Sunday, December 20, 2009

China Central Banker Says Harder To Buy U.S. Treasuries

Once again another of our anticipated outcomes is developing as we expected. We wrote these exact words years ago. That this dynamic would come to pass. That China would be unable to keep buying Treasuries as their economy collapsed. That is exactly what is happening. We wrote what China's central bank is now saying years before they said it. And we did so at a time when absolutely no one was accurately talking about this coming dynamic. It was a time when global bulls including firms like Goldman Sachs, McKinsey and Morgan Stanley and just about every financial blogger and the media were cluelessly consumed by the China miracle and those bearish on on the U.S. economy including Marc Faber, Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers and others were very incorrectly citing China as a safe haven, and the yuan as a stable currency. Baaahaaahaaa! And many were actually yapping that China was going to dump U.S. Treasuries to destabilize the U.S. or as a vote of no confidence for U.S. profligacy. They will all be wrong in the end as we have written countless times.

Now many are rewriting their own history by talking about crises that are well underway. Yet, they are well too late. Their analysis is worth little, if anything, to those who have made major investments including fixed investments in developing markets. Often with your money. Often without your consent.

All of our anticipated outcomes are working out quite nicely. Many have already come to pass but many more are still working their way through to fruition. We will add many more over time. By the time this crisis has passed, we will dismantle most major theses put forward by Wall Street, the blogging community, the media and, if it is even worth mentioning, every economist.

It's good to be a contrarian when it is backed up by a strong quantitative analysis. Well too many on both sides of any issue rely almost completely in an incomplete understanding of fundamentals and the associated data.

posted by TimingLogic at 12:28 AM