Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Harry Dent & Robert Prechter Video Interview

America has been in a depression for nearly forty years as noted on here countless times.   While most Republican corporatists and faux Democratic intelligentsia would laugh at any such characterization, most working class people and seekers of truth who were at least of childhood age in the 1970s can intuitively appreciate this.   But let me say there is data to back up that intuition. (As promised before, more substantial detail on that is coming.)  

Unfortunately, we live in a society dumbed-down by political, religious, university and corporate hierarchical structures so we are often told by class and hierarchy to believe something to the contrary to the truth.  The Reagan Revolution, supply-side economics, NAFTA, WTO, real estate as an investment, the technology revolution, the financialization of our economy, MBAs, service economy retraining, the lawyering of our economy, blah, blah, blah.  It’s all bullshit.  All of it.  I doubt this con game is any form of willful lying so much as institutionalized ignorance and corruption driven by the exaltation of mammon.  (The ego is capable of rationalizing anything and then believing it.)   But wtf does Barack Obama or Ronald Reagan know about economics?  Or, anything else for that matter.  A sign of the times is that politicians now exhibit unbelievable arrogance and ignorance by trying to control nearly every aspect of our lives including the economy.   Why?  Because it serves their own wallet and their own insatiable need for power.

Over the last year we have started to see some very disturbing economic data that is a direct result of political, university and corporate malfeasance and misfeasance.   It first started with the commodities import collapse in China noted on here last year.  Then it started to metastasize into corporate results in China and emerging markets.   And, then currencies started collapsing against the dollar.  Then we saw the biggest corporate earnings warning in recorded history.   And more recently Russia and China have both reported major slowdowns or worse.  The other BRICs nations of Brazil and India are reporting very disturbing contractions as well.   The rupee has hit all-time lows and Brazil’s capital contraction is staggering.  In 2014 we now see  the world’s capital structures are cumulatively in contraction.   We have recently seen mortgage numbers literally collapse.  And this past week in the household survey report, we saw that the economy actually may have lost 73,000 jobs rather than the establishment survey pumped in the press.  

Ignorance and corruption go hand-in-hand.  So, just as in other mania tops, we saw similar asinine behavior.  One I clearly remember in 2000 was Airbus announcing the flying city A380; a flying albatross and money pit that has been a total flop and will likely be abandoned at some point.  It’s just one example of many.  Then before the 2008 collapse, a few examples were the Burj Dubai, the Hamptons mania, and the CEO survey that showed American business leaders as wildly bullish; all reported on here at the time as signs of impending doom.  Now we have similar ignorance and corruption going hand-in-hand with  the Saudi Kingdom Tower.  And, BMW and Mercedes chasing the uber rich.  And, London with a staggering $237 million condo sale(London is the center of global financial corruption) And, a Hampton’s property in the U.S. going for a record $145 million(Long-time readers will remember my posts leading into 2008 that the Hamptons mania was a sign of impending doom reminiscent of 1929.)  And, the Chinese take Manhattan.  And, the universally-bullish economist survey cited in the last post just before the U.S. announced negative GDP.  And Republicans have started coming out in support of Obamacare.  (You had to know there was something sinister in their change of heart.  Could it be their corporate masters told them Obamacare was good for the Republican Party’s  wallets?)   There are many examples but just a few data points I have recently seen come across my desk.

I don’t generally pay a lot of attention to other analyses because of my own analysis tools and models.  But Dent and Prechter are two people, that when they talk, I generally wish to listen to what they have to say.  Similar to Marc Faber.  I don’t endorse any other people’s analytical viewpoints or belief systems on here.  And, I definitely have a major viewpoint difference with Dent on what is driving this cycle and where this will all end up.   I think much of his analysis is to be commended for being very creative but some of his demographic theses are fundamentally-flawed.   In some ways, Prechter appreciates beliefs, value systems, astrological factors and sociology as the foundation to much of economics and thus, he is more appreciative of nuances and degrees of truth.  Yet, both see a future within this system.  That is because they are in this system and profiting from it.  So there are tremendous blind spots in their thinking.  Both Dent and Prechter would have no unique method of survival if this system itself ceases to exist.  So, they discount this outcome.  Otherwise, they would not be able to maintain their current business.  This is a clear example of flawed analysis reinforced by existing belief systems.  Regardless, all seekers of truth can find much common understanding in what is happening and what is yet to come.  

Below is a link to an hour long interview with Dent and Prechter.  I only listened to the first 15 minutes but plan to listen to all of it.  You’ll have to give your email address to watch but that’s a small price to pay.   The first 15 minutes was enough to confirm that we all share the same understanding of markets and thus recognize the dangers we are now facing.  Dent’s downside target on stocks is pretty much exactly where mine has been for the last six years.  Well, that is, if the stock market actually survives.  Although Prechter fails to give a specific number I have seen him intimate that we could be headed back to the stone age.   Both men see the gold bull market as over and both understand how states around the world are fanning the flames of monetary policy in order to maintain what are effectively control-based Ponzi schemes that benefit class rank and privilege.  But, we all know control is nothing but an illusion of the ego.  Smile  Well, as is hierarchy, class rank and class privilege that maintains its grip on humanity because of it.

I think I have noted on here before that I have prepared myself for the possibility of losing everything.  No one can be certain of exactly what will happen but given ignorant, class-based political and corporate hierarchies have gained control of literally everything in our daily lives, we should anticipate that what they have created is a monster of unprecedented proportions.  And, if it unwinds completely, so will every corrupt and ignorant myth that has propped this system up.   

Video interview with Dent and Prechter here.

posted by TimingLogic at 2:25 PM