Monday, March 31, 2008

Hank's Credibility Is Waining Fast

"One of the things you must understand about 1929 and the antecedent years, as about any speculative episode, is the danger... in attributing intelligence to the simple fact that people are associated with large sums of money or large financial operations. We don't ask whether they're intelligent. We say, they're associated with all this money, so they must be intelligent. We attribute intelligence to association with financial operations. And only afterwards do we discover that error and that the people involved can be extremely successful in gulling themselves. That they can be in effect, and I use the word advisedly, marvelously stupid.

I used to be quite an optimist... I thought that by keeping the memory of the 1929 crash alive we would have a warning against the kind of feckless, fatuous optimism which caused people to get in and shove up the markets and shove it up more and get carried away by the illusion of ever-increasing wealth. I've given up on that hope because we've had it happen too often again since."


-- John Kenneth Galbraith

I thought it was time to throw this quote up one more time. I'm going to show this quote so often, readers will have it memorized. I've been marginally critical of Secretary Paulson and his involvement in creating this financial Frankenstein as the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and his lack of substance as Treasury Secretary. But, I'm always hopeful that in the interests of society, he will rise to the occasion as Treasury Secretary.

It appears Hank is still getting his sea legs because all we continue to see is more talk. Today the yammering press reports that Secretary Hank Paulson recommends sweeping reform of Wall Street. But, what we find out might be a little different. It appears much of this outline, as opposed to an actionable plan, was devised before Washington or Wall Street even realized they had cooperatively created a financial crisis. Were he and his buddies working on a gift for his Wall Street cronies? A gift that was intended to be part of a long term policy change that now is being passed off as reform?

After going on a six month Happy Hank whirlwind tour to convince everyone that markets are fine and the economy is wonderful, we now get more talk. A presentation of a 200+ page report of recommendations to be implemented at some time in the distant future in a far, far away galaxy. There are reports of reports of reports that have never seen the light of day in Washington. Including reports on ways to make sure we didn't have some of these crises in the first place. Reports that were shelved. Most likely because of lobbyists. Where are the substantive and immediate actions to increase transparency? This crisis will be much worse without a complete comeuppance and full accounting by banks. Not that this is going to keep society from taking its medicine. It is simply necessary to avoid possible loss of all confidence and potential collapse.

Hank, my man, can we count on you to actually get something done? This is the championship game and there are no second chances. Maybe you should ramble on over to the Congress and work jointly with the people who actually write the laws to come up with some type of actionable plan that increases transparency and restores confidence. Pronto!

It appears Professor Greenberger believes Hank's recommendations were lobbied for by Wall Street. That is a frightening but likely thought. And Mike Mandel over at BusinessWeek believes Hank's pep talk is dead on arrival.
posted by TimingLogic at 3:30 PM