Saturday, October 28, 2006

The Pickup Truck Economy

While GM, Ford and DaimlerChrysler continue their turnaround efforts, the auto business remains extremely weak. As I've mentioned before, the old adage "as goes GM, so goes the nation" still rings true. While the auto industry no longer dominates the economy as it once did, its economic fingers are massive from suppliers to logistics to transportation to basic materials to electronics to tires to energy to their retail operations. As the entire auto and supplier industry experiences significant layoffs and bankruptcies, the effects will be felt well beyond the first order economic impact and well into consumer banking, real estate, quick service restaurants, retail, consumer durables and more.

But, more than anything, the numbers which are most disturbing are the near collapse of pickup truck sales. While SUVs or other gas guzzlers may be somewhat discretionary and therefore open to substitution, I wonder how much of the full size pickup truck market is. Growing up in a farming and manufacturing community, nearly every family I knew had a pickup truck. From farmers to skilled tradesmen to small business owners to entrepreneurs to construction workers, the necessity of a pickup truck is arguably essential to the economic livelihood of millions of Americans. So, with sales off so dramatically, what does that say about the state of the economy or the paychecks of those who need a pickup truck to sustain their businesses and families? I don't have the pickup truck sales statistics for the 1970s oil crisis but this is an unparalleled collapse over the last twenty five years. I'm a believer that the American consumer is never to be underestimated. Yet, is it possible the consumer is healthy with such a glaring weakness in the sales of a staple product?
posted by TimingLogic at 10:55 PM