Thursday, April 12, 2012

Ten Year Bond Rates Drop 20% In Less Than A Month

The world is endlessly amusing. If incompetence can be captured in a picture, this is it. The seemingly consistently wrong comments of the world's largest bond fund's chief prognosticator has graced this blog numerous times. It was literally when ten year bond yields were 20% higher a month ago that he wrote rates were headed even higher with a return to inflation. Got to give it to him. He literally top ticked interest rates nearly to the day. Seems like a pattern. At the time we said that remark reflected a lack of understanding of the bond market or the economy.

And, here we are again. Right where we said we would be. One more time for bond traders who seemingly can't stop making the wrong calls yet pay themselves tens of millions of dollars to do it. Bond rates are determined by one dynamic. Not by bond vigilantes. Not by some mysterious forces of the universe. Bond rates are determined by supply and demand. As long as Bernanke is stepping on the neck of the Treasury market, Treasury rates aren't going anywhere. And, those who jumped out of bonds for stocks in the last few months, including Goldman Sachs' absolutely stupid call on bonds and stocks just a month ago, good luck. You'll need it.

The status quo's success has little to do with competence and everything to do with countless other factors like being in the right place at the right time, cronyism, luck, etc.

posted by TimingLogic at 10:25 PM

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