Sunday, July 26, 2009

Is It Getting To Be That Time? Time To Short Goldman Sachs?

I have beat the drum repeatedly that the market is turning against Goldman Sach's business model. Frankly, I'm not sure Goldman will survive this crisis. I don't feel like putting a lot into this post but if we have talked about a lot of macro changes over the past four years that are the foundation for my bearishness. But, probably the most important reason to be bearish is that the lobbyist bubble is going to pop. When companies can no longer rig markets by paying for legislation that gives them a corrupt and opaque method of ripping off people and markets, their advantages in the market place are marginalized. That means entities taking advantage of this fact will need to find an honest way to survive in a future world. One with a business model that adds value to the economy. Today, I can honestly say Goldman Sachs adds little to no value to the American economy with any of its lines of businesses.

Goldman is the perfect investment for this environment as we wrote back in 2007. A time when we also wrote that their perceived brilliance has often been associated with coming economic doom. Mergers & acquisitions, hedge funds, investment services to hedge funds, trading, exposure to commodities, investment banking, etc. All of these businesses were, are or again will be in crisis. Likely permanent crisis. The government wasted our capital bailing out a firm that adds no economic value to the American economy. Goldman's business model is strictly one which shifts wealth.

Is Goldman's golden goose about to get cooked? Is the source of Goldman's latest manipulation, wealth redistribution and, as Barry Ritholtz noted, possible stealing, about to be taken away from them?
posted by TimingLogic at 10:26 AM