Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Shanghai Index Down 45%


As we have written ad nauseum, China's economy is a bubble. Likely the biggest bubble since the American economy in 1929. It's quite obvious the Shanghai Index issued a sell signal some time ago. All of the pumpers telling people that China's stock market was going to outer space as late as mid 2007 (There were many. Although by then only the completely brainwashed were still pumping.) only have to achieve returns of about 100% to get back to break even. Given investment returns around the globe are likely to be negative to single digits for the next decade, it will likely take twenty to thirty years of returns to make up any losses incurred by investors buying into this scheme in the last year or so. The index has fallen drastically so a rally could develop at any time. If there are Shanghai rallies, there will be plenty of opportunity for adept investors to hop back on the bubble. But given some data is showing global trade is cratering and more reliable data out of India (more reliable than propaganda out of communist China) is showing their industrial production growth rate has recently fallen by 50%, I'd tend to doubt we'll be seeing Pax Asia any time soon. Uh, what? But the elitist intelligentsia has told us emerging markets are going to counter the U.S. slow down. If I had a dollar for every time............
posted by TimingLogic at 5:42 AM