Thursday, April 22, 2010

The Cycle Of Volatility - North Korea At Night

Let's look at one of our themes, volatility. As we have written ad nauseam, The last time we witnessed anything similar was the time frame around the Great Depression.

The world is substantially underestimating volatility in coming years. Very, very substantially. Volatility is building in a wide array of dynamics including remarks we have made re potential famine, conflict, economic collapse, revolution and other outcomes.

North Korea is a country in permanent crisis. The proud owner of the bomb. The proud owner of a pathological leader. T proud owner of a brainwashed, closed society. Might you imagine any outcomes which could push a Korean crisis over the edge? In a cycle of volatility I could imagine countless risks associated with North Korea. A primary risk is a collapse in China. China is North Korea's primary trading partner and financial backer. A collapse in China could result in a North Korea unable to feed itself.

Below is a satellite photo of North Korea at night. I believe this is about ten years old. The white dots are exactly what you would expect. They are lights. See anything disconcerting with this picture? Duh. The black hole of North Korea. This is an extreme example of what is possible with a system of economic feudalism, serfdom and cronyism. Where self-determination is interrupted by a handful of bureaucrats. On some substantially lesser level, this type of economic stagnation is what we see in the United States as a result of monopolies and government's endless encroachment on our economic freedoms both directly and as a result of neoliberal economic policies.



posted by TimingLogic at 10:09 AM