Monday, May 19, 2008

Stephen Roach Discusses The Current Economic Situation

I've expressed my fondness for Stephen Roach on here many times. I have a link to his commentary but I don't believe he still comments regularly since his new position as Morgan Stanley's China chief. Stephen has a long history of being above the incompetence and group think of Wall Street. For that I am always interested in what he has to say. In the last few days he spoke on Bloomberg about many current issues.

His comments about the EU are interesting. There are many who now cite the Euro as a sound currency versus the deleterious dollar. That's really quite funny. It shows much of the bias people have for current data. In other words, the Euro is strong while the dollar has been weak. Yet, there is very little intelligent discussion as to why or what future data would do to change that.

The ECB is simply another elitist institution of incompetence that has contributed to much of the mess we now see around the globe. Much more so than the Federal Reserve by its direct action. The ECB's diligence against inflation while the world craters around them validates the roomful of bureaucrats don't see the train coming down the track. While the Federal Reserve does everything in its power to prepare America, whether you agree with their approach or not, the ECB comparatively looks like a deer in the headlights. This highlights why I have a significant disdain for bureaucratic institutions in whom the people entrust their future and livelihood. History is replete with examples of such folly. Your livelihood is best served by you, best understood by you and best tendered by you. Misplaced trust in elitists is the largest single contributor to what is now unfolding.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an outcome to this cycle be an invalidation of a pan European central bank. Well, we'll watch and learn as the current environment unfolds.

Anyhow, the interview can be watched here.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:00 AM