Friday, August 06, 2010

Ten Year Treasury Breaks Out To New High Today. (New Interest Rate Lows) Wall Street Is Once Again Holding The Bag.


The ten year Treasury is sporting a new low in interest rates today. Interest rates have broken convincingly below the June low. In other words, after almost two months, the interest rate bottom has not held.

Remember, gentlemen prefer bonds. ie, Commodities and stocks in this environment are the home of either pure speculators or pure idiots.

As we have highlighted numerous times, I am quite certain Wall Street is once again holding the bag. But instead of mortgage products, as in 2008, now it's stocks and commodities as Wall Street bats shares back and forth between themselves using the same algorithms in a dance to the death. Remember, our long term thesis is that this commodity supercycle Wall Street has brainwashed people into believing is going to turn into a commodities bust. And we were writing this in the face of overwhelming feverish bullshit about Peak Oil and China buying commodities for decades to serve its massive population as Wall Street rammed commodities prices to the moon. Peak Oil may come some day, but it won't come when every person in the world is aware of it. Nor not in the middle of the biggest overcapacity bubble in the history of the world, something we wrote about years before this collapse when the Wall Street carnival barkers were in control of the media and spouting endless pablum about a Brave New World. Well, they still are the predominant voice in the media..........

If you read a few of the links I provided some days ago mocking financial reform, there were stories of financial firms manipulating commodities. One of the stories highlighted some concern over profits panic as JP Morgan was starting to have its ass handed to it in the commodities market. Yet the head of that unit arrogantly predicted that was temporary and that JP Morgan should be feared. Yeah, I fear their failure not their false sense of brilliance. If you have read our prior posts, the same dynamic we have written that would develop in stocks, would also develop in commodities, which supports our thesis of a commodities bust. In other words, Wall Street has become the commodities market and that too will experience eroding trading conditions as major financial firms end up trading against themselves with fewer and fewer players and a diminishing pot as in a game of poker.

The bond market is unconvinced of the lunacy of the Wall Street casino (in other words, global credit markets are in shambles) and now there's no one for Wall Street bag holders to pawn off their massively overpriced equities or commodities. That is, other than the American taxpayers bailing out their endless incompetence. And that means the Fed would have to start buying stocks and commodities to save their stupid asses. Wall Street has won nothing. The con game is over and now its time for the market to mete out its punishment.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:25 AM