Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Here It Comes: The Divine Winds (Kamikaze) ..... Of Volatility

A couple of friends have sent me links from other financial blogs titled "Here it comes" after we started putting up our "Here it comes" series of posts. Either there is a mind meld of the universe of consciousness or this blog is a favorite of quite a few other bloggers. Enjoy the post. Just no flagrant plagiarism please. "Here it comes" is now copyrighted. Haha. :)

I read some remarks recently that Japan had shifted its primary economic ties westward to China in lieu of the United States. And the author was extolling the virtues of such a harmonious decision. Obviously because the author thought the United States was doomed and the next century was the Asian century. Anyone who understands anything about geopolitics, history and economics knows this type of analysis is absolutely ridiculous. Relations between China and Japan have been tense at best and downright brutally heinous at worst for well over a millennium. That Japanese businesses now use China for cheap labor and a source of profits changes that dynamic how? Remember, as we have cited, American multinational corporations loved the Nazis before the outbreak of World War II. And in today's world, the same economists and business leaders love Communist China. The parallels do not stop there.

Ultimately, the integration of western businesses with communist China's leadership has created a proto-fascist dynamic which will more than likely lead to inflame future political tensions as self-interested states seek to assert themselves. O f course they will say no one saw it coming just as they said of the financial crisis in 2008, World War II, the Great Depression, the Internet bubble collapse, the economic stagnation of the 1970s, the financial crisis of the late 1980s and every other major economic or geopolitical event in the twentieth century.

Anyone who really understands what started World War's I and II realizes it was economics and the state, or maybe we should say state-based capitalism or state-based economies which was the underlying cause of both wars. That took the form of colonialism or fascism or whatever ism tickles your fancy. All of Europe practiced it as did Japan. Hundreds of millions were left to deal with the consequences. And that was often with their lives.

Now tell me, what is the most prevalent economic model around the world today? Well, I'm glad you asked. That would be state-based capitalism, a favorite of Wall Street. Actually Wall Street has created state-based capitalism in the United States so make sure you thank them not just for the tens of millions of unemployed in this country or our massive bailouts that they personally pocketed but for future events associated with this dynamic.

And what is a primary outcome of state-based capitalism or state-based economics? I do believe we would call that the manipulation or subversion of the rule of law or the creation of laws serving the state at the expense of individuals or democracy. And what happens when the rule of law is manipulated or subverted? It provides cover for the most radical elements in society who see injustice as an opening to express their radical dissenting views. (Dissent based on reason is the best gift a citizen can give democracy. Dissent based on hatred, intolerance, bigotry and other elements of the radical's repertoire are simply a manifestation of evil. Of the ego.) And what happens when cover is provided for the most radical elements of society? I do believe we see vigilantism, intolerance, hatred, bigotry, an attempt to impress their often disturbing will upon society and other unpleasantries. All of this is driven in large part by lack of economic opportunity and corruption which is an outcome to state-based capitalism or state-based economics.

In other words, in a statist view of economics, the state primarily determines who successfully participates in economic opportunity. And as George Carlin would say, "you aren't it.". If we apply Newton's Third Law, we have an equal but opposite reaction to the exertion of economic control by the state. That can manifest itself in many forms, some constructive and some not. We often see some attempt by the mob to radicalize society and-or radicalize the state in an attempt to subvert it to reflect their ideals of self-interested vigilantism, intolerance and hatred. Of course, endlessly manipulative power-seeking politicians are more than happy to oblige. While these dynamics will take years to fully bloom, do you see the seeds of any of this developing in the world today? You may not have to look far. I can see it in almost every major economy in the world today. Open your eyes. For when it is in full bloom, it is too late.

What have we said for years was our major concern with China? That their economic crisis will eventually lead to political unrest. And that a useful target of blame will be an external enemy. That is, the United States. But, in fact, maybe it will be its long time nemesis, Japan that tips Asia into volatility. The state, often in conjunction with radical elements, always finds it useful as a control point to blame an external enemy in order to gain or maintain control in times of unrest.

So what is the impetus of this post? It is this. Even though on the surface this seems like a minor event, I would say we might look back years from now and realize this was the official kickoff of an upcoming war cycle. Speak of which, why is China making yen purchases in the foreign exchange market? Is this some attempt at economic warfare? ie, Driving Japan's rising yen problem?

The party is only starting unless the people of the world stop it. Globalization in the form we see today will always lead to this dynamic. As we have been uniquely saying since this crisis first unfolded two years ago, globalization is dead. Now we simply wait for political idiots to spend other people's money and have happy-talk G20 meetings in an attempt to keep it going. They will fail because this economic model guarantees it. The first seeds of the war cycle are germinating. Are you reading it in the mainstream media?

The ridiculous remarks of the Great Recession being past us are lunacy fed to us by the crooked self-interests of the status quo. If the state has its way, this party is going to last years. Maybe decades. The party is just getting started. And as long as politicians are able to give endless supply of other people's money to their corrupt corporate donors and banksters, the kickoff phase of the party is going to continue. Where is our government?

It's laughable to look back today to Hank Paulson's remarks when he was Treasury Secretary before the collapse in 2008. Of his remarks of how he had never before witnessed such unprecedented prosperity around the world in his life time. And how bullish he was on the global economy. Thanks for that insight Tater. It was completely brilliant. You picked the exact top of economic prosperity around the world for decades to come. And all of Wall Street, the economics community and politicians were in complete agreement. Bureaucrats should not be making so many substantial decisions about our personal economic opportunity. Because now the outcome will be incredible volatility or worse.

We desperately need a return of democracy. Of reason. Of the rule of law.
posted by TimingLogic at 5:21 AM

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home