Sunday, August 23, 2009

Dennis Gartman Starts First Commodities Hedge Fund - The Commodities Bust Is Likely Close To Entering A New Downward Phase

Some of you may know of Dennis. I had never heard of him until the last few years of the commodities boom when he started showing up on Mad TV. Dennis seems like a nice enough guy. An honest person trying to make a living. But, I have heard him speak quite a bit and I think it's fair to say he's well inside the financial hurricane that surrounds us. In other words, I would consider Dennis to be similar to Jim Rogers. That would be someone who rode the wave, developed a cult-like following for his moment of glory, yet really doesn't understand he world around him. In other words, doesn't understand fundamentals.

Dennis thinks the hedge fund industry has bottomed and plans to take advantage of this fact by starting a new commodities hedge fund. The financial system and the global economy remains in very serious crisis with a temporary reprieve given by global liquidity injections. The hedge fund industry bust is not over. Far from it. Neither are Wall Street's problems.

I consider this announcement to be another anecdotal data point supportive of the commodities bust being close to entering a new downward phase. A position validated by fundamentals - we have excess commodity production and supply coming out of our ears. A dynamic we wrote about before the commodities collapse. A dynamic that is substantially worse as I type this. Frankenstein finance cannot win against fundamentals. Ultimately the two must meet in the market place.

What's going to happen to all of that oil owned by JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley when people realize China's economy isn't coming back and neither is their insatiable demand for commodities? You remember all of that oil Wall Street is floating around on rented tankers? Or all of the copper warehoused by hedge funds. Or, or or.

B..B..B..B..B..B..B..B..Boom!

Good luck Dennis. You'll need it.
posted by TimingLogic at 7:23 AM