Thursday, February 25, 2010

The Will Of The State, The Olympics, The Current Bout Of Globalization And The Dire Consequences Of Tyrannical Neoliberalism - Orwell Would Be Proud

I wrote this post while watching the 2008 Olympics. Obviously that was quite some time ago. The economic crisis picked up steam and I put this on the back burner while focusing on other posts. Ultimately, I wanted this post to have depth of meaning when I put it up so I decided to delay it. There would have likely been little appreciation for it early in September of 2008. That was before the world changed forever. At that time there were still well too many people who believed the babbling bulloney of politicians and Wall Street mobsters. That has changed forever. At least as defined by my life time. But most likely forever, as in permanently.

There is nothing time sensitive in the post so it's still relevant and timely today. Actually, even more so for the countless commenteurs calling an end to this crisis yet in 2009. The Great Recession - an arrogant and uninformed perspective perpetrated by the status quo and those wishing to make a name for themselves by calling an end to this crisis. The Jim Cramers of this world.

We have discussed some detailed and disturbing outcomes to this cycle over the years but I consider this to possibly be the most important post I will ever put up on this blog. It is really pulling together many of our themes and prior posts. In order to appreciate it, I would encourage you to read all of it. Its ending conclusions really capture the points I am trying to make. They are remarks elitists and globalists don't want you to read. Crooks who have hijacked our Constitution and our rule of law for their own personal fraud.

Remember my post on Dubai a few weeks ago? Apply what you may have gleaned from that New York Times article much more liberally when you read this. In other words, well beyond Dubai itself to a more generalized view of the world as it exists today. If you did not read that post, I would encourage you review it first. (It should still be on the front page of the blog and is titled "The Real Dubai....".

Instead of releasing this in the Olympics of 2008, I'm re-christening this with the Winter Olympics of 2010. Enjoy the games. They are about to begin. Also, enjoy the Olympics as well. You'll understand the difference by the time you have finished reading this post.

“Power always thinks it has a great soul and vast views beyond the comprehension of the weak; and that it is doing God’s service when it is violating all His laws.” --John Adams

"In dictatorships you need courage to fight evil; in the free world you need courage to see evil."
--Natan Sharansky, Soviet dissident, Gulag survivor, author of Fear No Evil

"The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the state to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth becomes the greatest enemy of the state." -- Joseph Goebbels, Nazi chief propagandist

It is quite apparent that these quotes are timeless. And they are very relevant today. Not just as it pertains to repressive societies but also to the evil we now see in free societies. Evil that was most likely not the anticipated outcome by many who contributed to this environment. But one thing is certain. These outcomes were the result of a select few seeking personal gain without a care in the world for the betterment of We the People. To form a more perfect Union. And for that I believe it is quite appropriate to conclude this economic environment is the result of tyranny. Of true evil. And I use evil in the sense that it is generally intended. Not in a religious context but as Natan Sharansky defines it. As people who have lived under repression at the hands of a few would define it.

We've talked substantially of great risks in emerging markets over the years and now I want to do so from a unique perspective that isn't reported in the media, the financial community or by the Washington politicians. At least, not today's politicians. That's because today's politicians are generally part of the problem. There are some good people in Washington but they also suffer under the repressive yoke of evil in having their voices heard.

The press is just now awakening from their lengthy slumber of no-think and sycophantic adoration of the schemes perpetuated by the finance industry and business elites. But, it has yet to really embrace the true complicity of the state. (That was almost two years ago when I first wrote this post. Today, we have progressed a bit farther than sycophantic adoration but not that far.)

In the PwC post I wrote that China's communist party would view the Olympics as an opportunity to showcase and they didn't disappoint. Not really much of a prediction if one understands the psyche of the state.

There is something truly great about the Olympics - a celebration of human art, competition and achievement - but there seemed an eerie setting for much of this Olympics starting with the opening ceremonies. China spent ten times more than the prior Olympics in the opening ceremonies alone. The Olympics were an opportunity to showcase the accomplishment, history and great cultures of China yet the antiseptic surroundings and circumstance gave the appearance of a propaganda event. Was it to showcase the people of China? Or the power of the state?

Many examples include:
-The state lied to the public regarding the fireworks display in the opening ceremonies by showing animated graphics portrayed viewers were led to beleive were live.
-The state restricted their own citizen's access to the Olympic grounds for fear of civil disobedience or fraternization with outsiders.
-The state asked citizen protesters to fill out protest forms in advance then used that information to arrest many of these noble seekers of truth and freedom.
-The state most assuredly was complicit in covering up the Olympic participation of multiple under-aged children. By the way, something China has done before. Obviously to the benefit of the state and with no regard for the innocent victims be it the under-aged children themselves who were forced to compromise their integrity for the state or their competitors.
-The state selected "paid" Chinese fans, most likely communist party members, to attend and cheer for Chinese athletes.
-The state flooded Beijing with over one hundred thousand communist party officials spying on their own people during the games. All to ensure no unrest or disharmony developed.
-The state voiced-over a girl singing at the opening ceremonies because the girl singing the song didn't portray the image the state wished to project.
-The state arrested foreign nationals who were peacefully protesting China's hundreds of thousands of human rights abuses and countless millions of deaths.
-The state denied visas to international attendees based on ideological differences or fear of dissent at the Olympics.
-The state represented the children in the opening ceremonies as being part of the ethnic diversity of China while in reality that was not the case.
-The state flaunted counterfeit Olympic merchandise during the international event (Something I view as oddly fitting for the often counterfeit IOC bureaucracy.)

As expected, the propaganda machine was working overtime. What is even more telling is that an associate of mine was traveling in Asia during the Olympics. They witnessed a news organization in Japan who asked vacationing Chinese citizens (in Japan) what they thought of many of these deceptions. The Chinese were completely unaware of any manipulations by the Chinese propaganda machine. In other words, the communist party and its control of the media have successfully shielded its own people from reality as it has for decades. One can gain an appreciation of how the state can stir up a frenzy of nationalism when they are able to control or manipulate thought. Often throughout history the people find in retrospect they were fighting for a belief that was completely untrue. That is, when there is ultimately great transparency into the actions of the state and truth is revealed. Similarly, I am confident any potentially negative feedback, negative press or call to attention about potential human rights or Olympic rules violations by foreign press or participating nations during the Olympics would surely be fomented into an attack on the honor of China's people. And, who would do that? The state of course. And, why would they do that? To deflect and refocus an increasingly agitated populace away from problems caused by the state and onto an external enemy - a timeless trick always used by the state to maintain its power. Sharansky, Jefferson, Aristotle and countless other activists for freedom and truth have told us the state needs and creates external enemies to maintain control over the people. To refocus people away from the real enemy - the state. Therefore, the basic premise that the world can achieve lasting peace by a policy of appeasement of the state, as is the underlying precept of economic globalization in its current form, is a complete fallacy. A ruse. An impossibility which will lead to great volatility as its outcome.

This points to a substantially larger issue of today. That of the state. The state determines truth for the people of China. It determines their will, their rights, their thoughts and their freedoms. It has unknowingly also determined what people in democratic societies have chosen to believe about China. That would be you. In any environment where the state attempts to control or gain control over the sovereign, state deception to maintain control is rampant and a substantial component of daily reality. In this case, why would the arrogant and unaccountable state see anything wrong with misleading three billion Olympic viewers around the world in various unsavory antics when it is part of every day indoctrination in China? That may seem quite odd to you and me but after nearly a century of it, I'm sure the communist bureaucracy's view of what it can get away with is quite twisted. How many more deceptive Orwellian acts are part of the Olympics? Ones that have successfully been kept secret?

If you see parallels to any of this in other countries, including your own, then you realize the state exists in all nations. Even in democratic societies - not to be confused with democratic government which is the will of the people. Instead government and the state exist side by side. The state being what power lies outside of the will, transparency and oversight of the sovereign. Its manifestations take many forms. One may be recognition of capital above the rights of the sovereign we have uniquely discussed often. (Called "free markets" by elitist liars and supportive fools who have been brainwashed by elitist liars.) Another interesting perspective might be in the treatment of crime. Government recognizes that much crime is directly tied to economic opportunity. Government's response to increasing crime, gangs, illegal drug trade and other measurable criminal metrics might therefore be policies to increase economic opportunity for all of society. The state views all crimes, including civil disobedience - a right granted by our creator of all people everywhere - as a threat to the state. So the state's answer to all crime is increased law enforcement and imprisonment - in its extreme form we see this as a police state. (Have you ever wondered why America's prison population dwarfs all other democratic societies in both nominal and percentage terms? Was it always this way? Is it an indication that the rule of law is tantamount? Or might one actually infer this to be an economic indicator of great importance? One that could very well be pointing to systemic loss of economic opportunity? Or, even the erosion of government and the increasing influence of the state?)

Another manifestation of state power may be spying on its citizens as we see in any number of forms around the world today. Of course, done so for our own safety. Or so the state tells us. One might wonder why the Congressional approval ratings are 14% today. And, this is after the Democrats won control of Congress just two years ago when approval ratings were still less than 30%. Democrats have spent the last two years (almost four years now that it is 2010) celebrating their election wins, viewing it as a mandate by the sovereign, while the sovereign have deemed the new party to be indistinguishable from the last with even lower approval ratings. Could one deduce from this that the people view both parties as not representing the will of the sovereign? Or, more pointedly, that Congress has lost touch with its role in government and is therefore, even unknowingly in some instances, working for the benefit of the state?

Reread that last sentence in the above paragraph. Do you remember my post citing Thoreau's Civil Disobedience? "Others--as most legislators, politicians, lawyers, ministers, and office-holders--serve the state chiefly with their heads; and, as they rarely make any moral distinctions, they are as likely to serve the devil, without intending it, as God. A very few--as heroes, patriots, martyrs, reformers in the great sense, and men--serve the state with their consciences also, and so necessarily resist it for the most part; and they are commonly treated as enemies by it."

It becomes obvious from history that the state and its abuses are timeless. The state is based in neoliberal elitism. (Often misnamed or titled as neoconservatism in the United States. Neoconservatives are really elitist neoliberals as defined by their policies.) Elitism is a term often misused for political purposes. Elitism is not an attack on wealth creation or human achievement, both of which are embraced by a free society. Elitism is not a political party position as some would try to define others. Elitism is a belief that much of the general populous is not fit to enjoy the merits of self-determination and self-rule. Of democracy itself. Elitism is the belief that a certain people of perceived abilities, intellect or wealth are supremely more fit to govern. Elitists believe they know what's better for us than we do. Or more usually, don't care what we think. Elitists mouth democracy while subverting it with their actions. Elitists in positions of authority serve the state because elitists serve themselves.

We can measure the elitist impact on society by the sovereign's participation in the process of government and transparency encouraged by elected officials or members of the state. In other words, government encourages the sovereign's active participation and leadership in governing. The state acts outside of those bounds in its own interest. The state, as an example, benefits at the expense of the sovereign from lobbyist relationships outside of the transparency and will of the sovereign. From unfunded wars. From fraud and corruption.

Elitism transcends most every culture on some level. Often unconsciously. An simple example would be that most of the world governments still embraces a monarchy, even if they are now constitutional in nature. What inalienable right does the Queen of England have to riches paid for by the sovereign of Great Britain? None other than the invalid supposition of hereditary. Especially when people go without economic opportunity. The Queen owes her title and financial existence to crony elitism. Another is our look at the PwC CEO survey. Society and shareholder beliefs that CEOs somehow possess special powers that allow them to effectively act as monarchs. To rightfully chafe at oversight, transparency and accountability. To pay themselves whatever they can steal from the shareholders. And society believes these elitists will do what is in the best interest of the shareholder without proper corporate governance?

Elitism is the very basis for corruption, repression, racism, human rights abuses and stagnation of social & economic development. Elitism is the basis for socialism, communism, big government and any form of the state that restricts the rights of individuals. There is no historical or current basis for any other conclusion. Elitism is the basis for most forms of rule today and always has been. It is indeed a pariah of humanity. Because its existence is inevitable, the only solution is to minimize its impact through active self-rule and transparency. Does your government encourage active your participation in the process of governing? Solicit your involvement? Seek to educate you on issues and solicit your feedback on solutions? Seek to offer transparency and encourage oversight by the sovereign? To do your will? Of course, if you live in a communist, corrupt or dictatorial country, there is no way to minimize the state because there is nothing else. There is no government. There is no Bill of Rights or written Constitution to protect the sovereign from the state or elitists. Our Constitution is the protectorate of government (self-rule) and the enemy of the state.

Obviously, this is separate topic from the economic consequences I have talked about this cycle. Or is it? Actually the two are indistinguishable. Let's tie the two together.

What no news sources or supporters of this current incarnation of globalization (including the state) are going to tell you is free societies have filled the financial coffers of repressive and crooked states around the globe via the greatest wealth transfer in history. Transfer to states that do not embrace many or any ideals similar to other democratic or self-determined societies. This latest round of economics we call globalization could very well have laid the seeds for substantial global strife giving crooked, repressive states the funding for mischievous behavior. With our money. That's right. Our money. Your money and my money has enriched the state and crooked leadership around the world through this incarnation of this Orwellian elitist-induced form of globalization. Pick any country or terrorist group of questionable politic or ideals. Every single one has filled its coffers with the wealth of democratic societies achieved only through globalization and this bastardization of what elitists now call free trade. (Code words for transfers of wealth via massive theft of society's wealth.) Globalization created by our governments. Or, should I say the state. Welcome to the world of the surreal. You have armed your enemy with the state's endorsement. With your money.

Only time will tell but we already see states that have financially benefited from globalization showing a substantial uptick in volatility and aggressive behavior - China, Pakistan, Venezuela, Iran, Russia, etc. This is clearly an area of risk that the proponents of the current incarnation of globalization would rather not talk about. What they also don't want to talk about is that this was easily predictable. The current economic policies embraced by world leaders (the state) have enabled the vast potential for volatility, crisis and even war. Were you informed of the consequences in advance? Did your government seek to educate you on this topic? Did you vote for this? Did the state seek your approval after informing you of the consequences? Did your government encourage these dynamics to increase the well-being, enrichment and capital stock of society? Of We the People? In Order to Form a More Perfect Union? It's an easy answer we can measured quite a few ways via mathematics in lieu of opinions, beliefs and lies created by the media, economists, politicians or banksters. Or did the state create this without the consent of the sovereign? Without seeking to educate and inform? Without empowering and informing the people through the democratic process? Did the state create this environment for an elitist few seeking self-serving goals? To serve the tyranny of neoliberalism?

"Sometimes the law defends plunder and participates in it. Thus the beneficiaries are spared the shame and danger that their acts would otherwise involve. But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them and gives it to the other persons to whom it doesn't belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime." -- Frederic Bastiat

Over this past cycle, I watched American CEOs talk about how easy it is to do business in China and shook my head in amazement. United Technologies' CEO, as an example, even went so far as to say it was easier to do business in China than in Europe. What foolishness and naivety in this perspective. What outright stupidity. Of course it is easier. Did he ever think about why? The reason it is easier to do business in China is because capital is only subservient to the state. That means business is unencumbered by the labor laws, consumer protection laws, environmental protection laws, intellectual property laws and other necessary costs that exist in a society ruled by a self-determined sovereign. By a rule of law. Profits obviously run deeper when business doesn't have to abide by a well-developed rule of law benefiting individual rights and self-determination. (Corporatist politicians and lobbyists in the United States have similarly dismantled much of the rule of law of our society over the last few decades across every measurable swath of society and economics. There are your "free markets".) And, again, tell me how "doing business is easier" has any benefit to the will of any free people? To human rights? To sustainable economic development? I could have pulled those exact same CEO sentiments from seventy years ago as Hitler's state also embraced American capital. That is, until World War II.

It's good to see that the Orwellian world thrives and at its expense lay the rights and will of the sovereign. And now we shall more than likely see states across the globe step forward in coming years to embrace the ultimate expression of its very existence. That would be something we have remarked of a few times on here over the last few years. War. (States are able to do this because of the great transfer of wealth they have accumulated as a result of "globalization".) Just in time to take advantage of the rising nationalism we have been anticipating. What better way for the state to pump up the propaganda necessary than to deflect criticism for its manifest failure than to blame external enemies? To rally its populace in an effort to deflect domestic criticisms? External enemies the state created by encouraging economic ties with states who do not share our ideals of freedom, democracy or the rule of law. And they did so with these ties having no benefit to a free society. But instead to the state. Ties our founding fathers warned us of. Long live the state, for were it up to them, freedom would be dead. The games are about to begin. On a totally separate topic, be sure to enjoy the Olympics.

"Perhaps it is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged to provisions against danger, real or pretended, from abroad." ... "We are free today substantially, but the day will come when our Republic will be an impossibility. It will be an impossibility because wealth will be concentrated in the hands of a few."
--James Madison
posted by TimingLogic at 7:27 AM links to this post

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Cash For Clunkers Part Deux - Senate Approves $1,000 Tax Break For Companies Hiring Workers. Umm, More Like Soviet Union Part Deux.

I know this is going to be a huge driver to hire thirty million unemployed or underemployed workers. I can't wait to run out and hire someone and pay them $50-100,000 so I can collect my $1,000. What would be even better is if the government would give me something for these people to do. You know, how about some make-work. We could clean windows for Congresspeople. Maybe wash their cars. How about doing their laundry? No, I have a better idea. Let's dig holes and then fill them back in when we are finished.

Do you know who is going to pay for this program? Taxpayers. Many of whom are out of work. So, the government is spending your savings even though you don't have a job. And maybe even if you don't have savings. They are just spending your future savings.

For God's sake. This is pathetic. This is what happens when bureaucrats run an economy. Soviet Union part deux.

posted by TimingLogic at 12:27 PM links to this post

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Is The Real Cost Of The Goldman Sachs Bailout Close To $200 Billion?

First off, we have remarked repeatedly the TARP money is a rounding error in this crisis. That the US government is backstopping about $20 trillion in assets and toxic trash created because of Wall Street. Without those actions, no firm on Wall Street would have survived their completely incompetent and possibly even fraudulent behavior. (We need an independent investigation! How about giving this investigation to an independent prosecutor with unlimited resources of the FBI.)

Now we see the specific bailout for Goldman Sachs may have been almost $200 billion dollars. Or, at least there is an argument to be made that this is the case. If the AIG bailout has cost American taxpayers $150 billion and this article is correct in its facts, then we could logically assign a substantial amount of AIG's bailout cost, if not all of it, to the largest benefactor of its toxic CDOs. That would be Goldman Sachs. In other words, AIG failed in large part because of Goldman Sachs. Therefore, Goldman Sach's direct bailout is really much more than discussed. Much larger than the payout of CDOs from AIG. But, instead is in fact the cost of the AIG bailout. All while Americans rot.

I'm sort of curious how many people would still be in their homes if the government had instead spent $200 billion bailing out homeowners?

Link here.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:47 AM links to this post

Man Bulldozes Home To Avoid Foreclosure

This is a very nice home on some substantial acreage with an cement pond and a lake. (Second photo on the slide show.) This is a multi-million dollar home in California, New Jersey or New York. And the man had a substantial amount of equity in his home. He just hit an emotional wall and cracked.

What I find most interesting is in a poll of over 30,000 responses, nearly 80% of people supported his decision. There is a substantial rage in this country as one would expect when there is rampant fraud and no government response.

The stress level many people are under in this type of environment can be nearly unbearable. When there is absolutely no compassion or empathy in government's response to fraud, (ie actions to help people) and we have many in society who are hard-hearted to the plight of their fellow man, there is often a perspective that there is no other choice than to internalize it. When those emotions come flooding out, the results often include conflict with themselves (self-destructive behavior for caregiver egos) or conflict with perceived sources (lashing out at others for narcissistic egos) of that pain. The fact that people don't have access to qualified mental health professionals (poor or no health insurance) only makes the situation that much more volatile.

I don't know this guy's exact story but these types of situations are everywhere. It's very sad but it is more than likely going to get much worse.

posted by TimingLogic at 9:38 AM links to this post

Marc Faber Finally Wakes Up From His Dream And Says China May Crash - The Reality Is China WILL Crash

Marc Faber is one of our favorites on here. But, he's been living in a false reality on many issues over the last five years or so. One of those is that the world is moving east and that China will be the beneficiary of a U.S. collapse. (The U.S. economy would roar today with the right policies. And that is not tax cuts for corporations as recommended by Republican idiots either.) Well, he was also bullish on the euro and bearish on the dollar and quite a few other misses. Better late than never, he finally wakes up and remarks that China may crash. As we have uniquely said on here for years, it has nothing to do with "may" but when. Another quite capable mind, Jim Chanos, is the topic of this article but both are quoted.

Hot money may be able to take advantage of the misery of others and decimation yet to come but the vast majority of money is going to be lost in China and emerging markets because firms invested enormous sums of money in fixed investments thanks to the advice of firms like McKinsey, Goldman and many multinational firms, consultants and politicians. These lemmings have no choice but to watch their investment evaporate due in large part to Wall Street mobsters, financial "advisors" and the crew of clueless in our financial industry. (All of them - bulls and bears alike.)

As I have said before, this was all predictable more a decade ago. And if firms were getting advice they could actually rely on, they never would have invested in China in the first place. The world is being led by a bunch of neoliberal idiots. Retribution will be a bitch. As we have uniquely cited for years (while the world was partying), we are in a cycle of volatility. Buckle up.

Link here.
posted by TimingLogic at 8:29 AM links to this post

The World Of The Surreal - Greece Hires Goldman Sachs Employee As Debt Chief

posted by TimingLogic at 8:28 AM links to this post

Monday, February 22, 2010

For Goldman Sachs, The Greece Fleece Is Another Ripoff

posted by TimingLogic at 11:44 AM links to this post

Goldman Sachs Doing More Of God's Work By Turning Sinners Into Saints (Attempted Brainwashing) By Hiring Public Relations Firm

posted by TimingLogic at 11:34 AM links to this post

A Lesson In Tyranny - Anthem Wants To Raise Health Insurance Premiums By Up To 39%

On a day our big business President is going to unveil his new big business health care plan for the tenth time, let's look at one effect of our government not enforcing the rule of law. (Remember, on this blog we are not pro business as the President said he was some weeks ago in defending his support for JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs bonuses. The Republican party is also clearly a big business party. The modern-day Republican party wouldn't even be recognized by Abraham Lincoln, pragmatically the founder of the party. Our society is crumbling because money-grubbing politicians are pro business. They need to be pro markets. But being pro market doesn't allow politicians to raise billions of dollars from business lobbyists. Pro business and pro markets aren't remotely the same thing. They have absolutely nothing in common. The former is incredibly destructive as brain dead politicians have so well proven over the years by the support of pro business policies.)

39% rate increases driven by rising health care costs? Hmmm.
Monopolies are destroying our country in substantially more ways than are being discussed. And that includes the same issue of Constitutional State's Rights that have been unconstitutionally trampled on by Washington politicians in their search for monopoly power at the expense of States. There is a simple answer. That would be enforce the rule of law across a wide spectrum of issues. You remember that wildly radical concept? I thought we were a nation of laws.

It's no irony that the Department of Homeland Security issued a release some time ago labeling those who view State's Rights constructively as potential terrorists. I guess there are quite a few constitutionalists, constitutional attorneys and constitutional scholars who are hiding as terrorists. Then there were those terrorists from years ago who fought for State's Rights in our rule of law. You know, like Thomas Jefferson and James Madison. Legitimate authority (a self-governed society) embraces peaceful dissent.

Without a nation of laws what separates us from the whim of tyrants? Companies are basically operating in a lawless society with the dismantling of regulation in nearly every industry. Free marketers love this one. Let the market decide. A position embraced by mathematically-challeged ideologues who don't understand basic concepts of gaming or market theory. Break Anthem of California into four or five smaller companies or whatever an analysis would allow. It's that simple. And do it NOW! Enough dithering by a leaderless White House and Congress.

There are so many simple solutions to this health care issue. The only thing stopping those solutions are tyrants. Anthem is a tyrant. Not because Anthem is bad. We cannot assign human traits to companies. Companies provide us with jobs, invention and more when they are managed for the betterment of society. They don't act for the betterment of society when they are given personhood rights by a fraudulent Supreme Court decision. Or when they are allowed to run roughshod over the people of this country. The sovereign. Companies simply do what they are allowed to due. Being pro business instead of pro markets has allowed them to do pretty much whatever they wish. Anthem is a tyrant because our federal government has allowed them to become one by choosing not to enforce the rule of law. Why have they allowed Anthem to become a tyrant? It's simple. It serves the whim of politicians seeking personal favor and legal bribery aka lobbying.

Our society and economy is crumbling because we are no longer a nation of laws but of tyranny in its place. The whims of man. Goldman Sachs gets bailed out and pays record bonuses on the backs of workers living in squalor because we are no longer a nation of laws. But a nation of the whims of man, better known as tyranny. That is why the people of this country believe Washington politicians have no legitimacy in their consent to rule. This crisis has nothing to do with China or debt or any of the other hogwash.

I still plan to put up my perspective on a unique health care solution. It'll get up before that debate ends. I have plenty of time.
posted by TimingLogic at 11:23 AM links to this post

Sunday, February 21, 2010

A Lesson In Herd Behavior - McKinsey Quarterly Goes Brain Dead And Asks If The Renminbi Is The Next Global Currency

The world in which I have lived much of my life values McKinsey much the way Goldman Sachs is valued on Wall Street. In other words, there is an enormous aura where only the most brilliant are hired at McKinsey. By conclusion, anything associated with the company must be prescient. Just as we see that is preposterous with Goldman Sachs, we now see it is preposterous with McKinsey.

This dynamic exists with some company or another at every time in history. We saw it with IBM twenty years ago, Microsoft fifteen years ago and Google today. There are countless examples. It's really somewhat of a ridiculous notion, especially when one considers the metrics used to determine the hiring process at these firms. Typically lots of new college hires (minions) who are able to be shaped (manipulated) into the company's particular belief system (ideology). That's not necessarily so bad in itself because there are a few companies with great cultures. (A very few.) But these companies like Google, McKinsey, Goldman Sachs and others always loose their appearance of invincibility because it's all really rather ridiculous propaganda in the first place. Frankly, if you really think about it, it's almost a little Third Reich-esque - a master race of sorts where the most brilliant are chosen for their superiority or so the propaganda leads us to believe. And all of the little gerbils run as fast as they can in their cage (universities) in hopes of getting manipulated into their favorite company's ideology. (Don't worry, as a matter of practicality, I have done my fair share of running on the wheel.)

There are six billion people on this earth. To believe that humankind has found some superior selection process by which to hire only the most capable within some particular organization is laughable if it weren't almost creepy. Yes companies need to find some selection process but the existing one is often straight out of an Orwell novel.

Standardized test scores are some measure of something. I'm not sure what it is having taken more than my fair share. I guess it depends on the objective. Sometimes it is a particular type of reasoning skill. But I think generally it is some ability to mimic. To learn what those before them perceive as valuable. Or what a bureaucrat believes is valuable. I realize there has to be some measurement of what we learn and I don't have the perfect answer. But many people have substantially better answers than the status quo.

Unfortunately, human creativity and ingenuity are the most valuable measure of intelligence for any career or self-fulfilling life and that cannot be measured. And if you arrogantly believe you can measure creativity and ingenuity as many do, then I have a test for you to take. If you can pass it, then I'll believe you. And if you can pass it, then you obviously knew Albert Einstein was going to change physics forever. To destroy the generally accepted beliefs of every brilliant physicist in the world at that time. The best our hallowed universities could produce. A reminder..... After graduation Einstein couldn't get a real job so he was a self-described miserable patent clerk who was in what would generally be considered a loser job for a physicist. Needless to say he wasn't even very good at it which only reinforced the perception of those who knew him that he would never be great at anything. That is, before everyone in the world of science was lapping his boots after he became the most recognizable name in the history of science. Heard that general thematic story before? Don't think that showed up on the standardized test form.

That Americans are now in a mad rush to send their young children to cram-like schools, a reactionary response to the perceived success of a concept entrenched in Asian culture perpetuated by marching morons like Thomas Friedman in his book The World is Flat. This dynamic of pushing our children into this type of educational dynamic is one of the greatest tragedies of our day. One that is completely and fatally flawed. Parents are simply filling their children's heads with the requests of the leviathan rather than encouraging development of free thought, free will, self determination and creativity. Ideals that truly define a great society. Not reciting the government's sanitized view of history or solving a quadratic equation.

I actually believed this bulloney when I took my first job after college. I was a little puppy dog with my willing ego lapping it all up. Of course, they didn't know I hacked my college records file and changed all of those one-legged A's (F's) into two-legged A's. For God's sake I'm kidding so I don't need some minion from the Department of Homeland Security contacting me about my act of terror. I am allowed to still tell jokes aren't I? Just making sure that the thought police haven't outlawed that one. Yes I realize terrorism is a serious issue. So go find them. I passed my last psych exam. (Those don't seem to work so well either.)

Anyway, McKinsey is close to being punted off of my blog link list for the ridiculousness that often graces the McKinsey Quarterly over the last few years. They are on the wrong side of so many macro issues that I feel like I am often reading propaganda. That is likely to bite them in the future as it will Government Sachs.

Even joking of the Renminbi as the world's reserve currency is just about the most preposterous notion I could imagine. Yet, indeed it is true. The Orwellian world lives. Wake up guys and gals and smell free-thought. You are buying too much propaganda.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:47 AM links to this post

Saturday, February 20, 2010

A Case Study In The Human Ego - Charlie Munger's Parable Of BasicLand And The Fraud That Is Wall Street. A Fraud Created By Political Idiots.

Charlie Munger is Vice-Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway..... If you don't know what company that is, well, it's Warren Buffet's company.

In order to achieve enlightenment, we must question even our most basic beliefs - very little of what we believe individually and as a society is actually truth. That often includes what you erroneously believe about yourself. In other words what is ego-driven versus your authentic self.

It is only ego which keeps anyone from admitting Wall Street's brilliance was only fraud. That it was embraced so readily without reason or logic was in fact a lie perpetrated by people with tremendously faulty beliefs. And it was society's faulty beliefs to belief those ego-driven faulty beliefs of often self-aggrandizing political and financial megalomaniacs. Effectively society has run itself off of a cliff by listening to elitist idiots, most of whom were indoctrinated by elitist idiots running our institutions of higher learning. What a surprise. Ivory towered idiots, including more than a few Nobel Prize economists, with unproven theories hide in universities where their unproven theories of insanity are tolerated. Often even embraced. In the real world those views are quickly destroyed by irrefutable mathematical fact, not grandiose theory. Theory often pumped like crack for the sole purpose of the self-aggrandizing ego. Which is why we were the only source I am aware of writing that all of those brainwashed Harvard MBAs headed to Wall Street for a Brave New World were actually headed to their Orwellian slaughter. And doing so when the media, politicians, Harvard MBAs, economists and business leaders were singing the praise of Wall Street's utter stupidity.

The great irony in Munger's remarks is that Berkshire Hathaway has often contributed to this crisis. In other words, Charlie has a little soul searching to do himself. In fact, we all do.

(Link in the title)
posted by TimingLogic at 9:06 AM links to this post

Friday, February 19, 2010

Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent Of The Governed


Next week I will get up the Olympics post I referred to a week or so ago. I consider it possibly the most important post I have yet published. I hope you will find it to be a worthy read.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:29 AM links to this post

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Matt Taibbi On The Grifter Con Games Perpetuated On The Poor, The Underprivileged And The Unemployed By Goldman Sachs And Other Wall Street Firms

This is quite a hilarious and informative article.

In this article Matt writes about the dynamic we have remarked of on here quite a few times. That is, the circular scheme of the government bailing out Wall Street then Wall Street turning around and bailing out the government by buying its debt. As we have noted, this is likely the real reason Wall Street is not being broken up. That community banks and individuals within the U.S. are not likely to buy all of Washington's fraudulent debt so Wall Street is necessary in this fascist scheme. And, I mean fascist in the true definition of the word, not some off the cuff sarcastic remark.

Surprisingly, no one has written of this dynamic. Or at least no one I have seen.

posted by TimingLogic at 11:32 AM links to this post

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Elder Statesmen Of Wall Street Join The Populist Movement - RE-REGULATE BANKS

The link to this article is in the title of the post. This differential between the elder statesmen and the current crew of brain-dead CEOs on Wall Street proves a point we brought up some years ago. That is, as Joseph Schumpeter noted seventy-odd years ago, the first order of business in getting through a crisis is to rid society of the leadership positions held by the dead wood who's faulty thinking caused the crisis in the first place.

We need to get rid of the likes of Bill Clinton, Clinton economic advisors aka idiots, George Bush and his economic idiots, all of the old dead wood in Congress (term limits would be great to permanently rid ourselves of these infestations of mental rot), all of the dead wood leading Wall Street firms, all of the dead wood lobbyists and all of the dead wood business leaders running mega firms.

When taxpayers were forced to bail out Wall Street, all of the senior management should have been fired or worse. We are well on our way to ridding ourselves of much of this dead wood and their asinine thinking. I wish it were possible to make this transition in a week to new ways of thinking and new leadership but ...........

Update: Btw, I find it interesting that one of the old timers quoted in here remarks that all trading should be banned, including client trading. This is a position we have taken on here. That all speculative activity should be banned. Lending only for banks - a horrific thought for the current crop of bozos who ran our economy into the ditch.
posted by TimingLogic at 2:55 PM links to this post

ProPublica Federal Government Stimulus Spending Chart

More big government bloat benefiting those most cozy in their relationship with big government. That would be big business. We knew that when the charlatans and lobbyists converged on Washington for their share of the stimulus spending bill.

I wonder how many self-employed or entrepreneurs seeking to maintain businesses or start new businesses got a piece of this pie? I don't have a lobbyist so I can vouch that I had no opportunity to apply in that category. The Small Business Administration has spent $300 million. And the SBA has been reasonably unproductive for quite a few years. Some of that is well outside of their control. Anyhow, that $300 million I think that's just about how much money the CEO of Goldman Sachs has made in the last few years. That was also government stimulus money.

We know where the stimulus money is going. To those with the deepest pockets already. All while millions of Americans rot.
posted by TimingLogic at 9:09 AM links to this post

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Goldman Sachs Extends Its Cluelessness On China

Goldman Sachs has spent years blowing utter bullshit to anyone who would listen as it pertained to the China fantasy and we wrote that all of this mainstream media and Wall Street hooey was nothing but pure propaganda along the way. Now their chief economist pushes his head even further up his arse with some great insight on China allowing their currency to float upward. As we have written over and over, the yuan is headed south whether that is accomplished via communist government decree to make exports more attractive or because the Chinese economy collapses and by extension so does the currency.

Could some interim float see the yuan trade marginally higher for some period of time if hot money plows into the country and pushes it higher? Sure I would guess that could happen. I'm also planning my personal space flight to Pluto. But eventually that hot money is going to get the hammer via a weaker currency.

We can pretty much assume all of the major themes Goldman Sachs believed to be true over the long haul are going to be wrong. Not as a contrarian statement but because they will be proven to be completely incompetent as they were on their call for $300 oil, investing in Dubai, a weakening dollar, the emerging market story, the commodity supercycle, the long term viability of China and on and on and on. All things we have said were lies as they were being perpetrated by the crooks on Wall Street and their henchmen in the media.

Goldman Sachs has one major competency that has allowed them to mint money. That is of legally bribing government officials with heavy lobbying and by the insertion of former employees into government positions in the regulatory and legislative process to get policy which tilts the game in their favor. In other words, their competency is in rigging markets they want to compete in. The next one they are trying to rig is Cap & Trade.

Their understanding of fundamentals-driven markets and economics has been and continues to be mostly wrong.

posted by TimingLogic at 4:21 PM links to this post

Monday, February 15, 2010

New York Times Falls On Its Face In Glorifying Genetic Engineering Without Proper Risk Or Ethics Controls

Back when the Chicken Littles were squawking that the sky was falling with Peak Oil, we wrote that the hounds of hell had been unleashed in American laboratories and other countries around the world and it would eventually suck to be an oil fiefdom. ie, We were going to innovate ourselves off of oil at some point. That will continue to happen whether we have oil at $100 or at $10 because the issue isn't necessarily one of price. It's one of cost. There is a substantial difference as we wrote back then. Additionally, humanity's inquisitiveness is not predicated on capitalism. It's predicated on the search for truth. Seekers of truth realize this. Capitalists often don't because they generally seek to control rather than participate in the search for truth. So they whine that regulation will stifle human ingenuity. Hardly. Bureaucracy stifles ingenuity. Capitalists simply attempt to exploit inquisitiveness for monetary gain. Or to suppress it since bureaucracy is obviously not interested in the search for truth but instead for the perpetuation of power. Hence the foundation of much of our economic model. Is it any wonder that big business and big government are so intertwined? They are both run by the same power-seeking bureaucrats. Bureaucratic monopoly is so destructive to our economy and our democracy. That is in fact the dynamic which took down the Soviet Union and is having a similar impact on our economy for the exact same reasons. That is, the bureaucratic suppression of self-determination and its natural outcome - inquisitiveness.

Anyway, we have also written quite about about a lack of bioethics and risk controls and an appreciation for the power of mother nature as it pertains to genetically tampering with nature. I have a substantial concern about what humankind is capable of creating by cavalierly "toying" with nature's DNA and being too foolish to understand the consequences until after we had killed half of the world's people, wiped out the natural biodiversity so necessary for the perpetuation of life or some other catastrophe. This is a very, very, very serious issue. An issue any knowledgeable scientist would be terribly concerned about. And most critically-thinking scientists are.

The loose journalism in this New York Times article is astounding to me. This article might have been focused on the incredible ethical and environmental risks of playing with life forces we clearly do not understand in any detail. The most capable genetic researchers in the world today have no idea what they don't know. And that is an unbelievable enormous amount. Our scientific knowledge in genetics is akin to that of a new born baby's knowledge of the keys to the universe. To then glorify giving ill-qualified students this ability to toy with nature with seemingly no risk controls is horrifying to me. And it should be to you.

On a positive note, the fury of ingenuity is hard at work. Yet a gut check is in order. If we don't learn how to more effectively manage risk in this process, some day the world will surely deal with the consequences.
posted by TimingLogic at 9:06 AM links to this post

Sunday, February 14, 2010

Populism And Volcker Saber Rattling Means Serious Trouble For Goldman Sachs


None of Goldman's business model contributes to wealth creation in the American economy - something we have highlighted before. I'm not just talking about trading. I'm talking about all of their lines of business. And I am talking from a factual economic standpoint, not an opinion. In other words Goldman Sachs does nothing to increase the capital stock of society. One really needs to understand capital to appreciate what I am saying. The perception of wealth creation at Goldman Sachs is accomplished though the transfer of wealth. We have been on this bee line throughout all of 2009 when the entire world thought Goldman Sachs had won the war through its cozy relationship with lawmakers. (Not to mention we were bearish on Goldman before the market crashed.)

We are the only source talking about this but I can assure you it is very real and very serious for Goldman whether they yet realize it. (They probably don't. It's not really surprising since a lot of what we have talked about seemed irrelevant at the time we first posted it.)

If the populist movement gains substantial traction, and I have been anticipating it will for years, (and it will come to pass.) Goldman is going to be in very, very serious trouble as society clamps down on a vast array of destructive business practices. That goes well beyond trading. While it would be a very extreme outcome, as we wrote early in 2009, if Goldman does not successfully transform their business model, they could literally go the way of the Dodo bird. This sounds wildly implausible today but remember so did many of the other issues we have written about that are now starting to come to pass or already have.
posted by TimingLogic at 10:38 AM links to this post

Friday, February 12, 2010

A Reason For Hope - 81% Of Americans Say Vote The Whores Out Of Congress

posted by TimingLogic at 8:02 AM links to this post

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Volume Count For New York Stock Exchange Reached Largest Extreme Since 1995 Price Pivot On The Week Of January 11th, Just Days Before Market Weakness

I had mentioned in my post on January 22 that I would have this up within a handful of days. Well, one thing led to another but better late than never.

The chart below is one we showed in a post back in 2009 soon after this rally started. It has obviously been updated. The most recent few weeks aren't reflected since I pulled the data two weeks ago but that really is irrelevant. (update: the graphic is now current.)

Below in blue italicized text are remarks taken from the original post in early 2009:

..similarly with volatility, volume is one of the least understood and analyzed tools in quantitative analysis. And, it is almost always completely discounted by chartists and other forms of technical analysis. Over the years I developed a count-based algorithm that is substantially based on market activity rather than made-up rules using counts to measure exhaustion in the market. ie, Demark's tools. Behind the visual representation below (In red) is a count-based algorithm of specific volume characteristics on the New York Stock Exchange. But the market is the determinant of counts in my work as opposed to Demark's work which uses rules that really don't reflect market reality.

On that note, certain patterns or rhythms exist within markets. These patters are very similar regardless of time frame. In other words, whether it be a monthly, weekly, daily or intraday view there are certain rhythms to the market that are common across all time frames. Below we have the same count-based volume algorithm overlaid on an intraday, daily, weekly and monthly chart of the S&P 500. I use the S&P simply because it is most representative of the overall U.S. and global economy.

If one is to consider we could eventually reach an exhaustion level of zero on the month data as this cycle winds down, and there are ample fundamental reasons to believe we may reach some absurdly low level, and even hit zero months before a price bottom, we will likely have more large price drops at some point in the future. But, from a weekly perspective, it would also be possible to see price advance substantially higher into the 1000-1100 region of the S&P before we take any such plunge. An upside price band I do believe we highlighted early in the year at a time no one thought such a move possible. That may or may not happen. But, the possibility does exist were we to see the market reach count extremes of 10-ish on the weekly data.


Those last few sentences in bold text were in fact exactly what has happened since the original post highlighting this algorithm. We hit 1100 on the S&P and we hit a reading of exactly 10 on the weekly algorithm count on the week of January 11th, 2010 as the market was making new rally highs as seen on the graphic below. Funny how that worked out. Or is it?



In the aforementioned original post we showed count-based looks at this algorithm on daily, weekly, monthly and intraday graphics. Above we simply have an updated weekly view. We are now at a point where this rally marginally exceeds the highest algorithm count of any rally since Wall Street's Frankenstein took its first breath in the mid 90s. That being a relative algorithm count of 10 as shown on the graphic above. The highest count relative count before this rally was 9. (Absolute being the actual reading on the right vertical axis of the graphic. Relative being the delta taken from the count level reading before the rally and at the rally's peak.) We see every time we have had a rally with a cycle count of 6 or greater, we have been close to peaking for some relatively lengthy period of time. When we have seen a relative cycle count maximum of 9, we have eventually witnessed either months or longer of consolidation or outright crash. We have now reached an unprecedented relative count reading of 10. Obviously, this alone doesn't tell us what the market will do in coming months but the probabilities from this data point do not match the level of incredible enthusiasm we now witness with the Wall Street herd. Enthusiasm based purely on opinion rather than any indication of what the market is telling us.

In fact, I read commentary from a well-respected source on Wall Street just as this algorithm was peaking that he expects a melt-up in stock prices from this point. To see that happen would require an unprecedented break with market rhythms. Ironically, a second well-respected commenteur and hedge fund manager made similar market "melt upward" remarks right before the initial market collapse in 2008. A time when this count algorithm was warning of impending weakness. Now this second person was calling for a 5-10% correction a few weeks ago. Again at a time when this algorithm is possibly pointing to greater concerns. Then there is a very well-respected economist who, just days before this weakness started, said he doesn't see a market correction until the second half of the year. This economist missed the 2009 rally and instead was very bearish as this algorithm had reached a level of zero and instead had started to rise as the market made one final push lower into March of 2009 thus pointing to a possible rally developing. Not to mention he missed the monetary policy actions fueling the rally - as an economist he clearly should have understood this dynamic. Now this economist has again changed his outlook just since a few weeks ago as the market proves him wrong. You would recognize all three of these gentlemen as well-respected members of the finance engine in the U.S. but they'll remain anonymous because I want to make a point rather than being overly concerned about what particular personalities are saying.

That point is science, be it fact or theory, no matter how simplistic, is basing analysis on some type of measurable or observable reality. Most everything I write on here as it pertains to markets is based on some level of scientific observation or analysis. That includes my writings on China, emerging markets, the banking crisis, the Euro zone, commodities as an investment or asset class or any of my other incessant babblings. That doesn't mean I am always going to share what that science is or that I will always be correct, but as the brilliant Louis Pasteur told us, "In the fields of observation, chance favors only the prepared mind.". The three gentlemen above and most of Wall Street are seldom prepared as have seen repeatedly. So why do we listen to them? Well, as a matter of fact, fewer people than at any time in our history are listening to anyone other than themselves. And what a wonderful world it will be when we all believe in no one other than ourselves, our family and friends and our own analysis of any data be it stocks, health care, democracy or anything else. A world where diverse ideas are embraced. Where common folk dream dreams that nobility tells them are unattainable. Were we all re-embrace the enlightenment of free thought and self-determination. Where our dreams are made reality when we are allowed to act upon them without some bureaucrat standing in our way.

My point is Wall Street commentary based on opinion versus any type of measurable market reality is useless. Frankly, as is political commentary without understanding and analysis of facts. All three of the people (mentioned above) and more were and are making commentary diametrically opposed to what this count algorithm and by conclusion what market rhythms were telling is at the peak in 2008, at the bottom in 2009 or today. Or, frankly for the matter, commentary diametrically opposed to a substantial number of other quantifiable factors. And, as that goes, if one had only used this count mechanism and simply bought the market when we reached low readings, and sold when we reached relative count levels of 6-9 (or absolute count levels of 9-11) and corresponding times of price weakness, one would have participated in every rally in the last fifteen years while missing every period of market weakness including more than a few collapses. Now, I don't use this algorithm as a primary timing tool and am not advocating such a position but it's a far better than listening to babble. Obviously at some point in time market dynamics may change, but I doubt they will change until we see financial reform or some other measurable change which could possibly impact financial markets.

Additional to the absolute or relative count metrics provided by this algorithm, there is a cyclicality or rhythm to the counts. We remarked of this in our post last year where we used this algorithm to anticipate the next possible price lows. The dates for those anticipated lows we discussed back in early 2009 still stand.

Let me put this another way. This market has not started to exhibit weakness because President Obama made remarks about regulating banks - something we have known was coming for a long time yet the markets continually shrugged off any such concerns for the last ten months. Nor is it weak because people are finally starting to talk about the scope of this crisis outside of the United States. Something that we have uniquely been hammering on for years. Instead, this market is weak because the natural rhythms of the market are telling us it is time to be weak. It's that simple.

Toppings can be complex structures so no one really knows if the market will chop for some period of time, fall completely out of bed in coming weeks, levitate for some period of time or completely discount this algorithm all together and roar to strong new price highs. Yet, if we follow the last 15 years, (since Wall Street's current manipulation of financial markets really started) we are very likely close to a change in trend. We could very well be within some matter of weeks or months of a major top. That could involve relative chop followed by another major market drop or a continued rapid dump or some combination if this algorithm continues to have any validity. This just as Wall Street, drunk with free taxpayer money used to fuel their constant stupidity, became the most bullish in decades. And more importantly, has allocated enormous sums of money reflecting that stupidity. Money that will eventually be sent to money heaven forever and ever and ever.

Finally, no one in the mainstream blogosphere, media or financial community is calling for new lows in equity markets yet this cycle. And I do mean no one. There are a few crazy outliers such as this blog who still anticipating new price lows. That is because the mainstream seemingly have no idea how to value equities, what is driving this crisis, the global horror of it and what dynamics will almost surely force the market down to such low levels. Of course, I could be the one who is wrong. I'm sure we are going to find out.

Again, it isn't debt as we have written so often. Debt is now seemingly the only topic everyone wants to write about. That's because it is so easily recognizable as a coincident data point. It is easily apparent to everyone the problem is now debt. And a mistruth perpetuated by many reinforcing this myth is that debt was the cause of the Great Depression. I could solve a vast amount of the debt problem in about ten minutes as it pertains to the United States. It won't fix the economy but it would yield time so that policy decisions could be made to fix the economy. There are a wealth of easily instituted solutions to many of the U.S.'s problems which would blindside the debt critics. Not that keepers of the status quo are going to stand up and proactively institute these solutions. They are the problem. They'll perpetuate the status quo for their own personal gain as long as they are allowed to. The U.S. economy would start roaring almost immediately with the right policies. And I do mean roar.

My point? Our downside target on the S&P remains 200-450 as it has for quite a few years. Technically, we adjusted our original downside target of 400-450 off of the 1995 S&P price pivot to 200-450 a year ago. Fair value for the S&P is around 400-450 but due to the combination of lack of constructive economic changes and horrendous policy decisions which were being enacted. President Obama now owns this crisis with his policy decisions regardless of who created it. His head is in the right place. His policy is written on toilet paper scribed while visiting the outhouse. (For partisans who believe our President is the anti-Christ or something similar, the corporatist policies of Washington Republicans would be even worse. This is a party whose leadership hailed the recent fraudulent Supreme Court ruling on unlimited campaign funds by corporations as a positive ruling.) How, if and when the S&P gets to that target is well too complicated to predict but until I see some specific economic and policy decisions instituted, (which I clearly don't expect without first experiencing a full-blown global crisis) my downside target holds as does every other macro theme we have discussed over the years. As I have said numerous times, whenever a major macro theme changes, we will acknowledge it and write about it. Until then, you should assume nothing has changed in my work.

Enjoy the party. It's the biggest gala in centuries.
posted by TimingLogic at 5:32 AM links to this post

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

How Goldman Sachs Used Fuzzy Math To Help Greece Hide Its Debt Crisis

posted by TimingLogic at 3:16 PM links to this post

President Obama Doesn't Begrudge Bonuses For "Savvy"Banksters Who Destroyed The World

Just months ago the President called bankster bonuses out as being unconscionable or some similar term. Now he compares "savvy" Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan CEO bonuses to professional athletes? Baaahaaa!!! I'll put that up on JokeOfTheDay.com

This remark was made for a BusinessWeek interview and I can only imagine the President thought this would slip through given the narrow readership for the magazine. It's obvious to me what is going on here. The Dummycrats are trying to stem the tide of Wall Street donations to the Republikaaners which now seems to be taking place with talk of reigning in Wall Street. My post early in 2009 comparing President Obama to President Hoover, who led the country into the Great Depression because of his learned idiocy, is proving more than prescient.

It's no coincidence that JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs were very large donors to the Obama Presidential campaign now is it?

Savvy? You must be kidding me. I think the President needs to go back to Harvard for some re-education. If one would add up all of the involvement in financial backstopping in the American economy, the federal government has propped up about $20 trillion dollars worth of Wall Street created trash and economic assets. That's $150,000 for every person with a job in the United States. If your spouse works, you get to double that. Savvy? This utter bullshit about banks paying back the TARP is a ruse. Pay back the $20 trillion in fraud. And your trillions in bonuses paid over the last fifteen years to create this and other frauds. Without this massive American taxpayer bailout, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs would be gone. Who care's about TARP? That is a rounding error. And if we use history as a barometer, the Bloods and the Crips might be using these CEOs as their personal manservants. So I think savvy is just a bit overrated. How about the most incompetent or fraudulent hooligans in American history. (Since we aren't investigating Wall Street for any possible fraud I don't know which term applies.) That is a little more appropriate.

Baseball players aren't federally-regulated institutions chartered with keeping society's money safe. Who then went out and committed massive fraud with our money and subsequently lost all of OUR money and paid themselves massive bonuses for doing it. And baseball players didn't then get a taxpayer bailout placed on the back of people making $7 an hour with no pension, no health insurance and often no place to live.

If these politicians aren't going to fix the mess that Washington created, I just wish they would resign. That way we don't need to wait till 2010 and 2012 to vote their incompetent asses out of office.

posted by TimingLogic at 9:40 AM links to this post

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

American Citizens On United States Federal Government Assassination List

Title Link here.

Four years ago this italicized text came across our blog as part of a larger post:

One of the most powerfully succinct writings I have ever come across as it pertains to human rights was uttered by Martin Niemoller around the end of World War II. This is a variation on a message that has been repeated by many great leaders of freedom. His quote is generally accepted to be:

First they came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up,
because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me,
and by that time there was no one
left to speak up for me.

Today we see the United States federal government has authorized the assassination of American citizens. If you believe a rule of law separates our society from that of barbaric psychopaths and tyranny, then you understand why due process is so important. And you understand why we have a written Constitution. To protect us from the whims of tyrants. From those who wish to make the rules as they so choose whenever they so choose. For when this happens, when due process is hijacked, and they come for you, who will be left to speak for you?
posted by TimingLogic at 11:37 AM links to this post

Russians Create New Winter Sport - Roof Jumping

posted by TimingLogic at 11:16 AM links to this post

The Real Dubai And UAE That The Government, Wall Street And The Main Stream Media Don't Want You To See

When CNBC, Goldman Sachs and other generally blabbering fools were bullish on Dubai and the Middle East, we were incredibly bearish on the oil fiefdoms. And while I am not predicting it, as we have written numerous times, I would not be surprised to see oil fall back to $10 a barrel in coming years - a price we saw a little over a decade ago. (For new readers, we wrote of the coming collapse in oil and that it would likely settle in the $30's before rising again. And we did well before it happened. The market rewarded us with this perspective because that is exactly what happened. In other words, I have some reality-based perspective far from the yapping Wall Street-induced Peak Oil crowd who was caught totally off guard by oil's collapse. Peak Oil was brought to you by the same people who brought you the energy trading fraud of Enron - that would be Wall Street. The same fraudulent hooligans who are trying to push Cap & Trade down our throat. When was the last time you read about Peak Oil with the biggest oil glut in history? Because that is what we are witnessing. It's just a matter of time until oil speculators get their butts handed to them again. Especially if the Enron-style oil markets are regulated in some form.)

posted by TimingLogic at 9:55 AM links to this post

The Fraud Of Foreclosure

It's no great surprise that Wall Street, banks and mortgage companies conspired in unprecedented fraud to create the housing bubble so why would it be a surprise to see similar fraud in the foreclosure process?

There would have been no housing bubble with a public banking system. There would have been no internet bubble. There would have been no collapse of Wall Street in 2008 where the government has backstopped more than $100,000 for every working American to keep our financial system from collapsing.

The greatest fraud of all is that our government entrusts private interests to protect society's money.
posted by TimingLogic at 9:31 AM links to this post

Monday, February 08, 2010

In A Show Of Great Democracy In Action, Wall Street Mobsters aka Corporate Persons Shift Their Legal Bribery From Democrats To Republicans

posted by TimingLogic at 12:08 PM links to this post

Our Incredible Shrinking Democracy

Robert Reich pens a post capturing what we have been talking about for years. While I appreciate Mr. Reich for being one of the few persons to serve political office whom is not an ideologue and who is really a populist in his political views, I think he misses the very point driving an issue he accurately captures - our democracy has been hijacked.

Reich remarks of a desire to have conservatives focus on the real issue. That is "small" democracy rather than big government. But the issue of small democracy is indeed substantially influenced by big government. We have small democracy because special interests have hijacked our federal government. Special interests have hijacked our government because they see economic benefit in doing so. They see economic benefit to doing so because national government has and continues to play a major and dysfunctional role in our economy. This dynamic has been building for decades and is driven by a political apparatus in Washington, regardless of party, which has taken on a role very similar to that of the English aristocracy before the American Revolution.

Our federal government holds court to the highest bidder regardless of whether that is Goldman Sachs, Conagra, Dupont Nemours, Monsanto, General Electric, Boeing, Lockheed, IBM, Walmart, The Chamber of Commerce, multiple Washington think tanks such as The Cato Institute, The Heritage Foundation, The Brookings Institute, Saudi Arabia, China or any other bureaucracy with deep pockets and a willingness to buy influence with the Washington aristocracy. The American Revolution in its base form was driven by a desire for local self-rule rather than listening to the entitlement of English aristocracy half a world away. This exact same dynamic now exists in Washington. Small democracy.

Many of our founding fathers clearly understood the potential for this dynamic to develop. For goodness sake, they fought the English because of this very reason. That is why they gave very explicit Constitutional powers to the federal government. And, explicitly gave any powers not granted to the federal government to the states. States Rights. It doesn't matter whether you are a political conservative or progressive, there is no substantial representation in Washington. Just as there was no substantial representation for the colonies in England. Were our democracy functioning as it should, that is with a Constitutionally-defined role for our federal and state governments, our economy would be fine. And there would be little benefit for large bureaucracies to be paying the Washington aristocracy for favors. That is, because our federal government would be fulfilling its Constitutionally-mandated role rather than doing any thing it so desires. In other words, a national government run amok. Instead, the federal powers defined by our Constitution have been trampled. A substantial amount of the Washington bureaucracy has trampled State's Rights and gone well beyond Constitutional authority. Were that to happen, Washington and our federal bureaucracy would be substantially smaller than it is today. So, indeed, big government is the problem.

It is not just conservatives who are frustrated with Washington's aristocracy, it is anyone who believes in democracy and who understands the dysfunction in Washington.

posted by TimingLogic at 5:59 AM links to this post

Sunday, February 07, 2010

The Great Peasant Revolt Of 2010

posted by TimingLogic at 11:25 AM links to this post

Friday, February 05, 2010

How Big Banks, Powerful Lobbyists, Sneaky Attorneys, And A Host Of Businessmen Funnel Dirty Cash Into The U.S.

It has been a few years since we have talked about unregulated capital, but indeed this is a primary driver of today's global economic collapse. And almost no one understands this dynamic - deregulation to the nth degree. We have remarked of criminal money flows in the past and the fact that capital is unregulated allows seamy goons, crooked governments and the like to legitimize their dealings through global finance.

More dirty stories about banking mobsters and their lobbyists that the status quo most assuredly doesn't want you to hear about. Can you imagine these stories as headline stories in the major newspapers or major television news outlets? You must be kidding.



Most people would literally dump a load in their britches if they realized the extent of the fraud we see before us. Alice in Wonderland here we come.
posted by TimingLogic at 4:43 PM links to this post

Bernanke Again Calls Fed Independence Critical To Economy - More Of The Big Lie. Will The Bullshit Ever End? When We The People Make It So.

Any confidence I have had in the system is now completely gone. The fraud and corruption that has been so blatantly exposed over the last year is well beyond anything I ever could have imagined. Ultimately, the more people who completely chuck an invalid belief system, the greater chance we could actually get transformational reform.

That Bernanke keeps blabbering about this same bullshit tells me something is seriously rotten at the Federal Reserve. We wrote quite some time ago that the secrets at the Federal Reserve could actually turn out to be horrific and possibly not even related to this crisis. As I wrote at the time, I would be more inclined to believe the Fed is involved in some unsavory monetization schemes to support America's hegemony around the world.

Regardless, complete transparency must be achieved at the Federal Reserve. How does that impact independence? It doesn't. Additionally, Federal Reserve policy is about as independent from the Congress as Al Capone was independent from his gambling and prostitution operations. The similarities here are endless. We have politicians begging Wall Street for donations and arguing their stand against regulation of our banking system should be reason for Wall Street to donate billions (Isn't this a high crime against the sovereign of this country?) Then we have Wall Street throwing money at any form of legislation including cap and trade.

Federal Reserve independence? A farce! You know Adolph Hitler told us that if leaders tell a great lie enough, you can convince people it is actually true. The Big Lie. How many Big Lies can you identify? Let's see. Let the free market decide. Federal Reserve independence is critical to the economy. Our founding fathers believed in free-for-all economics. First we heard regulation would not have stopped this crisis and now it is proprietary trading had nothing to do with this crisis. President Obama is a socialist (does anyone even know what a socialist is?) Global warming will doom us all. Cap and trade is necessary to fight global warming. The Food and Drug administration actually protects the American people. We are fighting two wars to defend liberty. Bill Clinton was a great President. Peak oil. Peak Commodities. China will overtake the U.S. economy. China is an economic miracle. Our private banking system serves democracy and self-determination of all Americans and a public banking system would be socialism. The healthcare reform bill will cut costs. The President's jobs bill will create millions of new jobs. The federal government is freezing spending. I'd say that's a start.
posted by TimingLogic at 11:08 AM links to this post

Thursday, February 04, 2010

Washington Republican Leaders Go Groveling To Wall Street For Campaign Contributions And Expose Themselves As Anti-Democratic Corporatists

Update: (Original link to the Wall Street Journal in the title.) The Huffington Post has picked up on this Wall Street story about Republican piggery and is now reporting both stories. First, that the Republicans are slobbering all over themselves to take Wall Street's financial support from the Democrats. And conversely, the Democrats apparently have responded that indeed they are the party of Wall Street and plan on protecting their investment in Wall Street.

The leadership of both parties are generally profligate sleaze bags who care more about lining their pockets with lobbyist money than actually doing the will of the American people.
posted by TimingLogic at 12:51 PM links to this post

GDP And A Few Remarks About Relevant Yet Farcical White House Comments

Same GDP graphic as as always. Inventory builds accounted for more than 50% of GDP growth. That's a winner. In other words, fuggedboudit. It's a one time anomaly. Interestingly imports continue to be terrible. What a surprise. Not really. :) Don't expect the short term export bulge to last either.


So, let's break down some faulty rhetoric out of Washington as it pertains to GDP and the economy.

Once again, I will qualify these remarks that I have respect for our President as a person. That doesn't mean I worship the emperor's every move as many ideologists do. I want results and won't give an inch until I see them. Because unlike crafty and often smarmy politicians who never stand for anything, ( ie believe in compromise on issues of morality and character) leadership never compromises on issues of virtue and morality. Compromise on issues of justice, integrity and character are by definition an assault on leadership. This in itself should be telling as to why politicians should never, ever be trusted. That their words should be verified by actions and transparency. This Presidenct is a masterful politician but has shown little leadership. This Presidency has been nothing but compromise on issues of morality, justice and the rule of law. Rhetoric? Well, that's great. You can talk all day long. Leadership is what this country needs. Leadership realizes its greatest responsibility is to empower the individual and society. Neither party has any claim to nor have they fulfilled any leadership. The leadership void across business and society is larger than ever.

So, the President is out campaigning this week. In some effort to try to defend himself and the Dummycrats, he is out giving public speeches. He should be focusing on policy and leading the country through actions. But let's look at two points the President has made repeatedly this week that are nonsense.

One, the President wants to double exports in some relatively short period of time. Nonsense. First off, without telling you exactly what is rolling around in my head, I will tell you that the American economy is not going to export its way out of this crisis. And, in fact, we could easily see employment levels drop to the lowest levels in modern history without increasing our exports one iota. Faulty economics. Faulty logic. Faulty policy. It won't work. Additionally, the entire world wants to save its domestic economy by exporting. Japan, China, Korea, Germany, France, Brazil, India and on and on and on. That doesn't even include the commodity countries of Canada, Brazil, Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and on and on and on. One of my very first posts on here addressed this issue. Who the hell is going to buy a doubling of our exports? That would be no one.

Secondly, the President sees our way out of this crisis as providing a better education to everyone in society. And, he argues that we can all agree on this point. Nonsense. This is a completely invalid statement in its most base form. I will agree that our primary educational system is a mess. But, it's a mess because politicians want it to be a mess. How is any kid in Compton, California or East St. Louis, Illinois ever given a legitimate opportunity of self-determination with our current educational system? But because of politics, you have to rob from Peter to pay Paul in order to address this issue. Good luck. But let's focus on the President's remarks. You know, like all of us receiving MBAs similar to the masters of the universe who destroyed our economy. Or, like all of the tens of thousands of lawyers lobbying our government and lining pockets of politicians.

This quote has come across my blog many times over the years including our posts on the industrial economy and lean methods:

"We are justly proud of the high wage rates which prevail throughout our country and jealous of any interference with them by the products of the cheaper labor of other countries. To maintain this condition, to strengthen our control of home markets and, above all, to broaden our opportunities in foreign markets where we must compete with the products of other industrial nations, we should welcome and encourage every influence tending to increase the efficiency of our productive processes"
--Henry Towne, President of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1911

A profoundly simple statement by a profoundly brilliant Henry Towne. Compare that to the rhetoric of today. Now, does the President believe we are all going to become microbiologists? The only way that can happen is if we lower the standards for microbiologists, thus defeating the purpose of becoming one. It is important that everyone in a democracy is educated. Some of that may or may not involve formal education. Much of that involves being informed. If I can read, write and reason I can be informed. That involves a very minor amount of formal education and more time spent in self-discovery. How many educated people on Wall Street were informed of the coming crisis? Remember, that is what they are educated to tell us. I would say just about none of them. That includes the slobbering idiots who run Goldman Sachs, Lehman, Merrill, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bear Stearns who paid themselves handsomely using shareholder and then taxpayer money.

Yes our educational system is very important. But, then what about the millions of people who work in our factories? As laborers on our farms? Or attendants in our hotels? Or any other countless number of necessary jobs? What is the President's new educational plan going to teach them that is relevant to their employment? How to solve Pythagorean's Theorem? Or are they all expected to become microbiologists as well? And when they become microbiologists, who would do their jobs? Oh yeah, I forgot. The slave labor of illegal immigrants. Labor hired without paying Medicare, Social Security and often even a living wage. And how is that economically beneficial to either the average American or legal immigrants? Well, it is beneficial to the ruling class. Now, how again is the President's educational plan going to fix our economy?

What the President should be focused on are policies which allow every single American, starting with our children, to lead a self-determined life. And, thereby being able to achieve the very limits of their own abilities determined by their desire and God-given talents. That's it. How would the President actually accomplish this? Well, first of all, he'd do less talking and more listening. Something a leader would naturally understand. But instead of listening to lobbyists and Washington pundits, he would listen to the American people. The Maybe it's the President who needs an education in listening, economics, markets, democracy and history. But then were our country and economy operating as it should, without thirty years of meddling by lobbyists and profligate politicians, the economy wouldn't be relying on a single person's thinking to determine our economic fate. I think we sent a message as it pertains to this ideology when we booted the British troops and their king out of our economy and our country two hundred years ago. This isn't an indictment of our President who has his heart in the right place but rather of a broken model which needs fixed.

To start with, maybe the President should go back and read Henry Towne's remarks from one hundred years ago. If he doesn't, some future Presidential candidate will.
posted by TimingLogic at 5:28 AM links to this post