Monday, July 21, 2014

Update On Geopolitical Economic Shifts Between China, The U.S. And The BRICs

I have written of the coming collapse of China since well before the 2008 collapse.    It was preordained long ago.   Actually Bill Clinton and Al Gore’s corrupt presidency and their policies preordained it.  It’s coming regardless of what the central planners, including Chinese communists, U.S. economists, western corporate capitalists and Wall Street believe or wish us to believe.  

It’s prescient to note that Chinese communist party leader and premiere Li has adamantly stated recently that China will not experience a hard economic landing.  How many times have we heard the horrid predications of central planning buffoons in the west work out exactly opposite of their exclamations?  The arrogance of exclaiming some grand power over the lives of  hundred of millions or billions of people and an economic system with untold trillions of moving parts is a sign of their megalomania.

One of the web crawlers I have is on specific news involving China.  I mentally monitor the type and frequency of that particular news.   As noted in some of the recent news links below, the rhetoric appears to be picking up between the west and China.  Regardless, the mainstream media tone has indeed changed over that of the last dozen years or so.   There used to be an endless stream of drivel on the China miracle, the Asian century and countless other examples of journalistic nonsense.  Now the same bobbleheaded journalists are reporting a much different picture.  One that has always existed but didn’t fit the memes our masters were pumping as media talking points regurgitated by a willfully ignorant journalist community.   

This is very important to appreciate because the mood of western capitalist state power has made a massive sea change towards China.  China is now viewed as a threat rather than a profit opportunity.  Forget any political pulpit rhetoric about wishing a happy and cooperative relationship with China.  The reflection of reality are the memes that are now planted in the press.   Mind you, China’s corrupt, repressive, controlling, centrally-planned statist society was always a threat to freedom, as all violent statist systems are, but the power of greed and profit far outweighed that threat.   With a change in mood from greed to fear,  we can expect responses, both overt and covert to be in accordance with this reality.  This is right inline with anticipated outcomes written of on here. 

Most everyone who is reading this is probably aware that the BRICs nations have recently created their own development bank to challenge the U.S. controlled IMF and World Bank.  And, as a result their trade settlement will surpass the use of dollars.  Many people see this as impending doom for the dollar.  Don’t bet on it.    These countries have no other choice than to watch their economies implode with the massive pool of dollar outflows leaving their nations.  This new development bank is not driven by rising strength in these nations but rather exposes their weakness and reliance on dollars now fleeing their borders.  And this is their statist answer.   I am dubious of their abilities to accomplish anything, even if it may be a symbolic gesture in the right direction.

What exactly do any of these countries make other than cheap labor to be exploited by western economies?  What will this bank actually fund?  90% of China’s exports are by western (western includes Japanese) companies to serve the needs of western or Japanese consumers.  Those companies are not going to settle their trade in yuan, rubles , rupees or real.  They are going to settle their trade in dollars and euros.   The amount of trade between these nations not involving western capital or western companies is negligible.  So, the impact of this new development bank is likely to remain negligible. 

If these countries attempt to mandate a new settlement system to western capital and corporations operating in their nations, they will simply experience foreign capital flight and associated implosion of their already corrupt and useless currencies.  What the hell do any of these countries produce that western companies or consumers want?   Almost nothing without western company-funded jobs, science and economic development.  Brazil, India and China kiss western capitalist asses every day and thank them for the jobs, science, technology, development and economic growth they brought with them.  Because these nations were well too corrupt to create those dynamics on their own.  And will remain well too corrupt in the future without transformative economic and political change. 

I have also been writing for the last eight years that the global trade settlement system is in for some major changes, collapse or  crisis.  All of these moves away from the dollar and all of this new direct trade settlement was predicted as a macro theme on here.  In other words, that we would see a move towards what would likely be direct trade settlement in lieu of dollars.  A change in the global trade settlement system or a crisis in the global trade settlement system doesn’t mean the dollar is preordained to collapse as so many believe.   To the contrary, as written on here many times, the dollar will likely rise violently as this cycle ends.  The beliefs behind dollar collapse are generally wishful thinking driven by emotions and associated faulty analysis.  Who exactly is going to run away from dollars or repudiate dollars?  The very dollar-based interests that dominate the world today?  Bulloney.

If you ask people in Russia, India, China or Brazil if they would rather have dollars or their own local currencies, to a person, the answer would clearly be dollars.   Dollars have been the most sought after black market item everywhere in the world for a long time.  If you don’t understand that, then you don’t have a deep enough appreciation of how wildly corrupt the entire world is and how useless most currencies have always been.  As noted on here many times over the last nine years, China’s currency is worthless.  They just don’t realize it yet. 

The mainstream media’s mood towards China has definitely seen a sea change as noted in the links below.  And, it has changed because the mood of the power structure in western capitalist societies has changed.  Soon, policies will change to reflect that mood. 

It is ignorant to believe the U.S., Europe, Japan or any other western capitalist nations are going to simply sit back and do nothing as the world shifts beneath their feet.  They will respond with policies of violence to protect their interests.  That is the only reason the state exists.  To perpetuate violence on behalf of state actors.  If China doesn’t want to use dollars as trade settlement, the U.S. has clear cover to default in some manner on China’s Treasury holdings or flash up trade barriers.   ie, If you don’t accept our currency, I’m sorry but we cannot pay our bills or trade with you freely.  That’s just one possibility.  And don’t believe the U.S. hasn’t planned for these contingencies either.  Most certainly someone in the bowels of secrecy has. 

Private, for-profit capital has become dominant in this moment of time.  But, remember, the force of the state is even more powerful.  Private, for-profit capital only exists to serve the state.  And the state will exert its violent authority when necessary.   Empire is headed for the trash heap but then so too are the powers it created around the globe.  That includes the BRICs.

Australia will stand up to China to defend liberal values

China increases communist re-education to ensure its control goes unchallenged

China wants more clout through the world’s use of the yuan

China warns officials against aping western morality.  The communist state’s version of corruption is far preferred.

China tells the U.S. to stay out of South China Sea dispute
Is China reneging on its Hong Kong promises?

China’s corruption crackdown won’t end soon because every aspect of communist culture is corrupt

China sends spy ship to U.S. naval exercises

Denial in China about the property collapse

China implodes while central planners fiddle

China plans sale of mortgage-backed securities

China and Japan rivalry heats up

China’s premiere makes absolutely clear that China will not have a hard landing

China’s rise and Asian tensions send U.S. relationship into spiral

China thinks it can beat the U.S. in battle

How fracking helps American beat German industry (And China)

Energy: the indispensable country

China’s top paper warns of slippery slope of conflict with the U.S.

Pentagon plans new tactics to deter China in South China Sea

Juggling act for China as inflows slow

U.S. owned factories selling rotted meat in China (Not related directly but simply shows how western firms own vast tracts of even Chinese-branded factories in China.  Think Mitt Romney and his band of exploitative renter capitalist hooligans.  Don’t believe those barbed wire fences and guard towers are to keep people out of his factory.  That is what a badge reader is for.  Not barbed wire fences and guard towers.  If Romney is too ignorant to realize this, then it would simply be par for the course.  This system operates from ignorance starting at the very top.)

posted by TimingLogic at 1:58 PM