Tuesday, December 08, 2009

S&P Update

We have shown this trendline chart a handful of times. It is of the rally starting in March. This is a short term view. What we basically see is after the market first broke the lower trendline, we had a technical oversold rally that pushed up to the middle trendline. Since then we have a meandering market. Trendline breaks as an event seldom result in a massive selloff but instead the eventual formation of a new trendline. That said, market behavior has changed substantially over the last three months as we have noted on numerous occasions.

December is likely to be a low volume, listless market. That is, unless we get some type of substantial exogenous events. There are many out there which will indeed put pressure on the market at some point. Most shock-type events will be from outside of the United States. You know what that means ......... one shouldn't be short the dollar. But indeed that dynamic has played some role in the commodities, gold, bond and equity market rallies. Booyah!

posted by TimingLogic at 10:56 AM