Sunday, October 21, 2012

The Butterfly Effect And Esoteric Connections In The Global Economy–Are Google And Facebook Headed For Extinction?

Back both six and seven years ago I wrote a few posts on Google including that it is a massive bubble.  Much of the reason for that is the same dynamic that I wrote more recently that Facebook could disappear by 2020.   Both of these would be laughed at by anyone within the system.  People who really don’t appreciate the esoteric factors involved in social and economic success and failure.   As I noted on here half a dozen years ago, economic success is primarily driven by factors well outside of anyone’s control.   It doesn’t mean you didn’t work hard for your success, but frankly, Obama was right on some substantial level in his very ill-worded remark about economic success.   Belief systems about who we are as defined by our economic success in the corporate state truly are nothing more than delusions and rationalizations we tell ourselves.  Read on and consider more of this dynamic.  

Most people really don’t appreciate the unsustainability of corporate earnings or how large the corporate earnings bubble truly is.  And hence the advertising bubble that goes with it.   Politicians in this nation have totally destroyed the economy over the last thirty-odd years.  Obviously they did this to benefit the looting of banking criminals, major corporations and elites.   By the way, if you believe book value or Tobin’s Q or, hilariously, price to earnings ratios mean anything, you are going to get a very rude education in coming years.  All three of these measurements mean almost nothing at this time in history.   And, the data derived from all three of these measurements are going to become wildly unstable in coming years.   Wildly. 

The analyst making this call on Google uses the migration to handheld devices and the difficulty in placing ads on that small area of viewing real estate as a major factor in his analysis.  That most certainly is a serious issue as noted on here before but it is not nearly as serious of an issue as the coming collapse in corporate earnings and corporate propaganda –> advertising.

I don’t see Google actually disappearing anytime soon.  But, it most certainly could become a has-been like Yahoo.  Who ever believed Yahoo would essentially be irrelevant just a decade after sporting a stock price reflective of massive hubris in 2000.  Yahoo languishes at a stock valuation 90% lower than just a decade ago and it is still overpriced.  Google is not the best search technology available.  And, Google’s exposure to ad revenue as a source of income is nearly 100%.  It fuels all of its other ventures which will obviously unwind when this mess hits critical mass.  Google’s success is not because it is a better technology or better managed company but because of its social ubiquitousness and the advertising bubble. 

The analyst cited in this link is also bearish on Facebook as I am.  But the reasons are far more sinister than just the advertising bubble.  In addition to the advertising bubble, Facebook is a phenomenon driven largely by fascism.   Pshaw you say.   The grip corporations have on our lives creates many social dynamics that have benefited Facebook, a social media corporation, greatly.   One example is the massive diaspora fascism has created in the United States and many Latin American countries.   Two of the biggest users of Facebook are grandparents and family members of dislocated peoples.  And, why are they dislocated?  Because community and local economic opportunity has been ripped apart by fascism. 

So, let’s take a stroll down the lane of esoteric data regarding the success of Facebook.  Esoteric data that you most certainly won’t be reading on any other financial blogs or financial analyses.  Given the control corporations have exerted in destroying local economics and local small businesses, people now have to go where the jobs are.  Thus ripping apart social fabrics and emotional community support structures while creating a type of diaspora.  Often that migration is thousands of miles away from their family and community.   That includes leaving Mexico or Latin American countries under U.S. control to come to the United States in search of economic opportunity.   American companies (and massive Mexican government corruption) play a huge role in this diaspora from Mexico in countless ways.  One was the Al Gore-Bill Clinton inspired NAFTA “free trade” looting agreement that decimated Mexican small farmers by dumping corporate American industrial food onto the Mexican economy below cost.  And, you thought we fed the world out of the kindness of our hearts?  Hahaha.  Riggghhhttt.   T

his “dumping” that destroys food sovereignty and local food production is subsidized by American taxpayers as all good corporate welfare recipients are.   That dynamic destroyed economic opportunity for what has been cited to be as many as a million Mexican families.  (And countless others in dozens of other nations that are subject to U.S. corporate/government, fascist, looting agreements.)  This dynamic helped drive the massive immigrant push from Mexico into the U.S. since.  Well, there are many other factors in that diaspora but that is a major one.  So, how do these families stay in touch?  Well, that would be Facebook.  And, what is one of the long term theses on here?  That globalization is dead and we will see a return to local economics.  And, that means future generations of millions of people and for local communities that aren’t going to be using Facebook because the diaspora dynamics of this cycle are peaking as I type this.  And, what does that then mean for the long term trend in revenue for Facebook beyond the ad bubble collapse?  

What often appears innocent or completely unrelated is in fact sinister, even if innocently so on some level, and driven by factors not well understood or unsustainable.  Remember that.  Because this type of  Butterfly Effect is everywhere in the global economy.  That means our future crises and outcomes are going to be very different than those predicted by most using surface data.  That includes those who mindlessly prattle on about debt being the major driver of this crisis and the major concern in our future.   Debt is nothing more than an illusion.   And, the status quo wants to maintain that illusion.  They will most certainly fail. 

By the way, this was all courtesy of Al Gore and Bill Clinton.   I know I already said that but I want to make sure it sticks in your mind.  You know, since Democrats are so virtuous and the Republican Party is the party of corporations and fascism .  By the way, Donald Trump just bought Facebook and was so proud of himself he had to tell the world.   Just sayin. 

Fascism or corporatism has destroyed community and local economics in our nation and around the world on a scale that is unprecedented and never discussed by politicians or the mainstream media.   Facebook, being a social media corporation, and a for-profit one at that, is a major benefactor of that profit-driven corporate fascism in ways that most don’t understand.  As is LinkedIn – another corporatocracy-induced, for-profit social media site that I have written is headed for a major fall and possible dirt nap.   And, as such, their success is most certainly going to be transient.  

The world truly is qualitative.  Given fascism and Wall Street’s massive push, enabled by Harvard, Yale and politicians, is driven by the embrace of quantitative science, (often nothing more than junk science)  you can be assured they have no idea what is coming across a whole range of factors and outcomes. 

Title link here.

posted by TimingLogic at 11:23 AM