Friday, September 05, 2008

Robert Shiller Interview

I have great admiration for Robert Shiller - a link to his web site is on the link list of my blog. Below is an interview with Shiller on housing. Note that Shiller states that home prices may not go up back up for a long time even though most people believe they will recover after this cycle passes. You'll remember I wrote quite some time ago that home builder stocks were not going to see the peak 2005 levels again for ten to twenty years. Because both are driven by the same fundamentals, we can expect neither to reach those levels for a decade or two. I can tell you why that will likely happen but then I'd have to kill you. By the way, you might also want to think about my video update earlier in the week. Homes are assets just like equities. If I was writing of equity prices possibly returning to the 1995 price pivot, you might also want to consider that home prices could as well. Just a thought. :-) Enjoy the interview with a thoughtful contrarian.

posted by TimingLogic at 6:40 AM