Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Oil Glut Spurs Production Cuts

If we are running out of oil, why is OPEC cutting production nearly 5%? Or, for that matter, if the world economy is so strong, why are they cutting production? I am extremely leery of oil's ability to hold its current levels. By implication, I am extremely leery of the equity market's ability to do the same. As I've said time and again, corporate profits are the most cyclical in half a century. Part of that cyclicality is due to energy profits.

(Table SP1. OPEC Production million barrels per day)


07/01/2005
Quota
Oct. 2006
Estimated
Production
Nov. 2006
Forecast
Production
Nov. 2006
Projected Cut
Nov. 2006
Targeted Cut

Algeria

894

1,430

1,370

-60

-59

Indonesia

1,451

890

890

0

-39

Iran

4,110

3,750

3,700

-50

-176

Kuwait

2,247

2,600

2,500

-100

-100

Libya

1,500

1,700

1,650

-50

-72

Nigeria

2,306

2,300

2,300

0

-100

Qatar

726

850

815

-35

-35

Saudi Arabia

9,099

9,200

8,850

-350

-380

UAE

2,444

2,600

2,500

-100

-101

Venezuela

3,223

2,450

2,450

0

-138

Total OPEC 10

28,000

27,770

27,025

-745

-1,200


Courtesy of the IEA
posted by TimingLogic at 11:14 AM