Saturday, November 11, 2006

Robert Rubin's Speech

On Bloomberg's site under the Audio/Video Reports is a taped Robert Rubin speech everyone concerned about their future should watch whether you live in the Americas, Europe, Africa or Asia. Why? Because his speech surely represents similar topics of concern in your country and the leadership willing and able to address the issues he talks about will lead in the future global economy. I am a huge fan of Robert "Beefy Dollar" Rubin whom I believe is one of the most brilliant leadership minds in the world today. Rubin and other impactful leaders will continue to lay down the gauntlet for serious dialog. This is the type of message which has galvanized a nation in the past and will provide the foundation for significant change in the future. Potential crisis is an arousal for systemic change and if any nation has a system flexible enough to adapt, it is the U.S. system of government and open democracy. (As I have mentioned before, to a lesser extent so does Britain, Canada, Australia, Japan and much of Europe.) So, while many may view this message negatively, I view it as a necessary sign of true leadership attempting to arouse a country into a serious dialog on serious issues. Transformational issues which face all nations every few generations.

Personally, I believe Rubin's comments attacking minimization of risk is focused squarely on litigation, tort reform and Sarbanes-Oxley amongst other upside down examples in the economy. Mark my word. As I said in the past, Sarbanes-Oxley will be repealed or seriously overhauled to an end state of less regulation. When corporations are afraid to take risk because of significantly new and misguided regulation, it will end up on the chopping block when jobs aren't being created and corporations finger regulation as a culprit. We aren't there yet but there's every reason to believe we will be. Too many executives are afraid to take risk and the constant I hear over and over is Sarbanes-Oxley.

This is a cyclical pattern which is repeated time and time again. Long waves of expansion culminating in excessive wealth and greed followed by regulation to legislate morality followed by business malaise caused by over regulation followed by reductions in regulation ultimately leading to renewed risk taking and expansion. It happened in the 1970s and was reversed by Reagan in the early 1980s. And it happened in prior cycles as well.

The video is best watched with Microsoft Explorer. Problems with the video are most likely due to a firewall if you have one.

Next week I'll follow up on my housing post with some Fed commentary as I had promised this past week. I'm trying to frame it in my head so I don't sit down and write a book.
posted by TimingLogic at 9:44 PM