The Futures Traders Are Gaming The Market
Today we opened up big. Actually, before the market opened the Dow futures were up nearly one hundred points. This on the back of a bad jobs report. There were zero buyers through this posting at nearly 1:00 pm. We are now negative on most of the indices. The futures players are gaming people right now. It's like a cat pawing at a dead mouse and "long" investors are the dead mouse. Markets just don't fall off of a cliff in most instances and there are enough signs if you are observant.
I'm not going to give buy & sell signals or investment advice on here but if the S&P has been in a plus or minus 2.5% range for nearly sixty trading days and in a plus or minus 1% range for nearly thirty trading days and can make no progress, the market isn't forming a bottom where we are going appreciably higher on some magic carpet ride. That is not how markets work. Our rally is likely ending soon. My trading model is still on a sell or short from the May top. We may yet get a strong rally this year but this does not appear to be it.
While it is merely a guess, I would expect we will not get any attempt at a rally until we get to 1300 on the NDX. But, I wouldn't bank on it either. The market leaders are so overbought it's nearly unbelievable to me that people continue to say the market is oversold. What we will likely see is a rotational selling into the leaders this cycle. The bulls have been holding the line here awaiting the incoming data and Fed's next move. Don't expect a flood of buyers to step in if the data continues to erode and the Fed hikes. If the smart money gets more and more clarity, there could be a dearth of buyers and we could see a little more aggressive free fall. You don't need sellers for a market to drop. All you need is a buyer's strike. Daily gyrations are hard to anticipate at times so this is just a little forecasting folly based on logic. The market is totally illogical at times so.........
I'm not going to give buy & sell signals or investment advice on here but if the S&P has been in a plus or minus 2.5% range for nearly sixty trading days and in a plus or minus 1% range for nearly thirty trading days and can make no progress, the market isn't forming a bottom where we are going appreciably higher on some magic carpet ride. That is not how markets work. Our rally is likely ending soon. My trading model is still on a sell or short from the May top. We may yet get a strong rally this year but this does not appear to be it.
While it is merely a guess, I would expect we will not get any attempt at a rally until we get to 1300 on the NDX. But, I wouldn't bank on it either. The market leaders are so overbought it's nearly unbelievable to me that people continue to say the market is oversold. What we will likely see is a rotational selling into the leaders this cycle. The bulls have been holding the line here awaiting the incoming data and Fed's next move. Don't expect a flood of buyers to step in if the data continues to erode and the Fed hikes. If the smart money gets more and more clarity, there could be a dearth of buyers and we could see a little more aggressive free fall. You don't need sellers for a market to drop. All you need is a buyer's strike. Daily gyrations are hard to anticipate at times so this is just a little forecasting folly based on logic. The market is totally illogical at times so.........
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