Wednesday, March 25, 2009

British Sovereign Bond Auction Failure - And So Begins The Global Unwinding

Actually, it began a short while ago with a German bond failure. These events are ominous storm clouds on the horizon. Is anyone watching?

While the rest of the world was enamored with emerging markets and their cash generating economies, we wrote that they would eventually be put in a position to no longer buy U.S. bonds. That their surpluses would be burned in attempts to save their own economies and bankrupt banking systems. My position surely seemed hilarious as China, Russia and Dubai, amongst others, were apparently ready to inherit the earth. But, we wrote that these economies would collapse. And they are collapsing.

Why would anyone listen to some obscure blogger with no formal economics training when Nobel Prize winning economists were busy pumping Pax Globalia? The same reason why no one would ever listen if I said I know how to solve America's economic crisis. Something we have written of on here. That would be a misplaced belief system. That those with the microphone or positions of authority have all of the answers. Yes, there are solutions contrary to the yammering crew that says we should just let society collapse and the system will take care of itself. A position of sheer madness. Ironically, solutions are based in sound economics, something the mainstream economics community seems to know little about. Why would they? They have been trained by universities that have eschewed common sense.

Time for a short rant. Anyone without a mainstream view is always marginalized by society and the status quo. Be unique. Be yourself. Be progressive in your thoughts. Throughout history the status quo never advanced anything in culture, arts, literature, science or human achievement. And they surely never advanced human equality. For that very reason they won't solve this crisis until we see substantially more pain. Wall Street bankers and politicians are trying to save the status quo yet the economy is giving them a gift. It is telling them exactly how to solve this crisis. Is anyone listening? Sure. Many people. But none of them have the microphone.

Now obviously these bond failures have dire implications. We wrote of that as well while the world was partying - long term sovereign bonds getting plastered. We haven't specifically written of the end state of this crisis but it's not terribly difficult to draw some easy conclusions from my writings. Here's two. One, the world is moving to a self-funded economic model. Sorry but I've said globalization is dead so many times on here I feel like a parrot. At some point G20 leaders will quit holding photo-ops and realize the world has permanently changed. Until then we'll watch Rome burn while the status quo tries to save itself. ( I'll write more outcomes and dynamics of the end state at some point. I just can't promise when.) And, two, even more disconcerting is this environment will impact sovereign entities with consequences outlined in the many posts I have written regarding The Game.

I have a post for tomorrow or Friday outlining the failures of Geithner's plan. I will repost the the dynamics of The Game. So, you can check back then or you may check the January 2008 archives to read what I am talking about. The post I am referring to is "There Was No Reason To Panic..............".
posted by TimingLogic at 9:57 AM