Rantings on Markets, Economics and Business Strategy: Retail Sales "Surge"?

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Name: TimingLogic

Location: United States

I'm an electrical engineer and mathematician by training. My career has spanned diverse areas of expertise from being part of a team which designed the world's most powerful computers to corporate consulting around business transformation and information-based solutions to being a corporate sales and marketing executive in the information technology and business consulting space. I’ve led teams responsible for innovative and transformative solutions and been part of teams that helped set strategy for many of America's greatest companies. Two of my interests are econometrics and quantitative - qualitative analysis. Over the years I have developed risk-based models and trading systems meant to identify significant investment opportunities and periods of extreme risk. My blog is an outlet for another of my passions, writing. I generally consider myself a contrarian. Therefore, many of my rantings are meant to encourage people to question what they believe to be true.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Retail Sales "Surge"?

The AP has a story out this morning stating retail sales surge by 1%. Well, given this is the season most retailers generate 30-50% of their profits, I don't think they would classify this as a surge. Be that as it may, Best Buy reported major appliance sales were down significantly and the auto industry has already reported their sales are down, yet both of these numbers are up in the ESTIMATED data reported this morning. Is a downward revision in the cards? A couple of data points I track are pointing to a weak Christmas.

posted by TimingLogic at 10:03 AM

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Retail Sales "Surge"?