Wednesday, March 11, 2020

Any Global Public Health Crisis Will Almost Certainly Hit The U.S. Especially Hard. Has The U.S. Still Only Tested 6,500 People As Reported Yesterday?

Update March 11th afternoon update.
I know this isn't a laughing matter but I couldn't help but post Trump's endless ignorance and inaccurate, unscientific predictions on this topic.  You don't need to be a member of Twitter to watch the below link to the Daily Show.  While trend analysis isn't science, if we continue to follow trend, the U.S. will have about more than 20,000 confirmed cases by the end of March.  Also, while this is simply a quick, anecdotal analysis, if I look at the S&P 500, I would anticipate we have dropped half way to any future price support level.  In other words, the decline will find some level of support for at least a pause when it hits a 40% decline.  All bets are off with any flash crashes.  Trump is speaking to the nation tonight and while I have little confidence in Trump, our society, our government or our health care system's ability to respond with a high level of competence per the original post, I am hoping he surprises me and at least redeems himself from the endless stupidity in the Daily Show's compendium.

The Daily Show's compendium of Trump coronavirus idiocy.

Update March 11th after Trump;s speech.
Trump's speech was a complete disaster with no specifics. I go back to my March 4th post on building out a public policy plan for a public health crisis.  We should already have a generalized plan that can be tailored to this crisis.  It should already have been tested with state, local, federal and private stakeholders. Ok, we don't have that plan.  That's not Trump's fault even though it does seem he's muzzling public policy comments, making meetings confidential and seemingly continuing to view any validation that this is real as a personal political attack. This creates angst and is not how you manage a crisis or lead.

WTF is the public policy plan for those who have little to no insurance? Where are the f#cking test kits?  Who sprcifically is responsible for what public policies?   Why can't be test people in temporary setups that accept walk-ins in every state?  It appears the number of people who need medical care is projected to be 20-30% according to a leading virology scientist who is working with Gilead on their attempted vaccine.  We can quibble about the mortality rate but it doesn't matter.  Korea's low mortality rate is likely driven by a whole host of factors that are unique to Korea such as they have a national health care system and were prepared.  The Korean immune system is likely substantially different that ours.  They don't deal with morbid obesity or Twinkie and Coke diets.  The list of social differences is enormous.  That doesn't even take into consideration if it was a different strain.

Trump is telling us that young people will be okay.  That's a f#cking irresponsible and nonscientific statement about a virus we know little about.  Or, about how it may act in the future.  Will the virus mutate?  China has stated there are two strains and one is much more virulent.  Will there be more?  He needs to be muzzled and leave public statements about the virus to scientists.

The United States should be proactively executing on a specific plan right now to handle one million (arbitrary) people who need medical care. Right. Now. They shouldn't go to hospitals. There aren't enough beds. We don't want to infect an entire hospital staff or other patients.  What is the plan?  What facilities will we use to treat people?  What medical equipment do we need?  Who will staff those facilities?  Do we need to create make-shift beds?  There's no plan across an entire host of issues.

My vote?  The simplest answer is to get out of the way and bring in the Army Corps of Engineers to develop an executable plan across all medical, social, economic, public policy and logistical issues.  And, have them manage and drive the plans across specific agencies, states, communities, private health care providers, the CDC and the like to ensure we are executing on that plan.  Engineers are the world's practical solution builders/scientists.  The Corps of Engineers isn't the expert.  They work with the experts and stakeholders across all of the impacted areas to develop an executable approach signed off on by the experts.  Then work with the experts and stakeholders to ensure they are accountable, know what they need to have done and when, raise their hands if they run into road blocks or the minute they realize their dates are slipping so solutions to those issues can be found, have the resources needed to complete their efforts and manage the overall logistics.  This is not that hard.  But it is for people who don't know how to make anything.  That includes making a plan.  Bring me in and I'll do it. (A joke. Although I certainly could do better than a cluster f#ck of politicians.)  For God's sake, do something.  We are not prepared for this.  Not even close.

It's imperative the American people are communicated to about any plan on a regular (possibly daily) basis by a person or people they can trust.  Aka not a politician.  It might be 15 minutes but that is simple crisis management and will help alleviate any panic because people aren't being told what's going on.  Trump Tweeting about nonspecifics and how great our healthcare system is is counterproductive.  It's not great.  It's a disaster and many of the people at the highest risk appreciate that.  Fess up and be honest about what we need to do. And, bring experts in who know what they are doing.  That includes an overarching organization or personnel who know how to stand up an operation.  Because that's what this is.  That's what the Army Corps of Engineers does for a living. 

Original post

I'm not a Trump fan. But I also know that Russiagate and other attempts from Democrats to smear him are more political propaganda than anything.  I've never seen such outward universal deceit as I've seen with the Democratic Party towards Trump.  Well, other than Trump's endless lying.  In fact, I would be very surprised if someone on the Democratic side, the CIA or someone who was handled by either-or doesn't go to prison regarding Russiagate.  It's the same smears that the Republican and Democrat establishment have targeted to Bernie Sanders. And, we see the Russiagate label being attached to him as well. The outward endless lies without facts are nothing more than establishment tactics to manufacture consent (propaganda), maintain control over society and keep the corporate money flowing into party coffers.  Trump now gets a pass with the rise of Bernie Sanders.  The Democratic Party establishment is more worried about Sanders blowing up their corporate-funded racket than they are worried about losing to Trump this fall.  It's imperative they stop Sanders or the corporate money train will disappear for the Democratic Party.  Maybe for both parties, which is why the corporate wing of the Republican Party is finding common ground with Democrats in their efforts. So much for that immediate threat of Trump that required his immediate impeachment from office.  All of it is pathological political maneuvering.

You know the system is in its final stages when so many lies without literally any facts are thrown into the public domain to protect the establishment.  That is a bipartisan statement.  Equal opportunity crooks.  The evil is there for everyone to see.  How do I know that?  Because their fangs are out.  There's no pretense hiding their vile and Godless behavior anymore.

The reason for that introduction is the baseline for this post. Now, Trump is not the only issue but his involvement is a major roadblock to dealing with this pandemic.  And, let's be frank. It fits the definition of a pandemic.  That doesn't mean every single person is going to die.  It means the virus is spreading geographically. It's now on every continent.  What's next?

Trump recently informed us that his team is very well prepared at the link behind this text.  And, that he's got the same genes as his "super genius" uncle who taught electrical engineering at MIT. And, he gets all of this coronavirus stuff. And, the doctors are the CDC are very impressed by his intellectual capability.  What the f#ck?  This is a Saturday Night Live skit, right?  This is a joke and Trump is going to say just kidding any moment?  Are we back to the concept of birthright privilege under the argument that royalty has superior genes granted to them by God?  I guess maybe I should go stand beside Tom Brady.  I might inherit some of his football ability through proximity.  Better yet, let me go down to the CDC.  Being in proximity to their researchers, I'll come up with a cure for all illness in a matter of weeks.

We probably never should have created an executive branch in this country.  It is a remnant of monarchy and we saw its impact almost immediately when George Washington was called excellency and other titles of lordship.  The Presidency in this nation has morphed into emperor.  And, every corporate capitalist empire needs an emperor.  Really, the President should only be relevant in times of war as the commander-in-chief.  But we worship the position as royalty and grant incredible entitlement to the position.  We cheer the position when he's on our "team" and curse him when he is not.  That's a problem for democracy.  If the United States survives, that's probably one topic for a potential do-over with an updated constitution; something Jefferson advocated every few decades.

On that note, Trump's aforementioned omniscience has led him to whine that the Democrats are turning a small virus outbreak into a crisis so he loses the election or so the economy tanks under his watch.  I literally haven't watched TV news in decades but saw some clips of Sean Hannity's show on Fox and my jaw hit the floor in his attempt to politicize the entire coronavirus outbreak concerns.  He even brought on a doctor (who is not an infectious disease or public policy expert and thus is as ignorant as everyone else giving uninformed opinions.)  to defend his position that this isn't any worse than the flu for most.  That is ignorant and ill-informed on so many levels that he would get torched by an infectious disease or virus scientist.  I suspect he's panicked that Trump is going to be blamed. Rumor is they talk daily.  But, there's a reason Hannity makes $40 million a year to do nothing but talk.  Hannity is one of the original leaders in modern identity politics along with Limbaugh and Beck.  That brainwashing creates a large mass of followers from which to make enormous amounts of money.  Class and hierarchy are necessary for identity politics to even exist. That's why it has now become so popular on the left.  Self-proclaiming you are a leader of a class of people in a money-driven culture creates massive power and wealth concentration for the chosen few.

Anyhow, back to the topic at hand.  I hate to break it to Trump or his fellow political thugs but financial markets don't operate based on what CNN, Fox News or Nancy Pelosi have to say.  The financial market meltdowns are because the world is facing a real issue with real consequences.  It has been made magnitudes worse because corporate capitalism and the bought-and-paid-for US government have offshored our democratic economic determinism and in the process built a wildly unstable global economic system with so many direct ties into Communist China and nearly every other nation on earth. This unnatural economic system is wildly exposed to massive shocks in any crisis.  And, U.S. empire needs its emperor to manage those shocks.  The problem is the emperor has no clothes. (From a policy standpoint, it's arguable that Trump is a better President than Obama, Bush or Clinton. Personally, if I were king for a day, I'd put all three in prison for major crimes against humanity and against America.  But, Trump's personal behavior also qualifies him as one of the world's great idiots.)

The reason I'm putting up this post is that I'm confident if this virus hits very hard around the world in the next year or two, the U.S. will be one of the hardest hit regardless of what politicians say. And, I want to highlight below many of the dystopian dynamics that will likely fuel a U.S. crisis.  This virus is already a pandemic.  Pandemic doesn't mean everyone dies like the black plague.  In fact, many very deadly infectious diseases can burn themselves out if people die too quickly or if they are symptomatic before they are infectious to others.  This virus is on every continent and continuing to spread.

We have no idea how bad the situation is in the U.S. but the rate of spread isn't really that hard to calculate if you know a few factors.  The CDC's response has been a mess to put in mildly.  But, that's representative of the federal government's overall response that is also a mess.  It appears states and communities are starting to do their own testing rather than wait on the CDC.  This should have been the approach from the very beginning.   A sign of a complete lack of vetted and tested public policy for just such a public crisis situation.

One must appreciate that the main reason for such a disastrous response in the U.S. is because the public health plans are not there.  We have the Health and Human Services Secretary, a former corporate lobbyist, telling us that this is what we do.  That infectious disease control is our core competency as a society.  Oh, really?  How many infectious disease crises did you manage while "legally" bribing our government for your corporate masters?  (Trump has hired well more than 200 corporate lobbyists.  His administration has become the swamp.  He's a faux populist.)

Dynamics that will likely contribute to U.S. responsiveness to any substantial pandemic.


  1. The United States has little to no functioning social fabric to respond to a national crisis.
    1. The United States is one of the world's most dysfunctional societies. I wouldn't even classify it as a society so much as a corporate colonization.  Think of the company towns that existed.  You worked for the company. You lived in conpany housing. You shopped at the company store.  And, if you were lucky, you were able to see a company doctor.  You know, like the Chinese Apple workers who live in barbed wire compounds.  That is still the U.S. but we've become completely assimilated into the system so we don't generally see it from the outside looking in.  If you want to see the present and future, you simply need to look at the past. Corporations colonize a geography (before states) or second and third world countries and determine what type of government there will be. (A non-functioning one that is easily bought.)   In many regards, we are that third world country.  
    2. We have no idea how to organize (cooperate) anymore. Unions have been busted and as a result we don't have any social fabric or communities other than dystopian corporate communities. The busting of unions had a very profound impact on society far beyond anything discussed. They allowed corporations to start dismantling real communities and destroying the social fabric that tied those communities together. Today corporate minions either either live in contrived suburbs or gentrified urban areas where all like-minded (brainwashed) minions live. Or, people live in ghettos with corporate capitalism's throwaways.  Some rural areas still have somewhat of a community remaining but they are dying for the same reasons.  Most have no funds and limited facilities to deal with exploding public health crises and drug epidemics.  If we can't deal with drug addiction, what makes anyone think we can deal with a pandemic? With a complete lack of community, there is no social fabric remaining to organize a response to a crisis.  
  2. Politicians in the United States are wildly unqualified for any real leadership or crisis management.  That most definitely includes the corporate appointees of the Trump administration.
    1. Our government is a disaster. Because our government, be it state or federal, is so corrupted by corporate money, we don't have public servants who represent the common good.  Instead, the personality type attracted to politics in this nation is pathological.  That is generally someone who can be manipulated, is not a critical thinker, has amorphous ethical standards, has no ethical purpose to change anything, will stomp on the face of their opponent and has no expertise other than being likable.(electable)  It's no surprise these are the same qualities of public corporation leaders.  Nor is it surprising that those same corporations are pathologically political as is our government.  (That's a real thing.)  This is the type of persona required to be a toady for corporate lobbyists and corporate power.  
    2. Our political class is incredibly incompetent at doing anything other than talking and kissing babies. They certainly are not qualified to manage crises or manage our country.  We see this with the existential crises facing our society.  We've seen that in spades in relatively small (compared to a national crisis) natural disasters such as the hurricanes in New Orleans or Puerto Rico. In the New Orleans crisis, which exposed what a complete and abject failure FEMA was.  FEMA was run by a political idiot appointed by another political idiot, George Bush. They couldn't effectively do anything other than hand out bottled water.  The horrors that the people of New Orleans went through were what you'd see in a rotten-to-the-core third world country.  The people of New Orleans were dehumanized during that crisis. It literally made my heart hurt to witness that.  That is not an isolated incident. It's native to the corporate state. As a general rule, qualified, ethical people do not go into politics for a reason. That is substantially because the two registered corporations that control our politics, the Republican and Democratic Parties, are controlled by corporate capitalism's briberies.  To be considered for that role, you have to be of low moral standing with no true courage to do what is ethically right.  Do some less than pathological people slip through the cracks and get elected?  Sure.  But it's the exception and most are run out of politics, quit in disgust or become what they got into politics to replace.  The ego or self is the consummate deceiver.  (Although there currently is a broadening grass roots, populist movement to change that.)
  3. Public resources, especially at the federal level, have become pathologized and are aligned to support corporations rather than democratic public policy and hence public crises.  
    1. The entire world had test kits available while we were napping. Germany, Korea and other public health officials are able to test people on the street or you can drive up and they'll test you.  Italy suspended mortgages to provide relief to its citizens.  More solutions to help global citizens will likely come.  Contrarily, we are doing shit because we don't have a public policy plan.  Well, we are creating one on the fly that consists of  contemplating tax cuts, which will not work.  We have tens of millions of people who don't have jobs or don't make enough to get any substantial relief from a tax cut.  And, then you have the demand issue.  Do Trump cabinet members think that tax cuts will spur people to go out to eat, to shop for cars or to a sporting event when the CDC and experts are encouraging social distancing?  And, this isn't even taking into consideration the potential layoffs in the millions.  What are the public policies for the common good to help society respond and recover?  They don't exist and the half wits in Washington can't think without their corporate lobbyists telling them what to do.  This won't get better.
    2. At some point, if a vaccine is developed, and I'm dubious because of mutations and genetic variation , then we'll f#ck around for weeks or months trying to figure out who's paying for it and how we build out the infrastructure we don't have and resources to administer it.   If the virus is around that long, those weeks could mean hundreds of thousands or even millions more will be infected.  The point is while the Trump administration considers more corporatized neoliberal policy decisions that don't support all of our citizens or public policy supporting our citizens, the rest of the world is acting.   I see no reason for hope this will improve.  (As a side note, it appears China is testing a Cuban drug for effectiveness at treating the virus.  But, we have a ban on anything related to Cuba because our politicians are demagogues who pander to hypocritical political rhetoric. Why is it okay to trade with China, a country that may be the most outwardly controlled in the world,  A country that has butchered or imprisoned massive numbers of people. But, it's not possible to trade with Cuba?  Would Cuba's drug help the US? )  
  4. This level of corruption in this nation has perpetuated a level of distrust and even hatred of the US government by a large amount of the population.  This reinforces the effort of  corporations and Wall Street who wish to continue to slash government spending for democracy and transfer more of those government handouts to corporations.  It's easy to get cuts approved, even if they are for beneficial programs, if a large percentage of the population distrusts the government.  This has an impact of no will for citizens to spend on the appropriate level of public policy readiness for any type of crisis or infectious outbreak infrastructure.  Not when the outbreak happens but when there is no outbreak so that we are prepared. 
  5. The American myth of rugged individualism has created a society-less society.
    1. From the moment we are born, we are inculcated with endless propaganda of competition and associated individualism rather than love, connection and community. This individualism is glorified by class and hierarchy. It indoctrinates and normalizes  the forced march competition to survive under corporate capitalism. It also divides society.  This myth of individualism is required to justify having obscene wealth when most people don't have a pot to piss in.  "I" earned it.  It's mine. 
    2. I've studied complex systems my whole life. In another life, I designed them. For many years I have applied those dynamics to sociology and economics.  In the field of social complex systems, it is generally accepted that those who exhibit this high level of  individualism have an inability to cooperate with others and that these people will be the first to die in any substantial collapse that threatens human life.  While this isn't a moment that threatens all of society with death, this dynamic does come into play.  I've got mine and to hell with you comes into play daily in this nation.  This dynamic describes the economic elites in this nation and the useless idiots who follow their ideology.  It's important to understand that our society has generally been built on this precept.  This can play a dangerous a role in any crisis from hoarding of food and supplies that create shortages to the lack of ability to organize (cooperate) society for the common good.  We already see this in that there is no outrage within the establishment in any of the social injustices whether that is the New Orleans hurricane response, the extreme poverty or that people die daily in this country for lack of access to medical care.   They killed the last person who was outraged to the point of organizing society for change.  His name was Martin Luther King.  
  6. The corporate state's social control and brainwashing has created a culture of learned helplessness.
    1. Need I say anymore?  We are taught what to think rather than how to think. The concept of free public education in the areas of study that are required for people to become good citizens of democracy that was so crucial to ancient Greeks is dead.  Instead, we are taught the minimum skills necessary for corporate success.  And, critical thinking skills needed for democracy to flourish? Your masters will stop that at any cost.  If we were an educated society, would we accept living in a corporate state dystopia with endless cruelties and emnity?  
    2. Because we don't make things anymore, we don't know how to do anything that requires effort. One outcome of this is that we have turned men of every color and race into hollow shells of their authentic self.  I am empathetic to the struggle of all people and gender who are exploited in this system.  But, there's something extremely disastrous about a society where men have been marginalized and in many cases dehumanized.  While I am a white male and see how this dynamic has so impacted the lives of other white men, I am most disturbed by how this system goes even farther and oftentimes dehumanizes men of color.  How many people in this country have been marginalized?  Yes, definitely women too. (This is class violence and class struggle in an institutionalized system of hierarchy regardless of race and gender.)  But in a national or international crisis, how will we respond with countless tens of millions of marginalized men not participating in society?  Yes, women too.  But as it pertains to crisis, men have always been first-responders in society and there is a reason for that.  Whether it is the disaster at Chernobyl or thwarting Nazi Germany or dealing with a national crisis.  Men do the shit jobs to protect society and there is every reason to consider this an innate male virtue.  Regardless of the political narrative, most women understand and appreciate men for their valor and manly virtues.  That's not politically-correct in many identity politics circles but it's also the truth.  In fact, there is ample evidence this is a major reason why our response to crises is so pathetic.  Community is lost. Men participating as leaders has been lost in so many communities.  
  7. A private for-profit healthcare system is organized for the profit motive rather than serve society or be prepared for a public health policy response.  The U.S. sickcare system kills and bankrupts millions as a normal course of action.  What do you think it will do in a national public health crisis?  This topic has been discussed in detail over the last handful of posts.  No point in rehashing it.  Serving the common good is not consistent with corporate capitalism's primary intent of maximizing profits.  This is the main reason why the government entered the healthcare system in the first place.  Can you imagine being 80 years old, dealing with a $10,000 annual medical premium, a $10,000 deductible and copays?  And fighting to get procedures covered as people do everyday under our corporate-controlled healthcare system?  Our elderly would be in perpetual crisis.  In fact, they were before Medicare.   That is the reason liberal leaders stepped in to provide Medicare after attempting to force private providers to provide healthcare to the elderly and poor.  It is becoming manifestly obvious with each passing day that the developed world's only private healthcare system is a f#cking disaster in the making with this coronavirus whether that is lack of supplies, beds and facilities or a lack of public policy that corporations simply don't have because that would cost money and take away from shareholder value.   
  8. The U.S. media is rotten to the core and it's leaders and broadcasters are deplorable people with no ability to consistently and accurately inform and help guide the American people.  That's pretty self-explanatory.  The same qualities that define American politicians cited above are the same qualities that define most American broadcasters and journalists.  Because the role is the same.  To be able to attract viewers and to be of a low moral constitution so they will do the bidding of their corporate masters.  (There are some fantastic journalists out there although most have migrated to secondary or third tier news services.)
When I was typing this, a thought that describes all of this came to mind.  It's from one of Hemingway's books- 

“If people bring so much courage to this world the world has to kill them to break them, so of course it kills them. The world breaks everyone and afterward many are strong at the broken places. But those that will not break it kills. It kills the very good and the very gentle and the very brave impartially. If you are none of these you can be sure it will kill you too but there will be no special hurry.”

This defines the cruelty of our pathological societyAnd, it sums up everything I typed above into a few sentences.  The people who rise to the top of hierarchical institutions such as politics and corporations will eventually be comprised of society's weakest and most vile people.  They have an intent of controlling other people and the world around them to ameliorate their own inner demons.  The intent of controlling others is evil manifested.  They have little to no connection to their highest good or their own Divinity so they have little to no courage.  True courage is Divine.  If they did, the cruelty in society we see today would be eradicated in a moment's notice.  

If there is one thing I understand beyond equivocation, it's that those driven by the self or ego fear and hate anyone with courage.   Which is the primary reason why they need to marginalize and dehumanize those in society they exploit.  Modern society is a Godless cult of the self.

posted by TimingLogic at 8:45 AM