The Skyscraper Indicator Part Deux - Burj Dubai Is The New Tower Of Babel

(Burj Dubai. Click on the photo for a large view. Photo courtesy of Reuters.)

With all of the fear surrounding the U.S., it's time for a reminder that the largest risks in the global economy lie outside of the U.S. - something we harped on while many prognosticators told us emerging markets were replacing the U.S. as the new engines of economic growth. Well, there are still a few stragglers holding on to that position but their numbers have come down dramatically. I wrote a post quite some time ago about the Skyscraper Indicator. Since my Google search box is working erratically, here's a link to that post. I would encourage you re-read it. Especially the last few paragraphs. (If you have any suggestions about how to improve Google's site search, I would appreciate an email as I have spent some time tinkering with it to no avail.)

While the Skyscraper Indicator is anecdotal, some of the quantitative data I have used to anticipate other outcomes we now see developing helps me to confidently appreciate its timeliness this cycle. Re the Skyscraper Indicator, we obviously saw the Manhattan skyline fill out as the U.S. was on the verge of the Great Depression and we saw the Sears Tower & World Trade Center being finished in the early 1970s right as the U.S. entered the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

What is frightening this cycle is the mind boggling skyscraper construction across the emerging market spectrum. And, it is no coincidence I have written ad nauseum about the risks for emerging market collapse, depressions and volatility. China and oil fiefdoms in the Middle East contain the majority of the world's high rise cranes this cycle with nearly unbelievable construction booms. (Very cool and eerily ominous site here. Ominous because the site is new and could be intepreted as an online variation of the 'Newspaper cover' indicator.)

The Burj Dubai has recently been announced as the world's tallest building and still growing. I must say the Burj is truly is an amazing example of human achievement. Watching the men in this video scale the heights of the Burj is almost frightening. Might I add the show host shows a little fear. Who wouldn't? I believe the Burj is now well beyond 160 stories yet this video is only 136 stories.

You might remember the Tower of Babel from many religious teachings. Babel was a society that was to unite the world. The Tower of Babel was a symbol of its great hubris - effectively that man had reached a level of accomplishment to challenge God. And proceeded to build a tower to the heavens to see what God was doing. And, Babylonians were thusly rewarded with such great hubris by a total collapse of their society. Is this a teaching based on a true story or is it was an ancient parable of wisdom regarding hubris? Ancient civilizations were incredibly advanced thinkers. In many respects seemingly more so than modern civilizations that have come to be skeptical of anything not proven by sight or science. A belief system that is a logical fallacy that stunts intellectual enlightenment and advancement.

Do the teachings of Babel ring a bell? I mean in today's terms? Is Dubai not undertaking its building boom in an attempt to unite (a destination of) the world's elite just as Babel was also to unite humanity? But, from an even broader perspective, let's consider the ramifications beyond the Burj Dubai. Has humankind not killed the concept of an Enlightened One through the hubris associated with our undeniable achievements of brilliance? Our all-knowing faith in our abilities? Have we not mocked Babel? Or, if you are spiritual, have we not mocked an Enlightened One? That said, this really has nothing to do with spiritual beliefs. I am simply seeking possible acknowledgement that much of the world has reached a level of great hubris.

Ironically the Burj Dubai is within a stone's throw of ancient Babylon and the original Tower of Babel. The Burj Dubai, a symbol of incredible hubris, is indeed the modern day Tower of Babel. And, as I have written, I expect Dubai's economy to enter a time of serious crisis if not collapse. Just as Nimrod was responsible for hubris in the ancient city of Babel, so too are the nimrods running modern day Dubai responsible for its hubris. Today's nimrods are going to learn a 5,000 year old lesson on hubris.