History Does Rhyme
Below is a link to a prescient article surrounding the 1974 mid-term Congressional elections and the issues of the day.
The parallels to today are amazing. The same article could be written today with different dates and names. From war to questionable CIA operations to corruption to economic malaise to foreign policy to national security to uncontrolled spending to globalization to high energy prices to American competitiveness. The U.S. truly does have a self correcting political system.
It's not terribly difficult to understand the collective consciousness of an open society. When things are going well, the masses don't really care what politicians are doing. When things are not so cheery the collective consciousness wants a more active government. What would be more easy to predict at the peak of a long wave expansion than a message of minimal government intervention and low taxes as happened in the 2000 election? What would be more easy to predict than a correction of that consciousness in today's environment?
Many try to divine the future of investments based on historical statistics of investment returns when we have a Democratic President and a Republican Congress or whatever the variation is. Investment results with conservative or liberal government representation is really missing the point. The issue is what macro issues lead to a change in society's collective psyche. The reality is investment results have little to do with what party controls the Congress or Presidency because the government has little to do with the economic cycle. They may tweak it around the edges with stimulus or spending or tinker with too much involvement depending on the macro issues but politicians have very little impact on the long term economy.
http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/busch/06/1974.html
The parallels to today are amazing. The same article could be written today with different dates and names. From war to questionable CIA operations to corruption to economic malaise to foreign policy to national security to uncontrolled spending to globalization to high energy prices to American competitiveness. The U.S. truly does have a self correcting political system.
It's not terribly difficult to understand the collective consciousness of an open society. When things are going well, the masses don't really care what politicians are doing. When things are not so cheery the collective consciousness wants a more active government. What would be more easy to predict at the peak of a long wave expansion than a message of minimal government intervention and low taxes as happened in the 2000 election? What would be more easy to predict than a correction of that consciousness in today's environment?
Many try to divine the future of investments based on historical statistics of investment returns when we have a Democratic President and a Republican Congress or whatever the variation is. Investment results with conservative or liberal government representation is really missing the point. The issue is what macro issues lead to a change in society's collective psyche. The reality is investment results have little to do with what party controls the Congress or Presidency because the government has little to do with the economic cycle. They may tweak it around the edges with stimulus or spending or tinker with too much involvement depending on the macro issues but politicians have very little impact on the long term economy.
http://www.ashbrook.org/publicat/oped/busch/06/1974.html
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