Monday, January 28, 2008

Rally-Ho?


I thought I'd post this as a follow up to my past two posts regarding a rally. Obviously, I have a different perspective on this market than most prognosticators. I believe this is one of the most dangerous economic environments we have ever seen. I'm not particularly interested in toying with the idea of a rally when some of the fundamental data I'm looking at is telling me to be very, very cautious. Now, I look at alot of market data and don't really use this as part of any kind of trading system but I thought it might be of interest to market technicians because I've never seen any work like it. And, no you can't have the code. But, I'm going to tell you what it is if you want to develop something similar.

For those of you that are technically inclined, the closest thing I can compare this to is Welles Wilder's ADX. Welles Wilder was a brilliant engineer and market technician. So, I hocked his work. Sort of. This isn't really based on price as his work was but instead it's based on volume. In a volatile market like this, traders are looking for a new trend to develop and volume is a key to not being chopped to pieces. The red line is negative volume and the green line is positive volume. Whichever volume is above the zero line is the dominant trend. The blue line is a signal line. When the blue line and green line are rising and above zero it tells me a positive move up might be developing. In this case, I am looking for a market bottom. Then I would look at my trading system to watch for a buy to develop. Notice when the market was making all time highs in June, stocks were breaking down and negative volume was the dominant trend. Therefore the majority of stocks were not participating in the move to new stock market highs. Anticipating a rally here is not a high probability trade. Will it develop into one at this price range? Maybe. But, not likely.
posted by TimingLogic at 6:19 PM