Thursday, April 17, 2008

Crocs Was Indeed A Crock

I've written on here about how ungodly overvalued Crocs was. With the stock price down about 90% and closing in on zero, a lot of people have lost a big bunch of money. Crocs was a favorite stock of one of the big clowns on the comedy channel. What that clown doesn't seem to realize is that ninety nine percent of people aren't traders and getting in and out of these risky schemes pumped up by momentum morons is often very difficult.

When Crocs was in the mid sixties, I told a friend three times in a week to sell because I saw some things that led me to believe the stock was setting up for a significant dump. She sold two days before the stock collapsed. All I got was a free lunch. At the time I told this person the fair value of Crocs was about $5. I am sure she thought I was kidding given the price at the time was thirteen times higher than $5. If you read this, I wasn't kidding and given how far it has dropped, you owe me another lunch.

By the way, for any of the bottom fishers who bought the stock after the initial dump, let me give you some simple advice. Never, ever, ever buy a stock that is reporting a substantial rise in inventories and trading at nearly twenty times book value. You'll always be a clown.

posted by TimingLogic at 7:54 AM