Saturday, September 06, 2008

Bill Gross Warns Of Financial Tsunami Unless.........There Is No "Unless".

Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of insanity -- Albert Einstein

Bill Gross seems a decent sort. And, I respect what he has accomplished. Gross is often wrong but he's also often right in his remarks. In the case of what is quoted on Bloomberg a few days ago, he's both wrong and right. I will say that he is in the business of OPM(Other people's money)that created this Frankenstein finance. And, his industry has been living off of the usurious mutual fund fee structure I've ranted against often. Where else can 90% of people underperform their respective benchmarks and make tens to hundreds of millions of dollars? Did you ever get a subpar performance rating at work and receive a fifty million dollar bonus? This generally usurious environment in the finance industry has created great wealth and distorted our politics and, therefore, our economy. In no great irony, that wealth has come from the sovereign and has been used to lobby government for capital at the expense of the sovereign for decades.

I haven't read Gross' commentary the Bloomberg article is citing. I usually try not to read a lot of specific comments from Wall Street as it creates bias. What could create more bias than someone making tens of millions of dollars a year telling society what they need to do to fix his business or the economy? There is so much baloney circulating out there. Especially since stuff started hitting the fan.

I want to share something again that I have written often of - the strategy or leader that(who) gets you into the mess isn't one to take you out of it. In other words, it takes new strategies and new ideas because what was done right up until a successful turnaround contributed to the failure. That applies to personal life, government, corporations, Wall Street or the economy. Simple, huh? It's the essence of what Einstein was saying in the quote above. Yet, it is exactly what we see unfolding. In other words, trying to save the status quo is literally insane. The status quo is dead and insanity will not win the day. Change is completely inevitable and is very bullish long term. Unfortunately, it is very bearish intermediate term. Remember before all of this broke the Wall Street pigs squealed with glee at their invincibility and the global economy seemed unstoppable. Wall Street had no idea what was building beneath them. Why would we assume they now know how to get out of an environment that they didn't realize even existed? And basically still don't understand. One of the first posts on here I wrote that this was the cleansing cycle with potential for tremendous destruction. That wasn't an opinion. It was based on mathematical fact. As I have said before, math doesn't lie. Only people do.

The Fed's job is to save FDIC deposits and keep the banking system from collapse. I obviously support that mission from my prior posts. You should too unless you want a guaranteed depression, to lose your job and all of your savings. But, Bill Gross seems to be calling on the Treasury to save the Frankenstein finance he has unknowingly been complicit in creating. The Treasury's mission is not to monetize mistakes made by Bill Gross or the Wall Street casino with the taxpayer's checkbook. That is taxation without representation or another form of usury and a few fellows by the name of Jefferson, Adams, Paine, Madison and Washington had a few words to say about that.

Bill Gross is right that there is a financial tsunami coming. But, he is wrong that the Treasury has the ability to stop it Mitigate some outcomes? Hopefully. Anyway, it's more important to help citizens than it is to help Bill Gross or Wall Street. Yes they are related but the people of this country come first. We the people................

Ben Bernanke realizes the gravity of this environment. He didn't slice rates as fast as he did for the fun of it. I was writing then that I was supportive of Bernanke while almost every bearish voice could be heard cheering Trichet as having the moxie to do what was "right" and hold the line on cutting rates. Bernanke has been vindicated because he has given the U.S. a significant lead time in dealing with this crisis. His actions allowed exports to pick up some of the slack, exposed the crisis that allowed outside capital to flow into crisis areas, allowed firms to borrow cheap collateralized capital, etc. All the while the rest of the world sat dumbfounded at what was unfolding. And, consequently, they either raised rates or did nothing. Frankly, we are all holding the bag but in the game of relativism, it's Trichet and emerging markets holding the biggest bag.

Bill Gross needs to come to a realization that a new paradigm exists. And, central planning isn't going to change it.
posted by TimingLogic at 8:54 AM