Friday, May 04, 2007

Where Did The Bulls Go?

How about a pre Cinco De Mayo post. I had said a few weeks ago that some of the work I was looking at was pointing to a correction soon. Three dates I was looking at were April 20th, 21st and May 5th. Since two of those days were on a weekend, I had guesstimated the following Mondays as replacement dates. Tomorrow is the third estimated date I had given to be replaced by this coming Monday. Now, to be honest, I'm not seeing the confirmations I need to put on any short positions but I thought I'd post an update regardless.

Below is a chart of the NDX over the last few months along with a buyer participation gauge. I pulled the chart this morning at 10:30 eastern US time so it is current through today. Seems the bulls have walked away since the minor correction earlier this week. Are they looking at the same date I am? May 5th is a mysteriously important date to many traders. No, it's not because it is Cinco De Mayo. The origins of May 5th being an important turning day are unknown as far as I know. Maybe it is because it is 5-5, both Fibonacci numbers. A little bit of market voodoo. Maybe I should have chosen 5-8 as a replacement date with both being Fibonacci numbers rather than Monday 5-7. Are the bulls coming back? Only time will tell.

posted by TimingLogic at 10:25 AM