Saturday, July 18, 2009

The Wall Street Myth Machine - Finally An Expert Who Realizes We Are Going To Witness An Oil Bust

Now, an "expert" who is finally willing to embrace a bust in oil. It's coming folks. I don't care if the dollar goes to zero, which we have written for years isn't going to happen. That's another of Wall Street myths - oil goes up because the dollar goes down. Well, it's wrapped in another myth too - the dollar is going to collapse.

In fact, most everything we see is based on myths - commodity supercycle, China's economic emergence, the emergence of the Asian century, peak oil, the development of the Middle East economies, the genius of sovereign wealth funds, the protection provided by accumulated currency reserves, the safety of bonds, the dollar collapse, the emergence of Russia, the dollar-oil relationship, asset class investing, diversified investing, Wall Street's investment paradigms, Wall Street's quantitative finance, and on and on and on. This has been the biggest bamboozling in our history. And we wrote about all of it being bull-oney and now we get to experience the reality that proves it was all a scheme.

One of the biggest myths remains. That Goldman Sachs is brilliant and actually missed this crisis. Goldman Sachs would be bankrupt right now were it not for taxpayers. They would cease to exist. There are no assets worthy of reorganization. It would be kaput. Even though their alumni are sprinkled all throughout government and banking to pull levers for their benefit. Even though they have paid huge sums of money to government to get legislation and regulation that gives them a huge advantage to perpetuate their schemes. They were an architect of this mess. They participated heavily in buying toxic assets and perpetuating all of the crises we see before us. It was merely luck and connections that saved them. Yet this myth of brilliance continues to be perpetuated by even their detractors.

This perpetuation continues to give credence to the false truth that politicians and our elected leaders should listen to Goldman Sachs because they missed this crisis. So, therefore, they know what they are talking about and their advice is invaluable to dealing with this crisis. A hugely erroneous myth. And one that will ultimately increase the size of the global economic bust as the wrong policies and remedies are applied to the problems. And, ironically, that myth creates an even more challenging future for Goldman itself.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:24 AM