Monday, July 30, 2007

Shanghai Index Moving Towards Critical Test

This is my third post in two days. I'm rolling out what may be the last post this week as I have alot going on and might not get another chance at updates. I had said earlier this month that I expected the Shanghai Index had a reasonable probability of making another run and that 4400 on the Shanghai Index is a major test. What kind of wishy-washy statement is that? Just as it sounds. If I was a long term investor and had ridden the market up, I wouldn't be selling yet. But, I'd nervously have my finger just above the sell button. That's about it. China is a runaway train and it is a seriously flawed argument put forth by many intelligent people that the Chinese government can stop it without wrecking it. Just as my prior post stated, government officials tried to stop the runaway train in the U.S. in 1929 and they failed as well.

We are knocking on the door of 4400. Are the bulls going to kick the door down? There is a valid argument either way as manias can surely become bigger manias.

There is also a chance of a marginal breakout and failure which is a very common movement in all financial markets as sophisticated traders sweep out the stop positions above prior highs and prior lows. Given China is at a serious inflection point when the global asset markets are teetering is rather interesting.
posted by TimingLogic at 12:58 PM

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