Quick Comments About The Markets. Was July 13th A Turning Date?
On Friday the financial clowns were remarking that a new dynamic was developing. The dollar going up with the stock market. They said that just in time to watch the market give up Friday's 2% move. The thoughtless banter that is financial reporting is just maddening. At some point the market is going to quit going higher. Now that the inmates are running the asylum (Cramer and Cohen with their recent hyper-bullishness), anecdotally the market is really overbought. Over the last three weeks market strength has in large part been fueled by blowing shorts out of their positions and the subsequent momentum that then carried the market to marginal new highs.
We finally got a futures-driven rally on Friday that was not confirmed by the cash market. We posted that very remark at 2:45 on Friday. Given I was typing that well before 2:45, one might surmise it is somewhat possible to anticipate high probability moves in the market on a shorter-term basis given since about 2:00 on Friday until today we have lost all of Friday's upside move. That move was a high probability reversal day of some sort. Those can be anywhere from a few days, ie giving back a short term move, to the start of something more substantial. The key to making money in markets is to listen what the market is telling you right now and not anticipating anything it isn't telling you. In other words, trying to predict what the market will do too far in advance without supporting data. And while I throw up charts on here, I really don't use charts for anything other than anecdotally supportive art work. They are simply decision support tools to other more substantial analysis.
I do find it interesting that July 13th, the start of this ramrod higher was a Fibonacci time zone 89 days from the March low. 89 is a very key Fibonacci number for its involvement in the development of recurring sequences or cycles. In other words, potentially the start of a downward cycle circumvented by market shenanigans? Let's play a little voodoo and see if this rally gets clobbered and if July 13th was really a turning point of a market correction. In other words, a feint higher to cause hyperventilation in the likes of Abby Joseph Cohen and Jim Cramer.
Regardless, at some point Wall Street's ability to manipulate the market will cease. It's pretty much impossible to predict when that will be without a crystal ball but the time is coming. Friday's false break to the upside may have been a sign that supply and demand characteristics are weakening.
We finally got a futures-driven rally on Friday that was not confirmed by the cash market. We posted that very remark at 2:45 on Friday. Given I was typing that well before 2:45, one might surmise it is somewhat possible to anticipate high probability moves in the market on a shorter-term basis given since about 2:00 on Friday until today we have lost all of Friday's upside move. That move was a high probability reversal day of some sort. Those can be anywhere from a few days, ie giving back a short term move, to the start of something more substantial. The key to making money in markets is to listen what the market is telling you right now and not anticipating anything it isn't telling you. In other words, trying to predict what the market will do too far in advance without supporting data. And while I throw up charts on here, I really don't use charts for anything other than anecdotally supportive art work. They are simply decision support tools to other more substantial analysis.
I do find it interesting that July 13th, the start of this ramrod higher was a Fibonacci time zone 89 days from the March low. 89 is a very key Fibonacci number for its involvement in the development of recurring sequences or cycles. In other words, potentially the start of a downward cycle circumvented by market shenanigans? Let's play a little voodoo and see if this rally gets clobbered and if July 13th was really a turning point of a market correction. In other words, a feint higher to cause hyperventilation in the likes of Abby Joseph Cohen and Jim Cramer.
Regardless, at some point Wall Street's ability to manipulate the market will cease. It's pretty much impossible to predict when that will be without a crystal ball but the time is coming. Friday's false break to the upside may have been a sign that supply and demand characteristics are weakening.
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