Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Manhattan Real State Continues Its March Toward Implosion

I fully expect before this cycle completes, we shall see Manhattan real estate suffer some of the greatest and most sustained losses in the U.S. I wrote anecdotally a few months ago of the mad rush to the Hamptons and how talk of a new highway feeding the weekend party spot for Wall Street elites was ominously similar to 1929. A time when traffic jams also lined the roads to the Hamptons.

Today Bloomberg announces more cracks forming in the Manhattan real estate market. I believe these cracks will turn out to be permanent. In other words, as I wrote about some time ago, Wall Street is headed for a major and sustained downsizing. But, I have said those people leaving Wall Street - including the bubble within a bubble of MBAs and CFAs who entered the financial bubble over the last decade - will become fuel for sustainable development by becoming productive assets in the real economy. Not because they want to but because the market will force them to. (I would not be surprised to see the number of CFAs drop by at least 50% across the country just as will happen with another career favorite of the financial bubble - real estate agents.) Because necessity is the mother of invention, I consider this a long-term bullish development for the economy. Very bullish. Again the operative words are 'long-term'.

An interesting aside to this is that MBA candidates could very well drop substantially and MBA programs will have to re-jigger their curriculums from pushing around money to something else. Might you imagine what that new focus will be? I'll give you a hint. It won't be finance.
posted by TimingLogic at 1:09 PM