per gallon diesel auto I highlighted many months ago.

Recently Boeing has announced their space solar panel technology achieved nearly 50% efficiency in terrestrial applications. The best of breed right now for solar technology is less than 20% and the average is closer to 10-14% so that appears to be a major advance. How far off is a viable solar electromotive automobile? Traditional automotive sheet panels made of solar panels? In other words a car which runs exclusively on sunlight. You won't be pulling a four ton boat behind you but it may be plausible for a city car concept.

As an aside, I find it ironic GE is attempting to sell its plastics business while recently acquiring petroleum technology businesses. A few years ago Ford showed an auto that was almost completely recycleable and based on biodegradable plastics. More recently Mazda, a Ford subsidiary, has perfected the use of bio plastics technology which is based on corn, is mass produceable and is going into production for auto interiors. Now, I don't sit on the strategy board at GE but I believe we are likely to see a bio composites revolution. Biodegradable PC housing, consumer electronic housing, automotive plastics, consumer packaging, carpeting, home upholstery, etc. Nearly everything made of plastic can and eventually will be biodegradable rather than petroleum based. Why does GE want to sell its plastics powerhouse and move into petroleum businesses? Now, petroleum based products aren't going away but how does this fit with GE's supposed "green" marketing message? Not that I care what GE does as long as they create jobs and innovate.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:14 AM