Tuesday, February 18, 2014

China, The BRICs And Emerging Markets Continue To Teeter On The Precipice - Part 1A

First I want to highlight a data point that was released today that is completely off-topic.  U.S. homebuilder sentiment is experiencing the largest crash in its history.   (Update – today, February 19th, new housing starts were released and they have crashed.  Down 16% month over month.)  Weather playing some role?  I’m sure.  But this has been predictably coming and I have put up quite a few posts since the middle of last year stating that we are putting in another major top in housing.   Just remember the banks still own all of those assets.  But rather than having to process foreclosures or recognize the toxicity of their balance sheets, the Federal Reserve has allowed them to become predatory, rent-seeking landlords.   Bank balance sheets are still filled with the same illiquid, toxic trash that I wrote would bring the banking sector down a year before the 2008 crash.   The economy sucks and the data across every conceivable metric is now pointing to the Fed’s policies as destroying what is left of our economy rather than saving anything or anyone other than the class-based criminals who created this mess.  Well, and saving the corporate state.  For now.  The reality is today the global economy is magnitudes worse than leading in to the 2008 crisis.  A reminder - up until six years ago my downside target on the S&P was 400-450 for reasons I have mildly explained.   Then six years ago I amended that to the early 1990s or even early 1980s level as being possible for housing and equities.  Not that I was or am predicting that.  But the policies of violence being instituted by bureaucrats is creating a much larger crisis.  You’ll appreciate those statements more in coming posts.  Okay, now onto the post.

I want to make a few additional remarks before moving onto part two in my updates on the BRICs, China and emerging markets.  So I’ll call this Part 1A.   I have written ad nauseam about the violence of the state on here over the last nine years.  After a lull of some years, I have been ratcheting back up the number of posts dedicated to this topic.  I’m going to be writing in greater detail to fill in many of the blanks behind some of the anticipated outcomes I have written about on here over the last nine years.  The last post on China, the BRICs and emerging markets is laying the ground work for this. (Link below)   By the time you finish reading these posts you will understand more than most in finance and economics about what is actually unfolding before our very eyes.   I can’t actually cite statistics, but from what I have seen, you will understand more than everyone in finance and economics.   You will understand it in the detail needed to appreciate what is actually happening and why.  And you’ll appreciate what is happening at a level that will allow you to recognize the passing of events leading to future outcomes while completely removing yourself from the mainstream political, corporate and media babble.   They have literally no idea what is happening. 

I’ll try to roll all of these posts out in the first half of the year.  I will probably be including other posts not listed below and I may combine two or more posts into one or require multiple posts to cover one topic but all of the posts following this paragraph will be covered in detail that I may have omitted in the past.   (Because I didn’t want my work pilfered)  Some of this previously omitted detail is necessary to appreciate how profound this moment actually is.  And, some of what I plan on sharing will simply not be found anywhere else.  That’s not a statement of arrogance but of the ignorance that has developed in the institutions of our world.   Especially within the economics and finance community that is propped up by state violence rather than through any type of competency or merit.   True knowledge has become exceedingly  rare in the modern corporate capitalist world. 

Titles of upcoming posts in this series:

- China, The BRICs And Emerging Markets Continue To Teeter On The Precipice – Part One (Posted on January 29, 2014)

-China, The BRICs And Emerging Markets Continue To Teeter On The Precipice – I have yet to name these coming parts but there will be a Part Two (and possibly a Part Three)

-The Vampire Of The Continent:  The Sources Of The Class-Based Virus Infecting America And The World Today

- The Coming Collapse Of Germany’s Fourth Fascist Reich

- The Coming Collapse (And Possible Demise) Of The Vatican State

- America’s Four Decade (And Counting) Depression

- How The U.S. And Capitalism Was Temporarily Saved From Its Own Collapse Immediately After The Fall Of The Soviet Union

-Why The U.S. Consumer, Housing Or Asset Prices Will Never Pull The Global Economy Out Of Depression

- The Hidden, Misunderstood Culprit For Wealth Disparity In This Nation And Why It Will Lead To The Collapse Of Class-Based Capitalism And This Monetary & Financial System

- The Endless Lies And Self-Interested, Primitive Ego-Motive Inhumaneness Perpetuated By Useful Idiots And Class-Based, Capitalist Predators In The Living Wage Crisis

- How The Nobel Prize Organization, Class-Based Corporate Capitalism and Political Parties Destroyed The United States

- The Largest Unwinding And Greatest Profit Collapse Since The Fall Of The Roman Empire (And The End Of Money And Economics As We Know Them)

-An Update On The Mythology Of The Post-Industrial Service Economy And Its Coming Wage Reset – Part Two

- Class-Based Social Darwinism And Class-Based Capitalism’s Threat To The Survival Of The Species

- Why The U.S. Empire (And Possibly The U.S. As We Know It) Will Fail In The Next Decade (As Will Countless Other States)

-A Unique Look At A Basic Architecture For Democratic Banking, Democratic Economics, Democratic Money And A Resilient And Sustainable Existence

- A New Dawn - Reclaiming Our Humanity   

Literally the entire world is wildly corrupt. And when I’m finished, you’ll recognize just how corrupt it truly is.   No one who speaks the truth is able to be part of this cabal at any level of power.   Doing so would mean losing your seat at the table of evil and all of the class-based and financial benefits  associated with it.   So, there is no way anyone in higher levels of state power are ever going to open their mouths and implicate this Omerta culture.  In order to actually get to such a level of control in the first place, you have already been vetted by the system and proven yourself as a statist.  The very few who actually wake up or recognize what is going on are then removed from the system or ostracized into irrelevance.  Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul come to mind. 

This dynamic of global state brutality and violence is unprecedented in human history.   Not that corruption is something new.  Our nation and every nation has always been corrupt to some degree.  But what is new is that the force of the state has reached unprecedented levels, unprecedented scope and unprecedented reach.  The entire world is subjugated under its extreme violence.   It really doesn’t matter what country you live in because the subjugation of humanity is accomplished through extra-sovereign state violence of corporate capitalism and unaccountable, unelected  bureaucracies.  The extent of state violence as part of everyday life is unprecedented.   The state has almost completely eradicated self-rule or democracy/republicanism.  It certainly has for anything that truly matters.  More actions by politicians will not fix anything.  It will simply result in more state violence.  That is,  unless those actions are to revoke their own power and the power of the state and restore the balance in favor of humanity. 

Those attempting analysis of this crisis strictly from a standpoint of U.S. corruption or the financial sector or projecting their emotions onto the U.S. or other wrongly-held beliefs are going to be very wrong.   Just one example of this is believing the U.S. dollar is going to collapse because our nation is corrupt.   This is not an analysis at all but an emotional belief that doesn’t take into account all factors affecting this global trade settlement system or all of the factors at work in the world today.  If you want to talk about corruption, comparatively, the U.S. almost always smells like roses when considering India, China, Russia, etc.   Even comparative to most European countries, it is dubious to conclude there is some measurable difference in corruption.   Europe has ruthlessly used state violence to literally attempt destruction of the lives of tens of millions of their own citizens.   While the U.S. socioeconomic system is extremely violent, the overt brutality of what is happening in Europe is often equally violent or worse.     

As Christopher Morley is famously quoted, “The real purpose of books is to trap the mind into doing its own thinking.”.  This greater truth has become bastardized in a dystopian world dumbed-down by self-interest and people seeking to develop a following of those who are willing to outsource their thinking.   This is a function of the times we live in and a major reason why people are unable to truly appreciate our current reality.  Personal gain and profit motive are prime movers behind the bastardization of truth.   That includes so much of the blogosphere that is driven by people seeking to “cash in” by developing an self-interested following. 

Rather than creating a curious mind able to then think on its own and form its own ideas,  often what is written or spoken in the modern corporate state world, be it in a book, or within science, within the blogosphere or any other paradigm, has become a religion and ideology that True Believers seek to  defend to their death.   We live in a world where we are told what to think rather than how to think.  So reading for the fanatic, ideologue and rigid mind  (primitive ego state of existence) isn’t about unlocking their own mind’s ability but rather embracing the beliefs of others and defending them as rabidly as if they were their own.   This is the dynamic behind the anthropogenic global warming meme, peak oil, religious strife, the politicization of our society, the free market, corporate capitalism, gold as  honest money and countless other modern fundamentalist movements.

This is the dynamic driving the power of political parties, political leadership, political saviors and the like.  The larger the following, the greater the damage done to humanity.  This is a testament to the last one hundred years of unprecedented state-created misery, destruction and death.   Not just of humanity but of our planet.  How else is the state actually able to create so much misery, destruction and death without the fanaticism and wholesale outsourcing of beliefs it demands? 

This highlights the true narrowness of knowledge in today’s world where we are taught what to think rather than how to think.  The dependence on the state and its endless violence has become unprecedented.   So we dare not ridicule the system that ensures our dehumanized survival.  Humanity has lost an unprecedented level of knowledge by giving up its self-actualized and self-determined existence.   And, until this process of greater and greater state violence is reversed, our own determinism and ability to actualize to a higher plane of consciousness and knowledge will continue to be eroded.   In other words, our own existence will continue to be dumbed-down and dehumanized.

The mainstream viewpoints on both the bearish and bullish sides of the U.S., the global economy and what humanity is  experiencing today are very wrong.   The contrarian viewpoint that is based on sound analysis, intuition and an appreciation for the human condition rejects the groupthink and regurgitation of false beliefs, false memes, junk economics and junk science be they bullish or bearish.   Being optimistic or pessimistic about the future of this system is an ideology unto itself that refuses to accept reality and truth.  When one understands how false memes, false beliefs and false information expands through society (the groupthink mob), there is really no other valid viewpoint other than that of a contrarian.  That is, as long as there is truth in analysis behind it.  Social values and beliefs are really nothing more than transient viruses perpetuated by social dynamics and the statist propaganda needed to create them.  

This dystopian socialization is driven substantially by the politicization of our society, the embrace of a form of fundamentalist economic ideology and the embrace of ignorance on a wholesale level.  A form of social propaganda across a wide spectrum of society’s values and beliefs.  All of this is a function of state violence.  We see this in nearly every aspect of our society where True Believers, fundamental fanaticism or a social movement exists.    I don’t care what the topic is.  It has become tainted or outright nonsensical.   The madness and ignorance of accepting transient social, corporate or state values as our own is fundamental to the creation of this madness.   If you personally cannot confirm what someone else tells you either through science or experience, then why do you hold it so deeply as a belief?  Is there no room in your mind for the unknown and little understood that defines the vast majority of our perceptions of reality?  For the intuitive higher power of your own existence?  Has your rational and logical ego consumed all of your existence and left no room for the humanity that exists within you?   That’s a rhetorical question because if you are reading this, I am likely not talking to you.

There is substantial truth that resides within every person when we wipe away all of those modern corporate capitalist and statist beliefs.  Ironically, most of those truths have been known for thousands of years and people are reawakening to them today as they take back their power of thought and actualization from those who have misused and abused it.   That being the state and its endless manifestations of violence.   At some point, if we already haven’t, (I believe we are incredibly close or possibly even already have as future posts will outline), we will reach a tipping point for corporate capitalism and the corporate state. 

The state is a force and violence that creates a dehumanized, destabilized, disconnected, primitive ego existence.   Then that force and violence fills that existence with useless and meaningless state-enriching activities like overconsumption, debt enslavement, endless financial schemes, plundering the natural world and humanity, mindless corporate work, amusing ourselves to death, drugging ourselves to death, drinking ourselves to death, eating ourselves to death, endless war, spying on anything and everything and the like.   All of these outcomes enrich the power of the state while stealing our humanity.

posted by TimingLogic at 3:40 PM