Huh?
@The US is in a recession right now.
@We should view this slowdown as very welcome.
@We still don't see the probability of recession as being particularly high. It wouldn't be over 35 percent.
@The weakness is spilling over from housing to the auto sector to manufacturing to retail. We're at a 90 percent probability of a recession.
@ Lehman's Shin says recession chances are nowhere near 90%.
@ Merrill Lynch's Rosenberg said in a report that the odds of recession are 51 percent
@The decline in oil prices is a real positive.
Are you kidding me? First off, the grand prize goes to the genius who welcomes a slow down. I'm sure all of the people who are currently losing their income feel the same way. What's all this percentages mumbo jumbo? Let's be precise here. I'd say there is a 99.99999% chance none of these predictions are based on any type of model calculations or historical evaluation of specific economic data points and trends determining the future. Can I get a job like this? I can do this too. "By the end of the year, I'd be surprised with we weren't in a recession." That was my brilliant prediction some time ago. Now, given where we were in the cycle, I had at least a 50% chance of getting the answer right. Do I win a cookie? GDP was essentially zero according to a post Barry Ritholtz made. Fuggedabout how the government defines a recession, GDP at or below zero is a recession. Even if it's only for one quarter. We are in a recession. Now, how long it lasts is another story.
@We should view this slowdown as very welcome.
@We still don't see the probability of recession as being particularly high. It wouldn't be over 35 percent.
@The weakness is spilling over from housing to the auto sector to manufacturing to retail. We're at a 90 percent probability of a recession.
@ Lehman's Shin says recession chances are nowhere near 90%.
@ Merrill Lynch's Rosenberg said in a report that the odds of recession are 51 percent
@The decline in oil prices is a real positive.
Are you kidding me? First off, the grand prize goes to the genius who welcomes a slow down. I'm sure all of the people who are currently losing their income feel the same way. What's all this percentages mumbo jumbo? Let's be precise here. I'd say there is a 99.99999% chance none of these predictions are based on any type of model calculations or historical evaluation of specific economic data points and trends determining the future. Can I get a job like this? I can do this too. "By the end of the year, I'd be surprised with we weren't in a recession." That was my brilliant prediction some time ago. Now, given where we were in the cycle, I had at least a 50% chance of getting the answer right. Do I win a cookie? GDP was essentially zero according to a post Barry Ritholtz made. Fuggedabout how the government defines a recession, GDP at or below zero is a recession. Even if it's only for one quarter. We are in a recession. Now, how long it lasts is another story.
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