Federal Reserve Forecasts Recovery To Take 5 To 6 Years Yet It Hasn't Shown Any Ability To Forecast Beyond Next Month.
The Federal Reserve released the June minutes of the all-powerful goat herders running this goat rodeo at the FOMC. Their conclusion? The most unemployed will be dead before we see an economic recovery.
Let's remember one thing. The Federal Reserve has never forecast any systemic or major event accurately. Ever. During a cycle of volatility, you can throw forecasting out the window. Curve fitting and linearity of thought are dead until we end this cycle. Yet this is exactly what the Federal Reserve is attempting to do through their statement. An estimated recovery of 5 to 6 years is really telling us they have absolutely no clue when the jobs market will recover. (It never will without a change in economic policy.) Even in the best of times, how many people can forecast six years into the future? Nobody. Period. People may be able to guess but we've seen what guessing at the Federal Reserve buys us; complete incompetence.
Let's remember one thing. The Federal Reserve has never forecast any systemic or major event accurately. Ever. During a cycle of volatility, you can throw forecasting out the window. Curve fitting and linearity of thought are dead until we end this cycle. Yet this is exactly what the Federal Reserve is attempting to do through their statement. An estimated recovery of 5 to 6 years is really telling us they have absolutely no clue when the jobs market will recover. (It never will without a change in economic policy.) Even in the best of times, how many people can forecast six years into the future? Nobody. Period. People may be able to guess but we've seen what guessing at the Federal Reserve buys us; complete incompetence.
<< Home