Friday, February 27, 2009

Goldman Sachs - China To See Slowdown. Doh!


This is a perfect example of what I have often talked about on here. Wall Street firms were heavily pumping China for the last eight years. Showing extrapolated growth ad infinitum, China inheriting the mantle as the world's largest economy, 1.3 billion consumers, China graduating 30x the number of engineers as the U.S., China driving the commodity supercycle and on and on and on. Guess what? All of it was wishful thinking. And for the companies that have now invested permanently in China, ie capital projects, where their investments can't be taken out of the country, now what? We've hammered on every one of these fallacies and more.

I don't think I read a single cautionary perspective out of a single firm on Wall Street with regards to China. That is, until it was too late. Now Goldman Sachs comes out in the last few days and states that China is likely to experience a larger slow down than anticipated. Ya think?

We've been anticipating a complete bust for years. There is not a single factual reason to believe China's bust will not be magnitudes larger than the U.S. depression post 1929. Not a single reason.

Now, look at today's chart of the Shanghai Index. What is one supposed to do with cautionary remarks on China today? Use it to make paper airplanes? Print off as many copies as as possible for abrasive toilet paper? I think the best thing one could do is pray. Because if anyone owns Chinese equities, they have held through one of the greatest equity market collapses in history. Now, they should pray any rear-view mirror analysis is wrong.

Did anyone learn anything from the prior pumping and dumping internet bubble? Where was the concern two or three or four years ago? Where was the risk management?
posted by TimingLogic at 3:42 PM