Friday, February 27, 2009

Contributions To 4th Quarter GDP

The chart below is very easy simple to interpret. If you haven't seen the format before, it might appear confusing. Anything above the horizontal zero line is a cumulative contributor to growth. Anything below the line is shrinking and cumulatively adding to its contraction.

The economy literally collapsed in the fourth quarter. In other words, imports, a build in inventories and government spending accounted for approximately 4% growth in GDP. Investment, exports and consumption together declined at approximately a 9% clip.

I guess we can keep building things and putting them on a shelf until someone buys them. That's a favorite policy of the Chinese communist party. It's also foundational to supply-side economics that led to a new wave of thinking in Washington. Thinking that we can spend our way out of problems. Thinking that still drives our government today regardless of party affiliation. Thinking that George Bush senior coined as voodoo economics. That is, until he became a convert for his own political gain. Or, is that a sellout for his own political gain? And, you trust politicians to solve this?

You should only trust the American people as knowing how to solve this. Not elitist political hacks, brainwashed Harvard MBAs and ideologically driven economists. For God's sake this is common sense. Have we lost that? If politicians want to solve this crisis, they should do what they are elected to do - listen to their constituency. The people. And, then drawing some very obvious conclusions that no politician, mainstream economist, business leader or the media seems to grasp.

posted by TimingLogic at 6:42 AM