Friday, September 19, 2008

Hank Paulson Should Resign. Congress Must Take The Lead.

As I think through the consequences of this rush to judgement by Paulson, I am left with nothing but worry. Worry about an impulsive rush to judgement. Cooler heads must prevail. We must not let a ramrodded, ill-thought plan be approved by Congress in a moment of their panic. Paulson's plan simply has undefinable risks for America and the economy. We must remind our Congressional leaders that they should not panic into following Paulson's lead. They are people just like us and prone to irrationality in a moment of crisis. And, they are looking for leadership just as we are. Hank Paulson does not provide that leadership.

A free people are able to hone and refine solutions to problems by bringing together subject matter experts and having an intellectual discourse amongst disparate views. Give and take and competition of ideas refines and improves the course of action. It is the very foundation of our country's greatness at solving crises. Hank Paulson is most certainly not a subject matter expert and his idea has not passed a stress test of discourse. Need I remind you that every single expert in the free world told our government or had a clearly expressed opinion that we would end up in a quagmire in Iraq before the Iraqi war started. It is a major reason why we didn't take over the country in the first Iraqi war. Instead of intellectual discourse, we relied on the judgement of a single person who was also not a subject matter expert. The outcome was a disaster. This outcome will be no different. It will be a disaster.

At least a few are awakening to Paulson's helter skelter bailout. Politico, linked paragraph below, cites this bill could cost taxpayers $1 trillion. That is a number of fantasy. It is simply undefinable. To free banks of bad loans so they can make more bad loans is an incredibly irresponsible strategy. I seriously doubt this would stop at $1 trillion in its current vision espoused by Paulson.

In our post "It's Time For A Pro-Active Policy For Bailouts, Loans And Investments In Failing Companies" I wrote The government doesn't have the money to give everyone a handout and given the extent of this crisis, they are going to need to start prioritizing.

Some Republicans are expressing concerns about writing essentially a blank check to the Bush administration. “They're lurching from one crisis to another,” (Senator) Shelby said. “They don't seem to have a superplan to deal with this. ... We want to see the plan. This is not a done deal yet.

It doesn't appear Paulson has any training in crisis or problem management - overlapping sub-disciplines with a very specific methodology to root cause analysis, problem scope, problem management and problem resolution. Of course, the most important component to a successful problem management methodology is is pro-active management. On that note, it has just come across the newswires that Paulson is now quoted as saying, "Wall Street executives have remade the financial world.". I have a different perspective we have espoused repeatedly on here. That is, Wall Street executives have destroyed the financial world. And, Paulson helped create that destruction. Were Paulson aware of pro-active problem management methodologies which involves risk management, something else we have harped of on here, his cronies never would have created Frankenstein finance. And, we wouldn't be bailing them out. Paulson should recuse himself of this process. He should resign effective immediately.

What should then happen is an apolitical task force of our country's brightest minds on this topic should be defining government and market roles in managing this crisis and defining courses of action while we still have the time to do so. This doesn't need to take months. It could be convened and a framework developed in a week or two. If more crises erupt while that task force is convened, we could easily continue dealing with them as they arise. Which, frankly is no different than the helter skelter of today's approach. This should have happened ages ago. We had plenty of time to have such a task force put in place given this has been building with the public knowledge for well over a year.

This lack of action and seemingly incredible incompetence makes me wonder if a bailout was the plan all along. To do nothing until the wheels fell off. To let the people see how close to the edge we have come to build consensus for a bailout. Now, that is really hard for me to believe that idiots could actually be capable of such a plan. The alternative view is that we have the most incompetent politicians this country has ever seen. And, if that is the case, we are letting systemic incompetence decide the fate of our country. Neither perspective is reassuring.

I have thought a lot before posting this. Hank Paulson should resign effective immediately. And, the Congress should convene an emergency task force of our countries best and brightest. That includes Volcker, Greenspan and Bernanke.

I would encourage you to talk to everyone you know and encourage everyone to contact our Congressional leaders for both parties via phone or email immediately. To encourage them to take action in the form of a task force of subject matter experts. To not panic into a misguided mess.

Senate Leadership

House Leadership
posted by TimingLogic at 10:20 PM