Thursday, February 27, 2020

The Trumpty Dumpty Economy's Supposed Blue Collar Boom Plus Other Unicorns And Children's Fairy Tales

Let me first provide a link based on the last past I put up on public health policy.  My microbiologist friend provided this to me.  Do your own diligence but it appears Trump may have dismantled the entire pandemic response infrastructure.  Should this be a surprise?  Trump is dismantling public policy infrastructure and associated regulations across the entire federal government.  And, he's doing in in the darkness rather than allowing democracy to discuss these efforts.  Is there unnecessary red tape?  Certainly. Is everything he's dismantling red tape, I know for a fact, he's cutting into the muscle and dismantling necessary regulations.

Donald Trump has recently bragged about the blue collar economic boom he has created.  I've learned to appreciate Trump's experience as a marketeer.  Or, as I wrote right after his election, he is truly P.T. Barnum.  Barnum was a con man whose life follows many similarities to Trump.  They even wrote books with similar titles.  (The Art of Money Getting; Barnum. The Art of the Deal; Trump.)  Both are wildly insecure and narcissistic.  Now, I give Trump a lot of credit for raising awareness on working-class issues.  And, in my estimation, a fact-based look at his policies are no more harmful to the American working class than Obama.  In some cases, they helped working class people where Obama was bent on creating even more corrupt control systems to continue to destroy the American middle class.  But Trump has also wildly misrepresented and outright lied about countless accomplishments.

While Trump has acknowledged and even attempted minor changes to working-class or populist American issues, in actuality, his policies are completely focused on Reagan's neoliberal trickle-down economics.  Neoliberal policies that we've now lived under for the last 40 years of political control by corporations and American establishment elites who have stolen almost everything from democracy and ordinary people, regardless of whether blue or white collar.  Stolen their freedoms, their wealth, their jobs, their self-determinism, their government and on and on.  Trump's renegotiating of criminal trade deals with China and Mexico are con-artist lies.  There will never be a blue collar boom under the existing neoliberal economic policies.  Or, as I noted immediately after the 2008 crisis when Obama declared a recovery, there will never be a recovery.  And, there hasn't been as you'll read below.

I don't really get into a lot of economic or financial market analytics or specifics on here anymore.  As I wrote handful of years ago, I shut down my trading systems and access to my data sources.  And, will never buy another financial instrument because of the massive corruption that rigs our systems.  But let me pull out a few data points to show how precarious the American economy truly is.  While all of this data is generally available, you won't find it in the right wing (Wall Street/Corporations) or left wing media.  Why?  Because telling the truth in times of deceit is a revolutionary act.  And, the establishment wants to keep us brainwashed.

Actually, I'll put up a follow-on post to show you how little of the American economy is actually left.  But for now, let's dig in. Remember, all of these issues below were in play before the coronavirus. So, regardless of whether Trump is responsible for these dynamics, he has taken credit for them.  That said, the coronavirus could very well impact supply chains across all outsourced industries thanks to our corporate masters.  That dynamic was foretold long ago and will eventually happen regardless of what develops with this current public health issue.  Curiously, did you ever get to vote on outsourcing upwards of 100 million+ wealth-creating jobs over the last 50 or so years?  Democracy and corporate capitalism don't mix.  And, there is no way for democracy to ever withstand the onslaught of capitalism's evils.  That is why democracy in this nation is dead.  But, as noted more than a dozen years ago on here, the world's citizens are on the march and we are experiencing a new Age of Enlightenment.  

Anyway, given Trump wishes to take full responsibility for the "boom" we are experiencing, there are no excuses as to why these economic dynamics exist.  Just lies coming out of Trump.  And lies coming out of every Congress and President for the last half century or more who supported the policies that got us here.  In other words, we created this mess.  We have created the world in which we live, and now we must take responsibility for it.

When you read through this, just remember that we have the most stimulated economy in history.  That includes inside and outside of the U.S.  Globally, what?  A hundred trillion dollars in stimulus profligacy?  More?  Additionally, we have literally more than half of a quadrillion dollars in synthetic Wall Street instruments that itself creates hundreds to thousands of times "normal" liquidity.  (Which failed in 2008 and were never reformed.)  We have unprecedented tax cuts for corporations and the rich courtesy of Trump, Democrats and Republicans.  (Don't believe Democrats are really any different than Republicans.  They carp at each other in front of the camera while they continue to work together to pass crooked and corrupt legislation.)  And, we have the highest non-crisis federal spending in history thanks to Trump, Democrats and Republicans.  Money is coming out of our ears and creating massive distortions everywhere.  Remember, money and wealth are two separate things. As you read below, you'll realize how dire the situation is.  And, how all of this money is papering over the most severe corporate state corruption in our history.  
  • US economic productivity under Trump is negative 1%. That's right. That's according to the government data as is everything below that is reported by the government, so no conspiracy nonsense.  Just facts.  Do you appreciate what negative productivity means for monetary velocity in the economy?  That means the economy is essentially chomping through money faster than the Federal Reserve and Donald Trump can spend it, create it or give tax cuts to the most wealthy corporations and individuals in society.  After record profits, record tax cuts for corporations, record money printing by the Federal Reserve and record liquidity created by Wall Street's synthetic instruments, this is where the economy is?  That is negative productivity.  That should be disconcerting to say the least because where would it be without these unprecedented socialist and welfare bailouts for corporations and the most wealthy in our nation?  I'll tell you.  Collapsed. The ruling elites and corporations are responsible for this entire mess.
  • Annual GDP has not printed 3% since the 2008 collapse.  In fact, GDP per capita under Trump is 1%.  That's why we have the highest percentage rate of immigrants in this country in ages.  This isn't a Trump issue nor is an issue created by innocent immigrants but he owns how well the economy is so he owns this.  I haven't looked recently but it wouldn't surprise me that immigrant population ratios are the highest rate in a century or more.  We have about 50 million immigrants in this nation today.  With per capita GDP printing at 1% and productivity at negative 1%, what is the only way you can guarantee economic growth?  It's simple math.  We need more "capita" in the per capita. In other words, we need more people. Tens of millions of more immigrants.  Right now!  Trump is either going to let the economy crash by cutting off immigration, or he's going to continue to demagogue and tell us endless lies while he secretly lets hoards of immigrants into this country. An act which will continue to erode wages, income and productivity while exploding our debts associated with social safety nets.  Don't kid yourself.  Immigration in this nation has always been to fill slave labor jobs for corporate capitalism.  Now, even though we don't actually manufacture much of anything other than weapons, money and Burger King Whoppers, we still need a growing population to buy more TV sets, fill the apartment and housing bubble and consume endless corporate services and output.  The alternative is corporate capitalism will collapse.  The porous border isn't because liberals have a bleeding heart or because they want to tank our social services as many right wingers describe.  The main reason we have porous borders because if the economy doesn't grow, corporate capitalism implodes.  Neoliberal Republican (and now Neoliberal Democrat) policy is why we have porous borders.  We need more corporate slaves to keep the Ponzi scheme going.  In other words, to keep bailing out corporations.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised jobs growth down by huge numbers under Trump.  No surprise that those didn't hit the media headlines.  In one announcement, they cut their previously announced jobs growth by more than 500,000 jobs.  The giddiness of Trump's corporate tax cuts never materialized with jobs growth.   (This is my surprised face.)  Trickle down economics is a scam created by our masters to continue to enrich themselves through their endless socialist policies that benefit themselves.  Anyone who thinks socialism is something to fear in this nation needs to open their eyes.  Socialism for corporations and the rich are necessary to prop up corporate capitalism.  Otherwise, it would have imploded long ago.  Corporations and elites love socialism.  As MLK said, rugged free market capitalism for you poor slobs, socialism for corporations and the rich.  (Paraphrasing)
  • Trump's bloviating about unemployment, especially in the black community, is a massive lie.  The real unemployment rate as calculated 20 years ago is nearly 10%.  Black unemployment even higher.  If you really want to have a serious conversation, why is the male job participation rate down from 98% half a century ago to 64%?  And, what is the true unemployment and underemployment rate?  Is it 25 or 30%? 50%?   It sure as hell isn't anywhere near what Trump lies about. It certainly feels like unemployment and underemployment are at crisis levels if you get out of the establishment bubble into these third world communities that are everywhere in this nation.  If you consider study after study that 40-60% of Americans cannot absorb an unexpected hit to their expenses of $500 or $1000 dollars and the massive renter capitalism consumer debt that has taken the place of wage growth, another corporate socialist bailout, there is no doubt that half of the country or more leads a life of substantial economic insecurity and even outright despair.
  • Haver Analytics captures published job openings in the U.S.  In the last three months, published job openings have fallen by more than any time in history. (Of this data stream.)
  • Corporate profits peaked 5 years ago in the U.S.  That's right. Before Trump was elected.  (With the fortune of hindsight, I wrote on here five years ago that the peak in the market was likely in.  But that we could have one more powerful upward.)  Never before in history has the stock market been at all-time highs with corporate profits peaking 5 years earlier.  This is substantially because of the massive Federal Reserve liquidity bubble flowing into essentially two aspects of the economy.  One, real estate and two, paper assets, thus creating an even more massive financial bubble.  This dynamic is because capitalism is already in collapse and as noted on here more than a decade ago, there is no demand for capital and that we are in the midst of a depression that has been papered over by massive government and corporate corruption.  Again, more Trump lies.  All of his neoliberal policy scams and money handed to the rich couldn't raise corporate profits beyond what they were before he was elected.  Bad news because we can't give giving socialist handouts to corporations forever.  What will happen when that Ponzi scheme dries up?  Or, are we going to make the corporate tax rate zero to give them even greater bailouts?
  • Corporate profits are up 600% in the last 30 years.  (Actually 25 years since they peaked under Obama. Long time readers know how much disdain I have for Obama so this certainly isn't any Democratic cheerleading. Just facts.)  The statistical bounds of this profit bubble make it a near impossibility that this will ever happen again.  Ever.  And, it has never happened before.  Ever.  Did the minimum wage go up 600%?  Did working-class wages go up 600%?  That's a joke.  Even though corporations are living under the most distorted profit bubble in history, Donald Trump passed a multi-trillion dollar tax break for corporations and the most wealthy in our nation.  The biggest profit bubble in history wasn't enough for Trump.  He thought his aristocratic cronies should get more.  More trickle down economics for corporations and the wildly rich.  The working class got a piddly amount of this tax cut.  What should be disconcerting to you is that with this massive tax cut, and after Federal Reserve money printing in the trillions of dollars, corporate profits could not reach the profits of five years ago. What does that tell you?  That you should be scared shitless because corporations with all of the socialism that their corrupt bribing of our government can muster have only one way to go with profits.  And, that means asset values will soon follow.  
  • Let's talk about blue collar booms according to Trump.  Wages have barely budged under Trump.  Manufacturing outside of making bombs is in contraction and  layoffs are happening. Plus, the hourly workweek for manufacturing is at the lowest level in 12 years.  What exactly are those blue collar workers doing where their personal lives are booming?  Working at Wal-mart and McDonald's?   Oh, that's right.  Feeding the real estate bubble so we can add another 50 million immigrants for more corporate bailouts. (See above.)
  • Trump's budget forecasts use 3% GDP growth to forecast its spending and government social services cuts.  That includes Social Security and Medicare.  If the economy hasn't printed 3% in more than a decade, he's either lying or planning to open the flood gates to immigration or both.  Both will tank wages and social programs because Trump's minimum wage is still about $7 an hour.
  • All of this will drive an even larger debt bubble in this nation because under corporate capitalism, wages never equal the cost of goods.  So, under corporate capitalism, society must take on ever larger amounts of debt peonage to survive.  We already have such a massive debt burden that it'll never be paid back.  That's corporations, communities, states, federal government and whatnot.  Once again, more socialism for corporations. Without it, corporate capitalism is unsustainable and will implode.
  • Trump's 2020 budget is just about $1 trillion higher than Obama's last budget. Republicans love big government.  Just so long as it goes to corporations and the rich.  That's $7,700 dollars per family more than under Obama.  It's been rising like a rocket since Trump took office. Does this surprise you? This is a man who has declared bankruptcy seven times.  Think about that. What government services are costing us $7,700 more per family in just three years? (By the way, Trump's budgets call for cuts in Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security.  During his campaign he said that would never happen.  Another of his endless lies.
  • Total military spending if you include hidden war state expenses other departments such as the NRC and State Department, and you include military aid and veterans expenses will easily surpass $1 trillion dollars this year.  That's a rate of $30,000 for every American family under one term of Trump.  Given the labor participation rate, that means it's most like $40-50,000 per household.  Are you going to pay that back?  Did you sign up for that?  One of the few areas booming in the economy is the war state and military weapons spending.  Weapons spending is skyrocketing according to government data.  In fact, without weapons manufacturing, the country's manufacturing base is in deep contraction.  (Markit just released manufacturing numbers for the U.S. and they are the lowest in 76 months.)
  • It has been a year since I have looked up this data but the United States now accounts for about 7% of all high-technology exports today.  China is about 30%.  40 years ago it was drastically different with the U.S. dominating global technology exports and China a backwater shithole of communism.  Now we sell the world potato pancakes and China sells telecommunications, semiconductor and computer gear.  Now some of those statistics may be American corporations exploiting China's slave labor after sending all of our jobs overseas but it points to the blue collar boom being a f*cking sham.   
  • Not only does the Federal Reserve still have all of the toxic assets on its balance sheet from 2008, $15 trillion dollars in corporate socialist bailouts and counting.  But it is pumping furiously into the banking system and has been since September.  Long term interest rates have been near all-time lows ever since signaling impending crisis.  And, the Ponzi scheme we call the stock market has had incredibly poor internals for months.  This recent weakness isn't because of the coronavirus. It's because the market participation is and has been thin for months. Could the fear over a pandemic be playing a role in tipping this mess over?  Sure. But it's not the cause of any of this.

The economy has never recovered post 2008.  Or, as I've noted countless times, the U.S. economy peaked around 1980.  I realize I'm the only person in the universe saying that but that doesn't make it false.  :)  In fact, given the endless brainwashing of our society and the fact that the most willfully ignorant people in our nation are the most successful, it provides even more credence that I may just be accurate.  That's a scary thought but I'll share some never-before-posted insight into that in an upcoming post.  

Regardless, the Trump-created blue collar boom is nothing more than arbitrarily created self-deceit of a con man.  
posted by TimingLogic at 11:06 AM